I'm not too across historical changes. But they do make small changes in every iteration - both additions and killing off watches. More avantgarde with Tudor whose brand is growing.

 

This article is awesome. Thanks for sharing it!

 

Little awkward, since guy is also the “don’t buy the new Speedmaster” guy

 

I don’t much like the new dials but I can see what they are trying to do.

much of Rolex’s model book is quite classic - the new dials they have released keep the classic cases but add more ‘pop’ in the dials for those that like that kind of thing. Much like the OP’s which I didn’t like last year.

While I may not like them. It may keep the watches more relevant for others - so a good thing in their book I guess.

once the insta crowd get their hands on the cannabis dial, I bet it’s more popular than we think - while the demand for existing hot models will always be there.

 

Rolex has one of the best marketing teams in the world. Everything they do is highly thought out and strategic, they know what the overall market wants and what the market will buy. The 36mm two-tone Explorer may not be a huge hit in the US but it may be on fire in China where the population and demand dwarfs the US market.
The Asian market is also where the 36mm 74000 series Tudors are still being produced. There is such a demand for them there yet that series was discontinued in the US and Europe in the 90s.

 

I’m ok with equal opportunity criticism of both brands. The video is still hilarious. I can’t get “palm fronds” out of my head.

 

They may have watches that don't appeal to you or some others, but it is often the Rolex watch that is less main stream that becomes the sought after collectible in future years.

 

Will there really be any fun to collecting though? With all the modern safe queens and grey dealer stock, "NIB/NOS" specimens of recent references will be fairly common as opposed to when they were used as tools.

 

I was just reading an article that touched on some of the same points that I've been pointing out on this forum to members for a while now. People need to be careful what brands and watches they buy as we've most likely hit peak demand. If I had multiple Rolex, I would sell most of them. As Buffett says, be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful.

https://www.scmp.com/magazines/styl...-watch-really-better-swiss-timepiece-heritage

 

The secondary market dealers have inventory that is mostly mainstream because they buy low and sell high. Also they only buy what is most popular with the average buyer. Simple example that everyone has seen is the green dial Daytona. In 2016, no one wanted one. You could order this configuration from the AD. Then a Rolex collector who buys watches with unique dial configurations was quoted on an internet forum called Hoodinkee asking if anyone noticed this watch. Same with green dial DD40. 28K on the secondary market when first introduced, now 50k asking price. When Oyster perpetulal came out last year many didn't like the colorful dials. Now try to buy one at retail. If you have been looking at Rolex watches over the years you have the Instagram hype watches, then you have the watches that only collectors will buy and hold. And to me yes there is always fun to collecting just look in the other direction for a moment until the rest of the crowd catches up.

 

There seemed to be a lot of talk of the 'John Mayer' Daytona being discontinued - I'm assuming that didn't happen. Anybody know what got discontinued?

 

...not to mention the ‘guy who fawns over the same 2tone sub and seadweller’, which imho are equally as horrible. Imho he would have the perfect collection if he added this one to make a trio.

 

Two words sum it all up.....

PALM FRONDS

 

While you’ve been flogging *similar* (-ish) points to this article for quite a while, this article is unlikely to give you any new traction for - just to name - a few reasons:

(1) there continues to be nearly zero data to suggest that smart watches are eating into any material portion of the segment of watches we on these forums care about; instead, the segment of Swiss watches that are being made obsolete by smart watches are quartz, or low-end mechanicals (which trend seems relevant but basically ignored by the article you cite).

(2) in fact, the data that does exist shows a rise in both the number of units and MSRP (mostly the latter) of the modern watches we on forums like this care about (I both admit but also insist that COVID has injected externalities on the most recent data that are too hard to tease out yet, perhaps explaining why the article you cited doesn’t really bother even trying to deal with the nuance)

(3) by-in-large, people on this forum with any experience don’t care if we’ve hit peak modern demand and pricing; we’re unlikely to buy an “inflated” modern piece unless it’s consciously scratching a sentimental or care-to-the-wind sort of itch, or we’re lucky enough our incomes de-risk the purchase

(4) fourth and finally, the central points of critique that both you and those like the author have been flogging are probably best epitomized by the Rolex family, which - like it or don’t - appears on paper to be thriving better than any other Swiss luxury manufacturer, which tends to suggest something’s “off” in the flogging. Could it’s time be coming? Sure. But nothing succeeds like success.

Besides, aren’t you the guy who for almost two years years has been repeatedly insisting Rolex must make MORE watches to not be evil? A bit ironic, if now it’s true they must also heed your warning and brace themselves for peak demand...

 

That was pure gold (no, not two tone)...thanks for posting it!

 

Innovator's Dilemma. Do you know it? Disrupters always start from the low end. Right now, you can see it in action in the camera industry. I think I've mentioned this many times already in my other posts and yet you're somehow blind to it?

Again, I've already given you data from fhs.swiss showing that the numbers for the >$3k segment have NOT increased for the past 5 years. Hence, the price increases. Ceteris paribus, if you raise prices faster than unit decreases or plateau, you can still grow revenues and earnings. Price increases by these Maisons are a symptom of the waning demand, not prosperity. Again, take a good look at Leica, their demand numbers go down each year but they just keep raising their prices to maintain profits.

Sure, when prices start heading down, there will be plenty of people crying on this forum. When that happens, I hope you'll be around to apologize to those you've told to keep buying into the bubble.

Bubbles are always a fun ride going up. It's the inevitable drop that's sad to behold. As the article points out, things are great until they're not. Rolex will face the same reckoning especially when all they do are things like coming up with a Marijuana dial design and calling it innovation, in addition to misleading and mistreating their customers.

No, I'm the guy that says that Rolex should stop manipulating their customers with propaganda to earn a buck. I know you think it's fantastic that someone lies to your face in order to make money from you but for most people, they think that's despicable.

 

Mid-tier B-school buzzwords. Do you know anything else?

Demand involves both units and prices willing to pay for said units, especially in luxury goods market; I revise the above mid-tier assumption to online b-school.

This is where you really betray your density. On this forum, when prices start heading down, there will be a lot of opportunity for things to return to, say, circa, 2010’s, before watch “aficionados” such as yourself left us alone, and grumpy old men were the annoying but at least endearingly so.

I’ve never told anyone to purchase anything.

And I personally have never bought a watch that costs more than a weeks’ salary. YMMV

Wow. The sheer insight is nearly blinding. But it could still be smelled from miles away.

Ok, re-revised: maybe you’ve never even been near a B-school, and hopefully whatever “tech” you’re “founding” has nothing to do with the health or wellbeing of the sentient.

 

AND 36 mm.

 

Lol I think the only interesting comment on this page. 2 words .....palm fronds. Well said..... well said .

 

Can I have a job please?