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Buy my first speedmaster or wait for new 2020 releases?

Martin_F
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B Basel1893
So I do have some news directly from the Omega Boutique in Zürich. I visited the store last week and I get surpisingly real concrete informations. In end of February Omega will announce that the 861 will be replaced with the 3861. There will be no 861 available latest by the end of 2020. Due to this they already stack the current model up in the store because they expect a huge demand increase after the offical announcement. There will be also a significant price increase due to the new movement.

I would expect a price increase between 1 & 2k. Due to this I would get one now asap.

I was told $1k extra for the 3861 by my OB a couple month back.
But you'll still be able to buy current 1861 moonwatches for a while after the new ones are released.
ADs will still have plenty in stock... That will certainly depend on your location though.
 
scapa
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Evitzee Evitzee
You can also make the argument that it would be MORE desirable to buy an 1861 Speedmaster now if Omega switches over to the 3861 movement in 2020. That would automatically make it a model 'no longer made' and would make it more desirable for future collectability. And would be cheaper to buy. If I was in the market for a new Speedmaster I'd be looking to get one with the 1861 movement before they are gone forever from dealer showcases. Even now they don't seem to be as readily available now as they were a year or so ago, either through official channels or grey market.

I agree with this. If there is a 3861-based replacement for the Speedy Pro this year I'd expect it to cost more and come with less in the way of packaging and accessories, and I absolutely expect the current models to sell briskly well into the point where they become collectible and to command a premium beyond that, probably. The current .005 is likely as close to a can't-miss Omega as there is at the moment, IMO.
 
Martin_F
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scapa scapa
I agree with this. If there is a 3861-based replacement for the Speedy Pro this year I'd expect it to cost more and come with less in the way of packaging and accessories, and I absolutely expect the current models to sell briskly well into the point where they become collectible and to command a premium beyond that, probably. The current .005 is likely as close to a can't-miss Omega as there is at the moment, IMO.

While I agree with that assessment, I don't think that's going to happen imminently. Maybe a few years down the road...
 
8100_RPM
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To add on to what Evitzee said, prices for new 1861/1863 models have also gone up in the grey market too. Back in 2017, an 1861 on a bracelet could easily be found for around $3,500. I was able to purchase mine from a well known AD for slightly more than that. Last time I checked, Jomashop’s price was $4,200.
 
B
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Martin_F Martin_F
I was told $1k extra for the 3861 by my OB a couple month back.
But you'll still be able to buy current 1861 moonwatches for a while after the new ones are released.
ADs will still have plenty in stock... That will certainly depend on your location though.

They will sell only the current stocks away... there will be no parallel production. I guess after the announcement the grey market will dry out quickly for the 861 due to this I want to buy now one asap.
 
Foo2rama
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So I talked to my rep. It’s official the 861/1861 is to be replaced by the 3861 sometime this year.

no plans for a regular production 321, no rumors on an LE either.
 
B
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Foo2rama Foo2rama
So I talked to my rep. It’s official the 861/1861 is to be replaced by the 3861 sometime this year.

no plans for a regular production 321, no rumors on an LE either.

according to the the OB in Zürich there will be a steal 321 but only 500 will be produced per year
 
McBeardy
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Could someone enlighten me on what the differences will be between the current 861 and the new 3861 due? Thanks
 
YY77
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McBeardy McBeardy
Could someone enlighten me on what the differences will be between the current 861 and the new 3861 due? Thanks
3861 is Master chronometer 0~+5S a day, anti magnetic 15000 gauss.
 
McBeardy
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YY77 YY77
3861 is Master chronometer 0~+5S a day, anti magnetic 15000 gauss.

Thank you, visually does anyone know if the Speedy will look the same? Hesalite etc? Just a movement change? Any chance of 100m WR? Haha
 
madjestikmoose
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Wait. New 1861 Moonwatches will go for big discounts when the 3861 arrives.
 
Riviera Paradise
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Foo2rama Foo2rama
So I talked to my rep. It’s official the 861/1861 is to be replaced by the 3861 sometime this year.

no plans for a regular production 321, no rumors on an LE either.

This matches information I received from my sources, but there will be an Apollo 13th 50 Anniversary in 2020, so perhaps the OP might be interested in waiting for a new Snoopy LE?

Some pros and cons:

A 1861 movement should be easier to service (well known movement) and any decent watchmaker can get it regulated to operating within COSC. My Speedy 11 45th LE has operated within -2s /+3s since Nov 2014.

The 3861 anti-magnetism +15KGauss is cool but not a compelling capability (and I am a proud AT Bumblebee owner). I think the only significant gain with the 3861 movement is hacking seconds.

Based on the recent Bond Omega Seamaster "vintage"diver, it looks like Omega has invested in larger domed sapphire crystals. I do think that if Omega do produce a new Speedy Pro with a domed sapphire crystal fully emulating the hesalite (i.e. no milky ring) + add the Apollo 11 50th bracelet + an exhibition case back with a decently decorated 3861 movement...well then they could price this watch around the US$6K range.

I would not rush to make any decision to buy now...there will still be thousands of 1861 Speedy Pros in the secondary market available below US$5K next year.

The only shitty thing is with Omega/Swatch having pulled out of Basel, we no longer have a clear date as to when they will be announcing their new releases, but based on the info we have so far it does look like around Feb 2020 there will be an announcement...so @ufoRAILGUN, hold your fire till Q2 2020. 😀
Edited:
 
Pun
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I am quite sure that prices of 005 Speedy will continue to rise now onwards if Omega has leaked its intention of replacing with 3861 by mid 2020. There will be rush to hoard them for future collectors. There are not many Moonwatches produced by Omega each year. Supply is tight even today in many markets. There will be perceptible increase in price with 3861. Omega will love to play Rolex game here.
 
64Wing
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U ufoRAILGUN
The history of the watch, the aesthetic, versatility, the brand of Omega itself. Plus I'm a huge NASA and space fan, and my career is somewhat closely related to space.

I already have my mind set on the moonwatch, but I'm also looking at the CK2998 pulsation dial LE and the A11 30th (I just love the quote on the back). And of course the grail is a snoopy (who doesn't want a snoopy?)
Hmmm...are you an AME?
 
Evitzee
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madjestikmoose madjestikmoose
Wait. New 1861 Moonwatches will go for big discounts when the 3861 arrives.
Wishful thinking I'm afraid. People will not be rushing to the ramparts to get the new movement. You can try to wait out the market and pick up an 'old' 1861 at bargain, left over prices, but I think you'll be frustrated in the number of new examples available on the market and the prices being asked. They are already getting harder to find and grey prices are creeping up, it will only get worse.
Edited:
 
Foo2rama
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mattonthewater mattonthewater
Buy a real 321 watch.
Says the guy with an 861 movement in his avatar...

CA64FBF2-8B34-4CEB-A414-CBD2819D96C6.gif
 
mattonthewater
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Foo2rama Foo2rama
Says the guy with an 861 movement in his avatar...

CA64FBF2-8B34-4CEB-A414-CBD2819D96C6.gif

Too blind to see a column wheel? Nice try though! 🤨 Stick around, you may learn a thing or two...
 
Foo2rama
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mattonthewater mattonthewater
Too blind to see a column wheel? Nice try though! 🤨 Stick around, you may learn a thing or two...
Too early in the morning. No coffee yet, and whisky tasting last night. My bad lol, trust me I know the difference.
I shall award myself an award.

79F75317-F0F2-416C-A417-414244EE20F8.png
 
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