2021... the hobby is dead ?

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Having bought my "25 years Apollo 11" Omega Speedmaster in 1994... which ran daily until 2016, and seeing the prices nowadays I believe the wristwatch hobby might be dead for "average Joe" 👎
On the one hand Omega prices for a regular new Speedmaster have gone through the roof as 3 decades ago "average Joe" could buy a Speedmaster which cost him/her a monthly paycheck. Anno 2021 who has a netto paycheck of US $ 7000.00 let alone US $ 14000.00 ?
On the other hand auction prices have gone into the 100K (e.g. November 2021 Phillips auction results)... crazy prices which can only be paid by wristwatch dealers or investors who want to diversify their portfolio, going from real estate, large agricultural terrains, classic cars and nowadays vintage watches.
Then again, within a decade You won't be able to drive Your vintage Ferrari but You'll still be able to wear Your 1960s Speedmaster.
Being an amateur astronomer and becoming an "old" man, I know that observation, not age brings wisdom... 🤔
So what are we observing here ?
In 1994 there were no specialized wristwatch auctions and there was no internet spreading information worldwide.
Since the new millennium it has been clear that there's a growing difference between the watch world and the (existing) watch community.
But even the latter has changed. Who pays these astronomical prices?
Investors, speculators, close contacts to auction houses... "nouveau riche" millionaires (Middle East, China, ...) ?
Just imagine it might be a pure "pre-Millennial" group of collectors who buy these watches of their dreams... will these retain value or drop to almost zero as the new young generation "Millennials", who (currently) are not interested at all at wristwatches, won't be buying these wristwatches at auctions in the future ?
Last but not least, it's not all negative as wristwatches are the item of reuse by excellence and some astounding auction amounts went to charity !
What do You think
 
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I have to agree. I am also of the mind that it was only recently I would say to friends, watch enthusiasts and collectors that when you bought a watch you knew it wasn't an investment but a personal and aesthetic choice and often your selection, after a long hunt, could be full of historical and enviable provenance. But never an investment per se; in deed, expect to sell it on for less or if you were lucky get your money back. So the hobby is being invaded by horological carpetbaggers (to put it kindly) to invest in selected brands, Patek, Rolex, VC among others where the rules of veblen goods favours them. I guess one of the questions I also have from what you say is where does the nascent watch hobbyist, with limited funds, turn to scratch the itch? Vintage? A minefield to walk and prices to match. Tier 2 & 3 watches? Cost factor again. Perhaps re-issues will open a door where the budding hobbyist can buy into a brand's historical context for a "reasonable" price suffice a lesser movement in most cases. I don't know, but I do know yours is a great post @SpeedyPhill to get some thoughts on a topic that has been bubbling away for sometime now.

Is the hobby dead...? No I don't think so, but like old lawyers they just don't end abruptly they just lose their appeal.

🍿🍿
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Indeed... the hobby is not dead but with respect to early 1960s toolwatches it's at the Intensive care department
 
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Mr Speedy — the hobby isn’t what it used to be, that’s for sure. Recently, I know of a handful of what I used to call faithful collectors, leave the hobby all together. One is a trailblazer who helped identify rare dial variations in the early days of collecting. Back then, the prize for discovery was communal recognition and adoration. Today, it gets you nothing, because the new generation of collectors don’t appreciate the details as much. They have a wad full of cash in their pocket willing to spend on watch seen on TikTok.

As I said in a previous post, I’m inching closer to exiting as well for reasons mentioned above. The hobby will never be dead, but the light that once burned endlessly deep inside seems to be fading. I don’t have the urge to share findings or get as much thrill in scoring a good deal. It’s probably where I am in life, but man, I miss the old days of buying Speedys for nothing and talking to friends about each small nuance.

Auctions and dealers have certainly contributed to the general state of collecting. Seems that prices on popular brands are escalating on a weekly basis. It’s not sustainable, but for now it’s where we are. Stupid money being thrown around with no end in sight.
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Another piste of thought:
It’s not uncommon for watch-brands to bid up their own products simply to increase the cache of their products as a marketing exercise !
 
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You can buy an Omega Geneva for $250 or less, I think the real message is not everyone needs a 2915-1
 
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When people make analyses of the market it often reflects their own current state of mind.
In other words, the hobby is alive and kicking, though for you it might not be (anymore).
 
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You can buy an Omega Geneva for $250 or less, I think the real message is not everyone needs a 2915-1

You say that… but in the U.K. the ask for a nice basic Geneve is regularly north of £500 on eBay, with private sellers.

As others have pointed out, everyone seems to think that every old watch is now worth 2-3 times what it was 12 months ago.

There are still sensible options out there, but as a whole, the market for used watches here in the U.K. has gone stupid.
 
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You can buy an Omega Geneva for $250 or less, I think the real message is not everyone needs a 2915-1

+1, to the point that there are many things out there not costing $3.5M

Also worth mentioning: these “problems” with the watch world may be keeping alive the modern Swiss mechanical brands.
 
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The frequent news stories of folks being robbed of their prized watches don’t help the hobby either.
 
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where does the nascent watch hobbyist, with limited funds, turn to scratch the itch?
There's more then enough vintage watches out there that are interesting and dont cost a lot. I've sold this recently here on OF.
 
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Not everyone is a Tool watch fanboy. Vintage Subs and Speedmasters are a small portion of a big pool of collectors.



The hobby is alive and kicking for the brands that have always been just as good.


 
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Not everyone is a Tool watch fanboy. Vintage Subs and Speedmasters are a small portion of a big pool of collectors.



The hobby is alive and kicking for the brands that have always been just as good.



Only today I have bought a top example of a reasonably sought after vintage diver in an open auction at a price I would have found reasonable five years ago. Not all prices are going stratospheric, luckily.
 
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Only today I have bought a top example of a reasonably sought after vintage diver in an open auction at a price I would have found reasonable five years ago. Not all prices are going stratospheric, luckily.

Oh, and earlier this week I bought another vintage dive watch in open auction at a price I would have considered a bargain five years ago...
 
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I believe the wristwatch hobby might be dead for "average Joe"
Nonsense!
Although I first started my collection with mid-century Omegas, now my tastes are more varied. There are tons of interesting watches at modest prices.

1930's art-deco (Hamilton Barrel and Clark)


1970's modern (Lip Frigo)


1970's funk (Seiko Vanac)
 
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Oh, and earlier this week I bought another vintage dive watch in open auction at a price I would have considered a bargain five years ago...

Pics or it didn't happen 😎
 
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I think it depends where you look for watches.

Luckily for me, my part of Europe is still uneducated regarding vintage watches, that's why I scored elusive 2887 for price of average low tier Seamaster. I'm just 5yrs into this hobby and it looks good so far 😀
 
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Interesting observations above. From my perspective and experience, it all depends of what you collect. I for one went through many phases in the mostly vintage watch theme. Chronos with column wheel movements and various complications, military chronos and Rolex sports watches. In these three specific categories, I share the same feelings with @SpeedyPhill. When I look back, I'm amazed I was able to thoroughly enjoy the hobby while it was somewhat accessible, no longer.

The problem is that greedy newcomers and greedy dealers have made the hobby some kind of stock market for speculators that has infected even the new watch segment. So yes, no longer a hobby unless money is no object and I also have been effectively kicked out of said hobby. The only interest they have is motivated by value. Past, present and future.

Granted there are some vintage gems out there to be had as @STANDY points out, but it means diverting your interest and attention to other themes or brands. I found some solace in gathering interesting reissued watches echoing their glorious vintage counterparts. This gave me some level of satisfaction along with the peace of mind of owning something newer and more serviceable while being shielded by the insane "watch market". I intend to continue in that vein. Hopefully this segment will carry on being accessible.
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Too much focus on certain watches as an “ investment” … if you love the micro’s and are willing to let go and explore other brands, there is plenty to delve into.
 
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Oh, and earlier this week I bought another vintage dive watch in open auction at a price I would have considered a bargain five years ago...
We want to see pics!!! ::rimshot::