What's up with these vintage prices?

chipsotoole · Jan 11, 2018

sdre
Will prices reset? Again if we can apply basic economics here, if there's a limited supply and more demand, prices will only continue to climb isn't it?

Talking about guitars, I have a 1980s fender MIA strat that I kept. Haven't played for a long time. What happened to the vintage market for guitars? It crashed and resetted?

A 1980s MIA strat is a good well built guitar and technically vintage.Certainly it has some accrued value. But enthusiasts operate on other criteria where Strats nd Tele are concerned...The 50's handmade in small numbers and Fullarton factory made up to the pre CBS buyout of the Fender company in the early 60's (64/65 I think). Then post CBS sixties, then the 3 bolt tilt'o'neck design of the early 70's (along with scarce model thinlines f holes etc)....After about 75 the prices flatten out till 77 and the 25th anniversary strat, then things go flat especially as mass production went rampant and production global for Fender instruments...fender Japan, Squier Japan..... Actually 73-82 are the Golden years of Japanese guitar making (mostly better made copies of US company designs by the likes of Ibanez ) and they often command very high prices.
Prices have bounced back somewhat a vintage guitar article in 2011 quotes a 59-62 strat (so called pre CBS) in the range of 40-75,000 USD depending of course on condition, colour, originality, rarity. Reverb.com recently posted a line graph for strats by year and value based on their sales and other market sales.. 59-62 strats are averaging out at 12-15000 USD.

sdre · Jan 11, 2018

chipsotoole
A 1980s MIA strat is a good well built guitar and technically vintage.Certainly it has some accrued value. But enthusiasts operate on other criteria where Strats nd Tele are concerned...The 50's handmade in small numbers and Fullarton factory made up to the pre CBS buyout of the Fender company in the early 60's (62/3 I think). Then post CBS sixties, then the 3 bolt tilt'o'neck design of the early 70's (along with scarce model thinlines f holes etc)....After about 75 the prices flatten out till 77 and the 25th anniversary strat, then things go flat especially as mass production went rampant and production global for Fender instruments...fender Japan, Squier Japan..... Actually 73-82 are the Golden years of Japanese guitar making (mostly better made copies of US company designs by the likes of Ibanez ) and they often command very high prices.

Thanks for that. It was close to my birth year, so I thought why not. I've started looking at vintage guitars on Ebay (oh dear, like vintage rolex wasn't enough) =O

Prices have indeed look rather decent. A Gibson Les Paul was going for under 500 USD... sure its a Deluxe but still... that's pretty cheap.https://www.ebay.com/itm/2009-Gibso...e=STRK:MEBIDX:IT&_trksid=p2055359.m1431.l2649

micampe · Jan 11, 2018

Vintage watches are also propelled by fashion: vintage is popular on everything right now. I expect prices to readjust when fashion changes - when or by how much, I don’t know.

Davidt · Jan 11, 2018

micampe
Vintage watches are also propelled by fashion: vintage is popular on everything right now. I expect prices to readjust when fashion changes - when or by how much, I don’t know.

This x1000.

Up-cycling, shabby chic, hipsters, reclaimed everything, cottage kitchens, vintage is hot with almost every demographic, especially 20 and 30 something's like me.

When the phase passes there'll be a significant reduction in demand.

Sure some will stick around but many will move into the next fad.

stesil66 · Jan 11, 2018

I started collecting vintages beginning of this year an I noticed increases in the range of 30/50% only in the last year. I noticed Dynamics going from the 400-600€ range to the 600-1000€ even of late this year. I grabbed a very good Geneve for 270€, now practically impossible less than 400€.

Some fault I attribute to Catawiki, they have almost every week or less an Omega auction with 20-30 vintage watches that have quite high, in my opinion, evaluations and, as a consequence, unreasonable reserve prices, contributing to overall increase.

Same trend I notice, with even higher increases, on vintage chronographs. Even more obscure brands have doubled the price.
Tissots it seems are increasing as well but at lower pace.

Rman · Jan 11, 2018

Davidt
This x1000.

Up-cycling, shabby chic, hipsters, reclaimed everything, cottage kitchens, vintage is hot with almost every demographic, especially 20 and 30 something's like me.

When the phase passes there'll be a significant reduction in demand.

Sure some will stick around but many will move into the next fad.

Perhaps, but is collecting antique furniture a fad?
There will always always be a contingency of people who want OLD things vs new. Especially items from a time that was generally considered a higher quality or “golden age” in the design and production of said item.
It’s been said many times but the size of a watch and the wearability make it desirable, utterly usable portable wealth in an increasingly crypto cash world.

oddboy · Jan 11, 2018

I don't think hipsters - at least not the ones I know - are buying vintage watches. More like retro digital casio.

Wonder how much of the "reusable" trend will stick though

sdre · Jan 11, 2018

oddboy
I don't think hipsters - at least not the ones I know - are buying vintage watches. More like retro digital casio.

Wonder how much of the "reusable" trend will stick though

Agreed. My little cousins (23 and 24 years of age) actually wear Apple watches.... and some tech upstart people I know, feels like wearing apple watches, or fitbits are the "in" thing. Wear-able tech.

So technically, analog watches are not that trendy.....

There's alot of "stigma" or "old sayings" for vintage watches though,

- like having your first child, oh I should buy a nice watch to celebrate

- Birth year watch (e.g rolex/Speedy), noticed that the 70s and 80s watches are pretty expensive now

- celebrate that big promotion, or landmark in your career, buy a nice watch...

It's almost a stereotype to have these things in your life to celebrate the good stuff that's been happening... And it does't seem to go away?

watch3s · Jan 11, 2018

this is bad news for me as ive been after several vintage watches for some time. It might been vintage year for me but with the way prices are trending, might have to keep it to maybe one or two good pieces

nonuffinkbloke · Jan 12, 2018

sdre
Will prices reset? Again if we can apply basic economics here, if there's a limited supply and more demand, prices will only continue to climb isn't it?

Talking about guitars, I have a 1980s fender MIA strat that I kept. Haven't played for a long time. What happened to the vintage market for guitars? It crashed and resetted?

When you say "reset"??? Do you mean "reset" low? That don't sound like good news to me @sdre ? Don't want these babies crashing too far.😲

Davidt · Jan 12, 2018

In the U.K. Hipsters are definitely wearing vintage Omega and Rolex, although I agree probably more wear digital Casio etc.

Regarding antique furniture, the arse fell out of that several years ago. Certain parts have come back, but others are still pennies on the pound from where they were in the 80's.

I don't particularly think the arse will fall out of the vintage watch market, but I do think on the whole it's having a peak right now which will settle down in a few years.

nonuffinkbloke · Jan 12, 2018

Sorry chaps😕.... I'm enjoying this thread but can somebody please tell me what the 'fakkin hell' a "Hipster" is?😟
Am I to understand it is some sort of 'upwardly, mobile, trendy, left-wing, sushi munching bastedd'?😕

padders · Jan 12, 2018

It does feel a bit toppy in places i agree and some fingers will likely get burned at some point. There is a close parallel in the world of second hand cars. Chris Harris has a column in this months Top Gear talking about how mad it has got that any 1980s shed is now seen as an investment opportunity. He quotes the high watermark as a late 1970s RS2000 Ford Escort, ie a warmed over run of the mill model without any race pedegree fetching £100k. If that is true it is insane and surely not sustainable. He also thinks the massive premiums being achieved for new limited release cars like the Porsche RS models aren’t going to stick since there will always be another 911. Sounds a little like the LE Speedmaster market.

chipsotoole · Jan 12, 2018

I've certainly become wary more cautious. What was a cheap no brainer purchase for an tired but ok watch, or an interesting movement has become a "Do I really want this?" Do I really like this? Once you figure in the price of a revision, what was a 300 Euro project suddenly becomes a 500 + project. It's always hard to know if you'll bond with a watch. As far as the my more expensive watches go, If I don't wear them as part of my rotation at least once every few weeks, they really have to move on.
However the market goes in the future I know I won't ever be stepping up into the haute orology levels..Firstly as I think the prices as just bonkers and secondly how hard it is to shift a 5000=10,000 Euro JLC or Pate?. They're like luxury yachts.. lovely to look at but honestly a bit of a white elephant. Unless you have a very cavalier attitude to money , or are rich, it'd be like wearing a raw egg on your wrist...every scratch , every blemish diminishes it.
I think we'll see prices continue to ripple upwards through the mechanical watch market for some time to come, but then they will have a significant crash. Perhaps not as drastically as the vintage guitar market, but they will find their own economic base level...and these afore mentioned Pateks , Rolexes, Breguets , Panerais and Hublots (Dress rather than tool watches) will languish in negative equity in peoples safes and bank vaults waiting for some distant point in the future when they're passed on or finally sold to break even.

chipsotoole · Jan 12, 2018

nonuffinkbloke
Sorry chaps😕.... I'm enjoying this thread but can somebody please tell me what the 'fakkin hell' a "Hipster" is?😟
Am I to understand it is some sort of 'upwardly, mobile, trendy, left-wing, sushi munching bastedd'?😕

with a beard and those stupid skinny jeans that are 4 inches too sort (they don't wear socks) and have back pockets glued to the underside of their buttocks..

nonuffinkbloke · Jan 12, 2018

padders
It does feel a bit toppy in places i agree and some fingers will likely get burned at some point. There is a close parallel in the world of second hand cars. Chris Harris has a column in this months Top Gear talking about how mad it has got that any 1980s shed is now seen as an investment opportunity. He quotes the high watermark as a late 1970s RS2000 Ford Escort, ie a warmed over run of the mill model without any race pedegree fetching £100k. If that is true it is insane and surely not sustainable. He also thinks the massive premiums being achieved for new limited release cars like the Porsche RS models aren’t going to stick since there will always be another 911. Sounds a little like the LE Speedmaster market.

Should I have hung on to these "sheds" @padders ?

I wish I still had them now.🙁

nonuffinkbloke · Jan 12, 2018

chipsotoole
with a beard and those stupid skinny jeans that are 4 inches too sort (they don't wear socks) and have back pockets glued to the underside of their buttocks..

Yes!... That's the 'bassteddz' @chipsotoole.😡 You've spotted em as well! 'Fakkin' young Hipsters!... wandering around being trendy and buying up all the crap I can't afford!😡

nonuffinkbloke · Jan 12, 2018

chipsotoole
A 1980s MIA strat is a good well built guitar and technically vintage.Certainly it has some accrued value. But enthusiasts operate on other criteria where Strats nd Tele are concerned...The 50's handmade in small numbers and Fullarton factory made up to the pre CBS buyout of the Fender company in the early 60's (64/65 I think). Then post CBS sixties, then the 3 bolt tilt'o'neck design of the early 70's (along with scarce model thinlines f holes etc)....After about 75 the prices flatten out till 77 and the 25th anniversary strat, then things go flat especially as mass production went rampant and production global for Fender instruments...fender Japan, Squier Japan..... Actually 73-82 are the Golden years of Japanese guitar making (mostly better made copies of US company designs by the likes of Ibanez ) and they often command very high prices.
Prices have bounced back somewhat a vintage guitar article in 2011 quotes a 59-62 strat (so called pre CBS) in the range of 40-75,000 USD depending of course on condition, colour, originality, rarity. Reverb.com recently posted a line graph for strats by year and value based on their sales and other market sales.. 59-62 strats are averaging out at 12-15000 USD.

Some of the best Strats and Teles I've played have come from Fender Japan. 'I've played over priced, large headstock, 1970's Strats that are heavier than a Les Paul Custom. Who's buying them and why? Horrible things. Couldn't hang them back on the shop wall quick enough!😕

I think as the cheaper Mexican and Chinese stuff becomes the
norm the value of the qualityJapanese guitars is rising. Don't get me started on Tokai copies. Superb and in some ways superior to Fender but will they go up in value at the same rate?

For some reason the 'dudes' still want to see Fender, Gibson, PRS or Rickenbaker on the headstock. To be honest so do I even though the best electric guitar I've ever owned is made by a bloke called Gerrard Melancon in Louisiana. It does it all and is a far better instrument than my Gibson and Fender guitars. £2500 new but I doubt it would make £1000 now.look at the quality of it in this photo. Fact is, it has the wrong name on the headstock.

padders · Jan 12, 2018

nonuffinkbloke
Should I have hung on to these "sheds" @padders ?

I wish I still had them now.🙁

E30s are very hot at present. I have a pal who loves them and has bought and sold about 7 in the past couple of years, while the price is rising, he always makes money. He is building a hot 318iS coupe (twin cam) with about 200hp to use as a run about. Should be a lovely thing.

There is one positive effect of a bubble like this. As mentioned above by Mr Chips we have all bought pieces with a a sting in the tail which needed work we hadn't expected or which we just got carried away when bidding on and consequently paid too much. A rising market does rather refloat some of these high and dry pieces meaning they don't sit there reminding you of your mistakes and can then if necessary be resold without too much pain.

Peemacgee · Jan 12, 2018

nonuffinkbloke
Yes!... That's the 'bassteddz' @chipsotoole.😡 You've spotted em as well! 'Fakkin' young Hipsters!... wandering around being trendy and buying up all the crap I can't afford!😡

They’re probably driving your VW as well...😉

What's up with these vintage prices?

chipsotoole

sdre

micampe

Davidt

stesil66

Rman

oddboy

sdre

watch3s

nonuffinkbloke

Davidt

nonuffinkbloke

padders

chipsotoole

chipsotoole

nonuffinkbloke

nonuffinkbloke

nonuffinkbloke

padders

Peemacgee

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