I'm not a statistician by far (I actually failed that module back in school :O)
But can we do a little math to help our understanding abit better?
1) 2010 was the release, Assuming
https://www.quora.com/How-many-Rolex-watches-are-produced-per-year is correct, we can just take a rough number of 1,000,000 Rolex watches are made a year. Can we assume 30% are Submariners? Considering there are datejusts, explorers etc etc. Subrmariners would be the Date, No Date, Hulk etc
2) With that, we have an average and estimated 300,000 Submariners produced from 2010 to 2018 (current production might be halted due to new release and discon but for calculation sake, we will just take 2010 + 2018 as 1 year, considering we are not sure whats the actual production numbers for 2010 and 2018 specificall)
3) 300,000 Submariners X 7 years (2010 + 2018 considered as 1 year), we will have 2,100,000 Submariners in the World today.
4) Can we assume 60-70% of that number is owned by actual watch collectors/wearers/businessmen/21year old bankers who just got their first pay check/ so with that, we have about remaining 735,000 to 740,000 Submariners being sold and bought by WUS/Govberg/Grey dealers/ADs keeping them in the safe....
5) I'm not sure whats the actual number of ADs/Grey dealers in the world, but if we were to throw out a number say, 50,000 shops all over the world, who might have some of these submariners, that would mean each shop would have at least 14-15 Submariners in their shops for sale / Safe. (However this is not quite possible as there is literally no stock)
I guess a better number/some factual numbers might help for point 4 and 5... but what do you guys think?