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gatorcpa
··ΩF InvestiGator…they just bought the $750k monstrous McMansion of his dreams.
That amount might buy a small condo on the beach here, or a decent house a few miles inland.
But not a McMansion.
gatorcpa
Rolex bubble yes/no?
That amount might buy a small condo on the beach here, or a decent house a few miles inland.
But not a McMansion.
gatorcpa
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JwRosenthal
·If they were living where I live, they’d still be dreaming.
That amount might buy a small condo on the beach here, or a decent house a few miles inland.
But not a McMansion.
gatorcpa
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Donn Chambers
·I will give an example of why this “bubble” is far from over, and why it simply isn’t just as simple as supply and demand.
my wife and I visited a small jeweler yesterday that was a Rolex AD until about 10 years ago. They still had some old stock - all ladies datejusts and oysters, none larger than 28mm. Most were 23 or 25mm.
still, my wife was interested in a couple, so we talked prices. They were listed at current full retail prices, so I tried to get some discount (about 30%) pointing out they had been sitting on these for at least a decade and were obviously not selling at the price they were asking.
you should have seen the look on the saleswoman face. “These are Rolex. One does not discount a Rolex.”
she didn’t even bother countering my offer. Looks like they’ll hold on to that watch for another 10 years with this attitude.
so here is an example of high supply - they had a dozen models - and low demand, yet they still refused to adjust prices.
my wife and I visited a small jeweler yesterday that was a Rolex AD until about 10 years ago. They still had some old stock - all ladies datejusts and oysters, none larger than 28mm. Most were 23 or 25mm.
still, my wife was interested in a couple, so we talked prices. They were listed at current full retail prices, so I tried to get some discount (about 30%) pointing out they had been sitting on these for at least a decade and were obviously not selling at the price they were asking.
you should have seen the look on the saleswoman face. “These are Rolex. One does not discount a Rolex.”
she didn’t even bother countering my offer. Looks like they’ll hold on to that watch for another 10 years with this attitude.
so here is an example of high supply - they had a dozen models - and low demand, yet they still refused to adjust prices.
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IDXM
·I will give an example of why this “bubble” is far from over, and why it simply isn’t just as simple as supply and demand.
my wife and I visited a small jeweler yesterday that was a Rolex AD until about 10 years ago. They still had some old stock - all ladies datejusts and oysters, none larger than 28mm. Most were 23 or 25mm.
still, my wife was interested in a couple, so we talked prices. They were listed at current full retail prices, so I tried to get some discount (about 30%) pointing out they had been sitting on these for at least a decade and were obviously not selling at the price they were asking.
you should have seen the look on the saleswoman face. “These are Rolex. One does not discount a Rolex.”
she didn’t even bother countering my offer. Looks like they’ll hold on to that watch for another 10 years with this attitude.
so here is an example of high supply - they had a dozen models - and low demand, yet they still refused to adjust prices.
The economic concept of opportunity cost seems beyond them. Good luck to that business model.
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Donn Chambers
·The economic concept of opportunity cost seems beyond them. Good luck to that business model.
yeah, although to be fair, the majority of their business was in diamonds and gold jewelry - the watch section was just part of one case so they are probably happy to wait for that one person to come in to buy at full price because it’s a Rolex.
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blubarb
··IG: #blubarb19just to jump back a little. I see what's happening as most likely a bubble from my layman's pov, but I don't know enough about Veblen economics to be definitive and there are those more experienced and economically knowledgeable to educate me and others in these matters. However, I would suggest that this supply/demand issue is both a problem and a catch-22 for all who want to be holders of newer (and neo-vintage) model SS Rolex. I suspect that Rolex and the ADs will be hoisted on their own petards eventually, if that's not occurring already. The catch 22 for Rolex and its ADs, as i see it, would be if Rolex were to increase production so as to allow easier purchasing access closer to demand then this will most likely pull the secondary-used market down which then lowers the value of Rolex if not the price immediately. Rolex has to make a decision: maintain its current approach hell or high water or increase supply to us hoi poloi that would ultimately drop prices to meet a shifting downward value; though I doubt it would happen overnight (as exampled by a crash) as no-one wants to be the first to take a big hit on their off the book assets. I guess it will be the salami approach, slice by slice. If it is a bubble ten it's a very flat one, like the dome glass on my 5513 and I don't see it bursting anytime soon, if ever. Anyway, just my two cents worth for a rainy Saturday morning being stuck inside in front of the screen. Now for a photo of my favourite Rolex, the 14270 U series, which has really nothing to do with anything, other than it's as cool a Rolex as I have, aside of the Air King 39mm "bloodhound". 😁
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DoctorEvil
·just to jump back a little. I see what's happening as most likely a bubble from my layman's pov, but I don't know enough about Veblen economics to be definitive and there are those more experienced and economically knowledgeable to educate me and others in these matters. However, I would suggest that this supply/demand issue is both a problem and a catch-22 for all who want to be holders of newer (and neo-vintage) model SS Rolex. I suspect that Rolex and the ADs will be hoisted on their own petards eventually, if that's not occurring already. The catch 22 for Rolex and its ADs, as i see it, would be if Rolex were to increase production so as to allow easier purchasing access closer to demand then this will most likely pull the secondary-used market down which then lowers the value of Rolex if not the price immediately. Rolex has to make a decision: maintain its current approach hell or high water or increase supply to us hoi poloi that would ultimately drop prices to meet a shifting downward value; though I doubt it would happen overnight (as exampled by a crash) as no-one wants to be the first to take a big hit on their off the book assets. I guess it will be the salami approach, slice by slice. If it is a bubble ten it's a very flat one, like the dome glass on my 5513 and I don't see it bursting anytime soon, if ever. Anyway, just my two cents worth for a rainy Saturday morning being stuck inside in front of the screen. Now for a photo of my favourite Rolex, the 14270 U series, which has really nothing to do with anything, other than it's as cool a Rolex as I have, aside of the Air King 39mm "bloodhound". 😁
I doubt that Rolex will be increasing supply any time soon so the only way that prices can come down on the secondary market is if demand starts to tail off. Eventually, we'll reach a point where the market says "enough is enough" and prices start to plateau. I wouldn't be surprised if we're getting close.
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gbesq
·I have never understood the hype over Rolex and why so many view them as “investments.” Rolex watches are mass produced mid-tier luxury watches. Nothing more, nothing less. Rolex is not haute horlogerie. Never has been. You can make a good argument that Omega’s newest coaxial movements are better than anything Rolex offers and at 2/3 of what Rolex charges. Rolex creates artificial scarcity for its products by limiting production. That, combined with ingenious marketing, creates demand. People want what they can’t readily get. Hence waiting lists and high prices. Buy into the hype if you wish, but if you want a great watch with bragging rights at a fair price, get a JLC.
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Stripey
·I have never understood the hype over Rolex and why so many view them as “investments.” Rolex watches are mass produced mid-tier luxury watches. Nothing more, nothing less. Rolex is not haute horlogerie. Never has been. You can make a good argument that Omega’s newest coaxial movements are better than anything Rolex offers and at 2/3 of what Rolex charges. Rolex creates artificial scarcity for its products by limiting production. That, combined with ingenious marketing, creates demand. People want what they can’t readily get. Hence waiting lists and high prices. Buy into the hype if you wish, but if you want a great watch with bragging rights at a fair price, get a JLC.
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Lurk41
·why so many view them as “investments.”
And the beauty of it? it is a self-fulfilling prophecy, as always with such kinds of highly speculative investments. It is the same as stock-market bubbles. Spread the word the value will grow and it is a good investment, people will invest and value will grow. Say there is a bubble and it will burst in the very near future, people will start selling instead of buying, and the bubble will burst.
I do not know if we reach the point where watches are not even physically traded anymore. When it will happen, expect highly volatile prices...
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jaguar11
·In my experience, the prices asked are not what's being paid. I would say you need to look at £500-£1000 less. But as with the majority of high end products at the moment, the market has stalled. I see nothing to say that the trend in watch investment will reverse so no immediate panic. I would say "keep on buying" but that's a laugh.....
I have never understood the hype over Rolex and why so many view them as “investments.” Rolex watches are mass produced mid-tier luxury watches. Nothing more, nothing less. Rolex is not haute horlogerie. Never has been. You can make a good argument that Omega’s newest coaxial movements are better than anything Rolex offers and at 2/3 of what Rolex charges. Rolex creates artificial scarcity for its products by limiting production. That, combined with ingenious marketing, creates demand. People want what they can’t readily get. Hence waiting lists and high prices. Buy into the hype if you wish, but if you want a great watch with bragging rights at a fair price, get a JLC.
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DoctorEvil
·I have never understood the hype over Rolex and why so many view them as “investments.” Rolex watches are mass produced mid-tier luxury watches. Nothing more, nothing less. Rolex is not haute horlogerie. Never has been. You can make a good argument that Omega’s newest coaxial movements are better than anything Rolex offers and at 2/3 of what Rolex charges. Rolex creates artificial scarcity for its products by limiting production. That, combined with ingenious marketing, creates demand. People want what they can’t readily get. Hence waiting lists and high prices. Buy into the hype if you wish, but if you want a great watch with bragging rights at a fair price, get a JLC.
Agree that Omega has shown more guts and innovation in the last 20 years or so with it's introduction of co-ax escapements, silicon hairsprings etc. Sad that the brand has not been rewarded in the same way as Rolex and I put that down to marketing. Speaking of which, how does a company as conservative as Rolex market itself so well through YouTubers, Instagram influencers etc? These platforms have basically allowed Rolex to tap into a whole new market: Wealthy millenials who may not have known much about watches, but who now want a Rolex because it's "the best".
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Scooterino36
·Not an investment- a luxury. Just call it what it is.
Indeed. Credit cash, debit expense. I for one, do not enjoy keeping my investments on my physical person, be it my wallet or my watch. Would certainly diminish the wearing experience and the joy of the hobby.
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hoshimachi
·I come from the future
It was indeed, a massive bubble
It was indeed, a massive bubble
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