Rolex bubble yes/no?

JwRosenthal

I was accepted to 3 of them, guess which one I went with.

Syzygy

@DoctorEvil, this guy you met at a party who's wife gave him permission to buy a Rolex...look him straight in the eyes...serious like...and say "good luck with that".

Then...walk away and don't say a word.

JwRosenthal

I saw my brother in-law this weekend, fancies himself a high roller investor (even though his wife is actually the bread-winner and works her ass off for it), they just bought the $750k monstrous McMansion of his dreams. He spent the weekend talking about his portfolio and how he’s going to retire by 40 (he’s 33 now)- and if I were smart I would do the same as him. I smiled and said “I look forward to celebrating that day with you.”
I don’t try to convince people who live with a fixations on money or investment anymore- it’s about as productive as trying to rationalize with my dog that there will indeed be more food later in the day.

DoctorEvil

Hi all. Late to this thread but thought it might be worth reviving since quite a lot has happened in the world since the last post before me.

I met a guy at a party on the weekend who was also into watches and he had on a white dial Daytona. His wife let him get it for their 10th wedding anniversary. He told me that he paid over AUD$30k for it on the secondary market because he didn't want to wait forever (otherwise he might not have gotten it until his 20th anniversary 😉). He knew that he had paid way over retail but said to me he could justify it because it was a good investment and that it would hold it's value. That would only be true if the price of SS Rolex watches kept going up on the secondary market and not fall below retail, right? But how can he be so sure of that?

The way I see it right now, we are still in the middle of a Rolex bubble. A lot of people are buying SS Rolex watches because they think that their value will keep going up in the secondary market and that they can always sell it later for a profit. It's no different to other types of bubbles in the past such as real estate bubbles and share market bubbles. The problem with such bubbles is that there is often a market "correction" where demand tapers off or there is oversupply and prices start falling. If this happens with SS Rolexes, then people such as my friend with the Daytona could be in trouble when they are left "holding the baby".

Is this a real possibility? What do you all think?

It's for this reason that I would never pay the current exorbitant grey market prices on SS Rolex even though I would love to add a GMT2 to my collection.

Martin_J_N

Is this the same party you were at where there was a guy wearing a Sub date that cost AUD$30k? You get invited to some great parties.

Dash1

I know it’s been said before but I think it bears repeating, price is a direct result of supply and demand. Is Rolex supply going to be ramped up in the near future? Is demand for Rolex going to drop off a cliff? I don’t know for sure but I doubt it any time soon.

asrnj77

The supply and demand model is accurate. The problem is that the slightest drop in demand combined with an ongoing supply equals a drop in price. The drop in price will cause panic that will ripple across the market. The “investment” will suddenly look unstable and people may decide to sell which will flood the market and further drive prices down. When I hear people say that Rolex prices will always continue pointing up, I ask if the white dial Daytona will hit $120,000 in 10 years when production continues at full speed

JwRosenthal

I think people use the idea of investment as a way of rationalizing an irrational purchase. Be it an expensive watch, expensive house- they all are lavish expenses that can warrant a certain about of privileged guilt- so saying it is an investment is far easier than realizing you are a entitled and lucky prick who desires objects that far exceed rational need. I’m not throwing shade here, I’m just self aware enough to know that I don’t “need” another Rolex, nor to I “deserve” another Rolex, but I worked for the money to buy one- so fυck it. Why not. My bills are paid, I am not hurting or depriving anyone, I am far more magnanimous with those around me than I am with myself- I like being selfish and entitled every now and then. Not an investment- a luxury. Just call it what it is.