Where has the vintage market gone?

[Fish70]

80% lean hamburger is $6 a pound where I live.

Well then I read this today.

https://link.apnews.com/click/33073...pbmdfV2lyZQ/61892239d6f9b349da37d20bB2e4c33d7

U.S. NEWS

A surge in wealth has boosted most US households since 2020

The net worth of the typical U.S. household grew at the fastest pace in more than three decades from 2020 through 2022, while relatively low interest rates at that time made it easier for households to pay their debts, according to a government report Wednesday. Read more.

Why this matters:

• The jump in wealth - 37% for median households - occurred even as the brief but brutal pandemic cost 20 million Americans their jobs in 2020. While about $5 trillion worth of government relief aid helped spur a rapid recovery that regained lost jobs, the additional spending is believed to have helped fuel the worst bout of inflation in four decades.
  
  
  
• The broad-based wealth increase helps explain the surprising durability of the U.S. economy this year and the consumer spending that powers about two-thirds of it. For at least a year, economists have been warning of a forthcoming recession, yet the economy has kept chugging along.
  

Edited: Oct 19, 2023

 

[DON]

Fish70

80% lean hamburger is $6 a pound where I live.

Local had on sale for $3.99 Canadian a pound, so bought 4 packages. Had to wait 1.5 months for a sale. Also. Same store 2 weeks earlier put strip loin steaks on sale and butcher cut to my specs. 1 1/4" thick at $7.00 a steak

Still have to find bone in chicken breasts for another meal I make in batches and freeze

 

[theluckyluke]

It’s clearly a question of arbitrage between expenses - the growing proportion of “basic” costs making it more difficult to justify spending on watches.

On watches more specifically, I think it’s also a question of location. I live in Spain and clearly the EU offering is quite weaker than US and UK on most platforms. I am not ready mentally to get into custom fees, due to bad past experiences. There are many watches that I would love to own from the OF private sales add, or the eBay recommended listings - but often they are not located where I’d like. That’s life!

Too many choices also make it difficult to decide and, as a relatively recent watch enthusiast, I have clearly been feeling this. There are so many references, and things to watch for (no pun intended). Resources like this forum are absolutely amazing, and I have learned a ton. However, the drawback is that I always have this feeling the condition is never good enough, that the case is not sharp enough, or the price is too high.

Which is great because it raises my standards, but it’s also effectively refraining me from buying watches that I could well have enjoyed, but aren’t 100%.

 

[Bernhard J]

DON

I did buy a couple of quartz Chinese watches, but still waiting for them. Only $30 ea.

Do the dials at least say "Bolex" or "Omeya"?

 

[theluckyluke]

Bernhard J

But please keep away where I am bidding/buying currently ...

If you share, it’s the only way we can make sure we don’t bid there!

 

[Bernhard J]

theluckyluke

However, the drawback is that I always have this feeling the condition is never good enough, that the case is not sharp enough, or the price is too high.

Well, this is often thought in the thread discussions. But not in the sales listings on OF . I often think that the sales listing are overpriced (even without considering customs) and find it interesting how far they plunge down with time. Of course there are exceptions and I once bought a watch from an OF user, who is located in the EU. And I am very happy with it.

Yes, customs needs to be considered, it adds in Germany more than 25% on a selling price.

Aside this, it does not make sense to spend money, that is not "superfluous", i.e. not needed for anything else, even as a reserve (if e.g. the car brakes down, or the dish washer explodes). The Chinese quartz watch shows time more precisely than most of the watches discussed here. Aside that the exact time is dispayed by the ubiquitous smartphones anyway. So that actually nobody really needs a watch. But I think that there will always be a collectors market for watches, especially for vintage watches.

And I expect that the prices will rise (again) for vintage watches in this decade. So if someone has "superfluous" money at the bank, it is imo better spent in a lovely vintage watch or clock, than just letting it laying at the bank. At least I really enjoy looking at my "treasures" again and again. And do not get bored.

 

[Bernhard J]

theluckyluke

If you share, it’s the only way we can make sure we don’t bid there!

OK, I will share (but not disclosing that I actually am NOT bidding). And enjoy watching the rsulting mass fight

 

[Dan S]

gbesq

I’m seeing some great vintage offerings sitting unsold that would have sold in a flash a year ago. A great time to buy if you have the cash and a terrible time to sell.

In principle it's a good time to buy, except that many sellers still have unrealistic expectations, which is why watches are sitting unsold. It is a good time to buy in auctions, though.

 

[Bernhard J]

In the field of pocket watches and clocks it seems that auction houses are raising the estimates and starting bids significantly (I just looked through the new Dr. Crott auction catalogue). Perhaps they start "testing" the market. This is also the reason that I predict a "turnaround" in case of vintage wrist watches as well.

 

[Tony C.]

Bernhard J

it seems that auction houses are raising the estimates and starting bids significantly

Auction houses all have, and at times try different approaches to estimates, and starting prices. Some choose high estimates, others low. Etc.

I'm familiar with Stefan Muser (Dr. Crott), and have plenty of respect for him, but any auction house that is currently raising estimates and starting bids in this economic environment is taking a risk. In any case, I do not believe that it might in any way signal a "turnaround" in the broader vintage watch market.

In my experience, even the very wealthy are psychologically affected by serious economic uncertainties, and while the high-end market (e.g. Dr. Crott, again) is more resistant to the effects of downturns, it is far from being immune.

 

[eternalover]

it looks to me that there are some great prices on gold vintage at the lower end, as Bernhard indicates, but still ridiculous for anything attractive especially in good condition. There is a lot more dross to wade through. Longines Conquest Power Reserve or JLC p481 power reserve in nice condition are still mostly way over what I want to spend. Lots of choice on seamasters geneves and de villes as dsio kindly digs out on the forum.

 

[keepsonticking]

I see no problems with vintage prices for nice pieces. Camaros are also way up. I just sold one of those, too.

 

[kaplan]

I think there are 2 problems, watches aren't graded and they are hard to trade, graded Pokemon cards are trading like crazy and due to this trading economy there is a healthy market there - this keeps people with money but not much time out of the market

Second is economical like everyone mentioned, these are middle class watches and middle class is fragile and dying is my opinion

Watch grading would be a game changer

 

[Dan S]

keepsonticking

It will be going up before hitting any bottom.

I think it's pretty clear that the market is in a downward trend, generally speaking. Just look at any indicator of vintage watch prices you choose over the past couple of year. So if you are predicting that the market will turn around and go up, then that will define the bottom, by definition.

If you are claiming that we have been in a market of generally increasing vintage watch prices, I think you are going to be in a very small minority of people with that opinion. There will always be one-off auction listings that sell for high prices, and maybe even the occasional style or model that becomes popular, but overall, there is no doubt that we have seen a significant drop.

 

[PerJ]

keepsonticking

I see no problems with vintage prices for nice pieces. Camaros are also way up. I just sold one of those, too.

Feel free to sell my 2915 for what it should be worth. Big comission coming your way then.

 

[S.H.]

Dan S

I think it's pretty clear that the market is in a downward trend, generally speaking. Just look at any indicator of vintage watch prices you choose over the past couple of year. So if you are predicting that the market will turn around and go up, then that will define the bottom, by definition.

If you are claiming that we have been in a market of generally increasing vintage watch prices, I think you are going to be in a very small minority of people with that opinion. There will always be one-off auction listings that sell for high prices, and maybe even the occasional style or model that becomes popular, but overall, there is no doubt that we have seen a significant drop.

It's definitely not valid for every vintage watch. While I think you are quite right on some costly vintage watches (prices have blown out of proportion for some years) and most second hand recent watches, it is not a downward trend for less pricey items.
It is not easy to buy a nice 1960s omega where I live (it was some years ago) for 500eur, at this price you have junk mostly. Any steel chronograph will be much more than that.
For the <1500eur segment, I think prices are still up.

 

[felsby]

For my cal. 265's, I don't expect to recoup costs. My connies, absolutely. And @MtV pointed out that my recently sold cal. 332 was attractively priced, even though I made money on it.
My personal guess is that attractive or rare watches will keep or increase value, whereas run-of-the-mill watches slowly will lose value.
To me, that is a win-win for all: newbies can afford entry watches, and the ones who get hooked will buy our more attractive watches

 

[Bernhard J]

Well, it depends whether you want to flip or observe the long term. Just as an example, I bought this one (enamel dial version) around 1990 for 300 DM (=150 €). And look what is asked now, around 6,000 €. Even if we assume that a seller would get 3,000 € only, we are talking about a value increase rate of more than 10% per year, each of the 30 years. Not bad, I would think, if you think in investment terms. Even a bit better than the NASDAQ since 1990.

 

[JetLinks]

RevZMan123

I also checked out that DD, but a subdial hand is incorrect and the case/movement years don't match. My wife would have loved it, and probably wouldn't even care about those details as much as me. lol

Whoops, I guess I put the wrong case back on from my other DD chronograph. The new owner will now get the correct N1 back. Thanks for spotting that!

 

[Tony C.]

S.H.

It's definitely not valid for every vintage watch. While I think you are quite right on some costly vintage watches (prices have blown out of proportion for some years) and most second hand recent watches, it is not a downward trend for less pricey items.
It is not easy to buy a nice 1960s omega where I live (it was some years ago) for 500eur, at this price you have junk mostly. Any steel chronograph will be much more than that.
For the <1500eur segment, I think prices are still up.

Setting aside your initial sentence, which is a straw man, I would say that you are misinformed. There has, broadly speaking, been a downward trend in the middle-market for vintage watches for some time now. Of course there are exceptions, often relating to either very attractive examples, or those in especially good condition, but for the vast majority, there has been downward pressure on prices.