AGREE, AGREE !!!

 

That is true (although I tend to agree rather with @pdxleaf with respect to changing fashion). But I also see some steel watches, vintage, doing quite well in auctions.

And I myself continue to look for a reasonably priced Zenith cal. 135, first series. From in the EU, because otherwise the price would become unreasonable due to 25% on top (importation costs). These are in the 5000 € bracket, despite being steel only, and staying there.

 

I am still seeing a strong demand for dive watches. I have been trying to get a croton diver cheap (like fast food cheap.) to no avail.

Chronos are across the board. I personally like chronographs. Mostly though I am looking for parts. Valjoux parts sell for 10 times that of Landeron when available. Cases are hard to come by. Many probably were gold sold into the central and south American market. Most scrap movements seem to come from Central and South America. It is hard to pin world wide trends onto local economy.

I notice I have been limiting my online searches to North America. Which means my general searches are missing the E.U. Some countries tend to flood the listings more than others. Other countries are embargoed, which may affect things as well.

I still think gold is over subscribed. Look at that graph. Mostly though it shows inflation.

 

Each to their own hunting bargains but I don’t really see that as anything related to the market.

 

The question is not whether a given watch is expensive in absolute terms, but the trend in prices relative to a few years ago. Zenith 135 first series examples have always been expensive watches - they are special. I recall seeing some sell in the $6k-$7k range a few years ago. So if you can get a nice example for 5000 euros, that may represent an example of the soft market we are discussing (~20% dip). If you have the funds, this is a good time to buy in auctions IMO, because I personally don't believe the weakness will last forever. If you are waiting for a first series Zenith 135 to come back to where they were 20 years ago, that's just a fantasy.

 

This!

One will never manage to hit exactly the bottom, when buying. But near the bottom is possible. And that is my secondary "motivation". Aside the primary motivation, the joy of looking at my lovely watches during cold and dark winter evenings, over and over again, bought in times when they were affordable.

Even more fascinating is the present depression in the long case clock market. Even for very special ones, like the Gould clock, ca. 1695, I had bought this year in auction. I had bid quite low in advance and expected to be clearly outbid, taken that Gould was a first league clockmaker. Now I have it and am really happy. 15 years ago it would have cost 10-fold the price of today. I do, however, not expect a recovery of this specific market, same with antique furniture, where prices are even more desastrous in the meanwhile ....

 

At least sports watches are very weak. Other things still sell strong.

 

This is the inherent risk of any collectible market. Styles go in an out of favor. Buy what you like and don't view as investment. I view it as a very expensive hobby and nothing more. Trying to pick bottoms or near bottoms are fools errand.

 

Well, watches, clocks, antiques, classic cars definitely are hobby, and thus completely superfluous and quite foolish anyway.

But imo a little bit less foolish, if you do try to buy near the bottom.... .

For persons who seriously see the investment aspect, the greater problem is to try to sell just before a speculation bubble blasts. .

If you keep whatever you have bought, because you have bought wise (= something you really like), then current or future market values are irrelevant, because you anyway are not going to realise hypothetical gains or losses.

 

When everyone except Jay Leno is driving around in Hydrogen or (Electric - yeah right) in 20 years it’s not watches that will be vintage it’s flat 6 direct injection Porsche models that will look like that gold graph earlier in the thread. Love watches, I own and have owned plenty of em but know nothing about vintage. Buy what you like if it’s affordable and your happy to spend your hard earned money, every commodity runs in cycles. There’s a news channel Bloomberg who cover it all.
Here’s too many more years of enjoying our watch hobby.