Top 5 brands which are the most buoyant in the vintage market;

In terms of Popularity/Worth..And through the ups and downs of the market..What do you guys reckon? Any addition/changes to as below?

ROLEX
OMEGA
HEUER
UNIVERSAL GENEVE
PATEK PHILIPPE

Which 5 are the best floaters?

And here is a gratuitous watch shot.. Having a real love affair with this one..

These seem pretty buoyant

I absolutely LOVE Universal, but if we're looking for a "Top 5", it's definitely not in there in terms of least likely to be effected by a market downturn.

I think it goes: 1. Rolex; 2. Patek; 3. AP; 4. Omega; 5. Tudor. Honourable mention: Cartier.

There's a huge drop-off between 2 and 3. 5 makes it on the list because of the Rolex connection.

UG just doesn't have the broader name recognition to non-watch nerds. Not enough finance bros looking for them with their bonus cheques. Nina prices in particular have softened pretty significantly in the last two years.

Yeah I didn’t include AP.. Because the ONLY vintage AP that is “buoyant” in the vintage market is the Royal Oak it seems

Indeed what do you mean with buoyant? That seems quite positive while at the same time you are asking about watch brands which have the highest volatility meaning an investment which can cause you the biggest profit or a loss.

On the long term there are watch categories like pocket watches, bubble watches, 1950/60s chronographs, big sized watches, extreme complications, that have gained and lost popularity by the watch community.
But on the short term and more in recent years we see big spikes of certain brands or models or even second tier brands. Consider the peaks in the Panerai market, or the Heuer market, which peaked hard prior to the Phillips Heuer Parade auction. Or even the Speedmaster mania fueled by the release of LEs and accumulated interest caused by the constant media attention of Fratello as well as the release of Moonwatch Only. In 2019 we saw a very big price correction of the modern Nautilus after an insane rally caused by the grey market who bought every piece possible. The last 2-3 years the biggest return on investment one can get has been on modern steel sport Rolex.
People with a focus on long term investments tend to invest their money in the rarest models of Patek and Rolex and a small part in AP, VC and Cartier as well as the best examples of other brands. But bear in mind when you look at auction results that in the 90s you could buy a Daytona for a couple of thousand dollars while the bubble backs would fetch up to 100k. The only thing that's sure is that Patek is Patek because they have shown the strongest continuous performance since watches have been collectible.
Many people on forums or collectors and old school dealers tell us that watches aren't investments, buy what you like, when the sh#t hits the fan you should love the piece on your wrist, but there is as kind of paradigma shift in the watch collecting community due to low interest rates of the last 5 years and big prices achieved at auctions. The word is on the street even if you sit down to get a haircut that really rare pieces are sold for millions and that kind of awareness wasn't the case a couple of years ago. To say watches aren't an investment is at least to say debatable although the return on investment on a luxury asset investment is very difficult to measure because it is very complicated to really benchmark on the performance of collectible watches as an asset class. Think about the question, what are luxury collectible watches?
The only ones that will be able to give a pretty good assessment on the performance of watches or more refined certain watch brands or watch categories as an investment category are the biggest players in the market such as C24 or auction houses. Although they can never make a clear representation of the whole market since they have different focus in transactions (pre-owned vs top of the market)
Would love it if some other long term experts would chime in.

I can only add something regarding pre owned Watches......Never bought top of the market stuff. If you were lucky or very patient, they became Top of the Market stuff. You had to learn ,you had to handle in Person, you had to buy at Watch Fairs, you had to make Mistakes......Since the appearance of Un-Social Media and a shift in Human Values to instant gratification, marketing tools made desirable Brands in often short lived Promotions or special Books, like the Heuer Book from our Austrian Friend in conjunction with Ed Heuer, created demand. In this case it helped, that the Author had an extensive Heuer Collection, that went to Auction shortly after. Marketing. Cheap credit. Abundance of Money Laundering by Auction Houses in the Art Sector. Bubbles created for Profit only. Buy from internet based media outlets with only pictures provided and the Chance, that nothing is as it seems. That's one of the reasons for many new members here asking, what did I buy? Did I buy well? Did I make a mistake? Italian (and others...) Dealers dreaming up Names for Rolex Models to make them desirable ( Fat Lady springs to Mind..) and bubble up Prices. The Vintage Watch Lover is still here, but an Army of Profit seeking " Fly by Night " Characters has emerged .If you are after a quick Profit , trade in a very narrow Band of Merchandise and you better know exactly, what you do. Many Fakes are getting scary.....It is a fascinating Hobby. Keep it a Hobby or be prepared to get burned by fast shifting Desires. Movado is one Example. Kind regards. Achim

@watchyouwant great comment. I always love it when people like you chime in with a really profound and deep knowledge of the market. I am still a newby here. Learning each day and love what I do. You need to buy and sell watches to really understand a piece by studying the market, handling the watch and describe all the parts and minor details of a piece. Sometimes even after 3 times the same kind of reference you still think you can improve.. In todays market I think it's soo boring that many watch people are looking in the same direction, ignoring a sea of hidden treasures. Considering your comments about sort of market manipulation, please don't forgot that some of these authors actually really add value to the community by sharing their profound knowledge cause they have good intentions. I think of Eric Lexer or van der Venus or mstanga. I really don't know the motives from the authors of Moonwatch Only but that seems to me the same case. Imho that's pure passion. On the other hand we have some magicians who tell fairytales about put together watches with a crown on it. In the last 2 years I have seen a big difference in the people that I meet. Some dealers and collectors are just plain watch geek who can get enthusiastic in the same minute about a seiko or a connie as well as Breguet military watch or a PP perpetual calendar. Others are just business men who prefer to earn a quick buck by shoving steel sport rolex, nautilus and apro as if it is a commodity. The point is watches have become a business since the rise of the internet. The hobby is fuelled by knowledge but also businessmen as well as d#ckheads. Some say I might be both. Others would say that's pure passion;-)

look, i was lucky to find these and many others...... kind regards. achim

Wow! Just wow 🥰🥰🥰

I would put Longines in and Patek out.

agree with most of this but don't exactly understand the movado comment. top of the market now ? or being manipulated upwards ? or were just way too cheap a year ago

@achim, pretty decent lineup. 👍 I am scrolling back now for the tenth time...what's was the watch that has made the biggest impression? It might be a kind of a rhetorical question cause I think it's the one with the nicest story.
btw I love that air command and the IWC, albino rail master, never seen that one! and and and and and 😉