Where has the vintage market gone?

[Tony C.]

Bernhard J

Well, it depends whether you want to flip or observe the long term. Just as an example, I bought this one (enamel dial version) around 1990 for 300 DM (=150 €). And look what is asked now, around 6,000 €. Even if we assume that a seller would get 3,000 € only, we are talking about a value increase rate of more than 10% per year, each of the 30 years. Not bad, I would think, if you think in investment terms. Even a bit better than the NASDAQ since 1990.

Your calculations are not inflation adjusted, which renders them inaccurate. But even taking the thrust of your point, I wouldn't say that the rise in values of vintage watches are likely to mirror those of the last 35 years, and for a variety of reasons.

Edited: Nov 1, 2023

 

[STANDY]

kaplan

I think there are 2 problems, watches aren't graded and they are hard to trade, graded Pokemon cards are trading like crazy and due to this trading economy there is a healthy market there - this keeps people with money but not much time out of the market

Second is economical like everyone mentioned, these are middle class watches and middle class is fragile and dying is my opinion

Watch grading would be a game changer

You could never grade vintage watches. Too many brands and princes between them.

We already grade them by condition and price accordingly like (Speedmasters 101)
We have enough variables to grade a nice Connie between a mediocre one. And many members do it on nearly everyone they look at.

A system like Pokemon and baseball cards will never happen.

kaplan

graded Pokemon cards are trading like crazy and due to this trading economy there is a healthy market there

Only to Pokemon people…

 

[Caliber561]

Personally, I think the downward trend in the vintage market stems from the lack of qualified watchmakers/the increasing costs of servicing vintage watches. It would be interesting to see a chart of midrange vintage watch prices versus the cost of servicing over time.

 

[Dan S]

Tony C.

Your calculations are not inflation adjusted, which renders them inaccurate. But even taking the thrust of your point, I wouldn't say that the rise in values of vintage watches are likely to mirror those of the last 35 years, and for a variety of reasons.

Absolutely. And we aren’t talking about 30 years. The downturn has really only been apparent in the last couple of years. There was actually a big run up early in the pandemic as many people with discretionary funds and spare time entered the hobby.

 

[Davidt]

Caliber561

Personally, I think the downward trend in the vintage market stems from the lack of qualified watchmakers/the increasing costs of servicing vintage watches. It would be interesting to see a chart of midrange vintage watch prices versus the cost of servicing over time.

I disagree. I don’t think the short to medium term downtrend that we’re seeing at the minute has anything to do with this. It’s entirely down to the wider economy, increase in interest rates, reduction in disposable income etc.

Service costs and difficulties may impact prices in the medium to long term but I don’t think it will be a significant factor.

 

[PerJ]

Money was cheap and prices went up for many, many years. Now money isn’t cheap and prices have plateaued. Some speculation is therefore leaving the market and normal buyers have tougher times. This makes the market slow as expectations on both buyers and sellers side are far apart. Also many are awaiting to see where the market goes. This will continue for a while but eventually things will get back on track. It is just not gonna happen overnight.

 

[Caliber561]

Davidt

I disagree. I don’t think the short to medium term downtrend that we’re seeing at the minute has anything to do with this. It’s entirely down to the wider economy, increase in interest rates, reduction in disposable income etc.

Service costs and difficulties may impact prices in the medium to long term but I don’t think it will be a significant factor.

That's a fair point. This downtrend does seem to have been more of a short to medium term phenomenon.

 

[Redwes25]

Dan S

Absolutely. And we aren’t talking about 30 years. The downturn has really only been apparent in the last couple of years. There was actually a big run up early in the pandemic as many people with discretionary funds and spare time entered the hobby.

The downturn is tied to interest rates and really began in first half of ‘22. Hit new models first (which ran up more than vintage) but this year really impacting vintage as well.

 

[pdxleaf]

I'm curious if people are picking up new vintage pieces or if you're putting a full stop on purchasing?

I recently bought more than I have for awhile. Maybe it was a dumb move financially but I think I will be happy in the long run (in addition to now.)

In the last couple months I added these four watches. Two of them are more common (although in this condition was still a bit harder to find,) and two were pretty hard to find.



I'm going to have to sell a couple (not these, others in my box to make room). Not looking forward to that experience.

Edited: Nov 2, 2023

 

[sheepdoll]

I did not aquire any new watches in October. Not sure I got any In September either.

Now that it is the first of November I added two Swatches and 4 movements which arrived today. (One which actually sort of makes a watch if I can get one of the 4 running.) Technically I did pay for them in October but until they are in my hand they are vaporware.

When I got interested in watches back in the 1990s it was becouse the were becoming old and obsolete. I could have become just as interested in typewriters (But my parents tossed them out.) The thing is I like really cheap watches. And I mean cheap. My threshold is 65 bucks. 120USD at the most. Curiously in the 1990s I could find seamasters, and constellations this cheap. Chronos at this price though were caseless, which still seems to be the case. I had to really bend my rules for the speedmaster and the 18th century enameled watch.

Now I am down to A Schild, Enicar and swatch at these prices. With the occasional Heuer thrown in at the higher end of things. Perhaps a ladies omega here and there.

I thought perhaps a year ago after taking an 18 year break, I could sell off a few things. As watch speculation was hot. But what I have is mostly junk. Sure I could sell the seamasters and connies, but for what? I would just want to buy the same thing again. Any cash I would aquire would devalue quickly. I have no faith in metals like gold (other than industrial.) I think gold futures are over subscribed anyway.

I did manage to shift a box of Bulovas. Took forever and I probably got not much more than I paid in the 1990s. Shifted a few other things with some effort. Still have things I would not mind shifting, there really does not seem to be any desire for such stuff. Unless it is a rabbit hole part someone really needs.

I actually think the vintage market has not gone anywhere. Much of it seems the same now as 30 years ago. Possibly 60, although my 6 year old self did not have the sense to buy vintage back then. Or even new watches.

The quartz crisis changed how people looked at watches. Timex was already making them disposable. The wrting was already on the wall with the cheap pin levers sold in bulk to the 5 and dime stores. Quartz just accellerated the decline.

The good stuff was always expensive. Ironically much of that dates to this century. I took a pass on things like Seamaster 300s planet oceans etc becouse they were well over my 65 buck threshold. My emotion was for a watch to be attractive it had to 'Sing Opera.' I litterally spent the money on opera. Which I do no regret. Opera on the other hand has changed. Too much media and not enough of the old technical stuff. The newer performers can not sing withoug sound re-enforcement. Well it does make it sound like the recording.

Watches are much the same. Different erea, different rules of what is acceptable in society.

Meanwhile I spend an hour or more per day looking for cheap low cost rat watches, or parts to fix the ones I have, becouse there are millions offered for sale at any given instant.

 

[Bernhard J]

I would generally agree with the "downward pressure", but think that this has bottomed now. And this is the reason why I buy a lot presently. Look at this one, 18K case, ca. 1940, phantastic movement, unrestored dial, recently less than 700 € (including premium and shipping) at auction.

Edited: Nov 2, 2023

 

[Sa Calobra]

I am by no means an expert on gold price, but if the chart i looked at is correct, it's higher than ever. Do we see this reflected in the price correction for these pieces, i.e. they are in less decline?

 

[ecarpino]

Sa Calobra

I am by no means an expert on gold price, but if the chart i looked at is correct, it's higher than ever. Do we see this reflected in the price correction for these pieces, i.e. they are in less decline?

I think there is some arbitrage to be made there. Some 18k gold pieces are sitting there for a little while and thus not reflecting the sudden increase in gold value of the last month in their pricing.

My focus nowadays is on those pieces and on vintage pieces which I feel are undervalued or would keep or increase value almost surely (full set in great conditions, rare dials, etc.). But that is mostly because I have cash sitting that I don't want to lose because of inflation and I have a project of starting my own shop in a year and a half from now, when I will be done with the watchmaking school I am (hopefully) about to start August next year.

The huge collapse of the modern watches market made me also lose interest in those pieces. Maybe it will come back, but nowadays I feel stupid when I wear a big modern piece compared to a 34mm Seamaster from the 50s.

 

[Tony C.]

Bernhard J

I would generally agree with the "downward pressure", but think that this has bottomed now. And this is the reason why I buy a lot presently. Look at this one, 18K case, ca. 1940, phantastic movement, unrestored dial, recently less than 700 € (including premium and shipping) at auction.

I don't believe that the watch you present supports the argument that the market has reached a bottom. Based on a number of your recent posts, it is clear that you are focussed on the value represented by gold-cased watches. But as gold is currently at, or around all-time highs in most major currencies, that perception is much more likely related to the fact that the vintage watch market is not tightly correlated with gold value.

The movement in the watch is nice, but not uncommon for Zenith's of the period, and the dial, assuming originality, is purely subjective in terms of attractiveness.

I'm not suggesting that the watch did not represent good value, but it is not, in my view, anything like a compelling example of a bottom in the market.

 

[Bernhard J]

Tony C.

I don't believe that the watch you present supports the argument that the market has reached a bottom. Based on a number of your recent posts, it is clear that you are focussed on the value represented by gold-cased watches. But as gold is currently at, or around all-time highs in most major currencies, that perception is much more likely related to the fact that the vintage watch market is not tightly correlated with gold value.

The movement in the watch is nice, but not uncommon for Zenith's of the period, and the dial, assuming originality, is purely subjective in terms of attractiveness.

I'm not suggesting that the watch did not represent good value, but it is not, in my view, anything like a compelling example of a bottom in the market.

I respectfully disagree.

The movement is the highest grade of this caliber type, 17 jewels, in contrast to the indeed somewhat "common" 15 jewels. Further it is a quite late example of this caliber with this microregulator, contemporary Zeniths had comparably "boring" movements (but nevertheless good ones!)

The dial has a rare double signature, aside "Zenith" naming "E.Carabelli, Milano", a formerly well known and respected retailer in Milano. Concerning the design of the dial, of course this is subjective. I personally really like the reduced designs end of the 30s. And it is 18K, not the more common 14K.

So, if you would take the scrap value of the case, you would end up that the perfectly working movement with (imo) attractive dial and original hands would have a value of maybe 100 Euros. The seller would have been better off, if he had indeed scraped it and sold the movement separately. Because he has received about 540 € only from the auction house.

If that is not bottom, where would you see the bottom price line for this watch?

I still believe that the turnaround is near. And that anyone predicting even further falling prices for vintage watches of this kind and quality will think "had I!!!" in a few years. Anyway, I generally am a rather optimistic person, and this is a lot more fun than pessimism . I might, however, be completely wrong, but I do not mind. I am even then a lot better off than all those who had in the past year jumped onto the "Rolex rush" train ...

 

[pdxleaf]

ecarpino

The huge collapse of the modern watches market made me also lose interest in those pieces. Maybe it will come back, but nowadays I feel stupid when I wear a big modern piece compared to a 34mm Seamaster from the 50s.

Vintage, vintage, vintage. Another expensive service, can't find a part, chrono creap. I am done with vintage! The market is collapsing, why did I buy all these old watches? I am only buying new from now on! OMG, they're so shiny and over-designed.

Ooooo, look at that vintage watch..!

 

[Bernhard J]

Tony C.

Based on a number of your recent posts, it is clear that you are focussed on the value represented by gold-cased watches

This mainly is correct. The simple considerations are: 1) in long terms the gold price increased in the past more or less steadily, 2) if I buy what I like with a gold case, and perhaps have to sell in one or two decades, it is likely that I will get more than what I paid, even if my taste has proved bad, or unfshionable at least.

Results: 1) I have watches which I really like. 2) I will only then loose money in the long term, if the gold market crashes heavily (which is rather unlikely). 3) There even are chances that I (or my heirs) beat the inflation rate in long terms. At least better than jumping onto actual speculator hypes, whatever it be.

Finally: predictions are difficult, in particular if they relate to the future

 

[Bernhard J]

pdxleaf

Ooooo, look at that vintage watch..!

Oh yes, they are so much nicer designed, optically and technically, than all this extremely overexpensive modern mass production stuff (how much watches does e.g. Rolex produce annually?)

How many services of a how many vintage watches can you pay with the money that you would have lost, had you bought a new Rolex two years ago ...

 

[Dan S]

If you buy a gold watch near scrap value, it's a good price, but IMO it doesn't provide any evidence that the overall watch market has reached a bottom. Many gold watches have been selling near melt value in recent years, especially with the price of gold so high, and sport watches being so trendy (i.e. smaller dress watches not in fashion).

Edited: Nov 2, 2023

 

[pdxleaf]

Dan S

... and sport watches being so trendy (i.e. smaller dress watches not in fashion).

In my limited slice of the world (a small population sample), I think I have noticed a cooling of interest in chronographs with a shift towards cleanly designed time-only.

Anyone agree or disagree?