One of the consequences of the unprecedented asset bubbles that have been created by central banks over the past 10 years is that many, if not most investors and collectors have been lulled into a false sense of security in terms of rising values. Unless the biggest debt bubble in the history of the world can be resolved
without another major economic crisis – and good luck with that – the values of the vast majority of assets, certainly including collectibles, will deflate.
Focussing on vintage watches, it is of course true that there are other variables in play, and that the best and most desirable models will hold value during economic downturns better than others. But those who believe that values that have been inflated, at least in part, by CB-induced stock and property values, will
not come down when those major asset bubbles burst, are in for an unpleasant surprise.
In the wake of the 2008 crisis, does anyone truly imagine that the values of even the most coveted collectibles remained stable (let alone increased)?
I understand the appeal of Polerouters, but is there something intrinsic about them that was just discovered a year or two ago, catalyzing a near-doubling of values? The answer is no. And while fashion is an important catalyst of vintage watch values, I wouldn't count on it to support a price trajectory that is dubious to begin with.