https://www.liveauctioneers.com/item/31983903_universal-tri-compax-full-calendar-ref-22258-around 😁
I have 6 examples of reference 22258 and 59 between 946.791 and 997 in my database so I assume a batch of somewhere between 250 and 500 pieces.
If you assume that there was one watch of the same model for every serial in the given range, then I think you can treat this like a modified "German Tank Problem" with an unknown starting serial, and this says your estimate for the total should be:
(max_observed - min_observed) * (1 + (2 / num_observed - 1)) -1
In the case above this would yield an estimate of 288 total.
(I'm not quite sure why you can't model it as estimating the bounds of a discrete uniform probability distribution from which you have selected at random, but doing so seems to give slightly different results. 📖 )
Interesting. I am aware of this approach but it goes a bit above my IQ 😀
I only recorded the case numbers if the movement number was also known. With some (read: perhaps a lot of) digging more serials may be found.
If you assume that there was one watch of the same model for every serial in the given range, then I think you can treat this like a modified "German Tank Problem" with an unknown starting serial, and this says your estimate for the total should be:
(max_observed - min_observed) * (1 + (2 / num_observed - 1)) -1
In the case above this would yield an estimate of 288 total.
(I'm not quite sure why you can't model it as estimating the bounds of a discrete uniform probability distribution from which you have selected at random, but doing so seems to give slightly different results. 📖 )
Ok .. play time..is “num observed” = “Max observed - Min Observed” ? Thanks
I have 6 examples of reference 22258 and 59 between 946.791 and 997 in my database
With the one I posted above it should be 7.
I think 22258/9 were made in multiple batches. I have more records - again only: if I have both serial and movement number - than the 6 I mentioned.
However the first batch is all in the range I posted above. So:
Batch 1 946k
Batch 2 1.043m (around)
Batch 3 1.066/1.067m
Batch 4 1.156/1.157m
Total records: 12 of which 9 22258 and 3 22259. The one in Sala is also 946.xxx but unfortunately Sala rarely shows movement pics.
Just for the fun of it: ref 31250 (the famous Wilhelmina which is no Wilhelmina). 15 examples.
TN on serials (878-892k): 15.774
TN on movements: 12.316
Another one: 31.230 (11 examples)
TN on serials (1.029-1.032m): 3.866
TN on movements: 16.716
Interesting results
(I'm not quite sure why you can't model it as estimating the bounds of a discrete uniform probability distribution from which you have selected at random, but doing so seems to give slightly different results. 📖 )
Edit: missed some parentheses originally...
