Speedmaster prices creeping up?

saulgoodman · Nov 2, 2019

I read here recently that Omega has announced a price increase, but beyond that have the Speedy prices been creeping up? I generally keep track of prices, but this caught me a bit by surprise. I'll refer to the Sapphire Sandwich because it is the model I own. The Omega site MSRP is $6350. If I recall they had been at $6250 for a while, so that is not much of a price increase. However, grey market prices are definitely up more. In 2016 the grey big box sandwich was at about 4K. If memory serves, until recently it could be purchased grey for around $4500. Today Jomashop has it listed at $4975. They are going for about $4800 new on the bay with pre-owned in the high 3k's to low 4k's. The hesalite version is at $4295 on Joma, which is a significant increase from the recent prices in the mid 3K's. What's the deal? Is the Speedy grey market drying up? Don't tell me Omega is starting to pull a Rolex!

Claven2 · Nov 2, 2019

Omega is actively combatting the grey market, just like rolex. Also, everything goes up in price as the central banks run their printing presses and devalue currency. Unavoidable, I'm afraid.

Meme-Dweller · Nov 2, 2019

It's probably an effect of the Rolex sports shortage. People are turning to other luxury brands. I know for me personally, I didn't want to play the premium/VIP game, so instead of getting a ND Sub that I was intending to purchase, I bought a PO and couldn't be happier.

saulgoodman · Nov 2, 2019

Claven2
Omega is actively combatting the grey market, just like rolex.

I totally missed that news. Where did you hear/read that?

3nicewatches · Nov 2, 2019

saulgoodman
I totally missed that news. Where did you hear/read that?

Just google “swatch group grey market” and you will see the stories from July this year about this

EDIT: A link to one example https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/a...gray-market-omega-watch-just-got-a-lot-harder

Honza · Nov 2, 2019

I have been watching Omega watches for a while. There are some Speedmasters which are more expensive than they used to, however the regular Moon watch edition is still around 3000-3500 used. The planet ocean with the movements 2500 is still around $2500. These numbers are steady for at least a year +. thats what I have observed.

saulgoodman · Nov 2, 2019

3nicewatches
Just google “swatch group grey market” and you will see the stories from July this year about this

EDIT: A link to one example https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/a...gray-market-omega-watch-just-got-a-lot-harder

Interesting. I wonder if this will be the case with other Swatch Group brands like Hamilton that are heavily discounted on the grey market? A while back I picked up for $772 a grey Hamilton GMT that MSRP's for $1300. I love the watch, but I would have never paid anything close to retail for it. If this is a thing, it may be time to pick up that Hammy beater I've been pondering!

scapa · Nov 2, 2019

I was in the market for a Speedy Pro/FOIS for quite a while before sourcing one. Would definitely agree that prices have and continue to creep up for the more desirable models in the Seamaster and Speedy lines. The used market does seem to lag a bit behind official prices rises but catches up eventually, and the grey market is a lot quicker to respond -- a matter of weeks, if Chronext and Chrono24 are guides.

dsacks30 · Nov 2, 2019

Claven2
Also, everything goes up in price as the central banks run their printing presses and devalue currency. Unavoidable, I'm afraid.

Not really, prices should rise if inflation goes up, but we’re still living with almost zero inflation in the United States and Europe. I believe Swatch and other big brands peg the MSRP to USD, Euros, or Swiss Francs. So as long as there isn’t inflation in those markets a price increase would not be due to monetary policy. If a country other than the United States devalues its currency (say China), then the price would be adjusted in the Chinese market to make it equivalent to the price in USD. Otherwise there would be arbitrage opportunities.

So I would not chalk up Swatch’s decision to monetary policy.

saulgoodman · Nov 2, 2019

scapa
I was in the market for a Speedy Pro/FOIS for quite a while before sourcing one. Would definitely agree that prices have and continue to creep up for the more desirable models in the Seamaster and Speedy lines. The used market does seem to lag a bit behind official prices rises but catches up eventually, and the grey market is a lot quicker to respond -- a matter of weeks, if Chronext and Chrono24 are guides.

I would disagree with your comment on pre-owned Speedmasters. Just a cursory search on all the usual sites today revealed that they are up and selling for what NIB grey was commanding about one year to eighteen months ago, depending on condition and sides of course. They are by no means selling for above MSRP like the Rolex secondary market, but the Rolex thing didn't happen overnight. If Omega is indeed doing the same thing Rolex has done, I can only wonder where we will be in two years. While this is apparently good for the companies, it is bad news for consumers who may have to pay much more for Omega in the long run.

03Hemi · Nov 2, 2019

Lets see, Not knocking Rolex at all, they’re the litmas test for all high end to be jugged against from the “in crowd” to have, but considering they crank out 800,000 and their sister company 200,000 on an assembly line per year versus Omegas measly 100,000 total it’s not hard to differentiate between the two in my opinion. Love Rolex and deservedly the best mass produced watch in production, but they’re not an Omega. Jmo

saulgoodman · Nov 2, 2019

03Hemi
Lets see, Not knocking Rolex at all, they’re the litmas test for all high end to be jugged against from the “in crowd” to have, but considering they crank out 800,000 and their sister company 200,000 on an assembly line per year versus Omegas measly 100,000 total it’s not hard to differentiate between the two in my opinion. Love Rolex and deservedly the best mass produced watch in production, but they’re not an Omega. Jmo

I think you may need to look into your numbers again. Rolex doesn't put out their production numbers but a Fratello article I read recently estimates that number to be 800,000 to 900,000 per year. As of 2010 Omega manufactured 700,000 watches per year and I'm sure that number has not diminished drastically. Nevertheless, this topic is not about production numbers, it is about controlling prices.

03Hemi · Nov 2, 2019

saulgoodman
I think you may need to look into your numbers again. Rolex doesn't put out their production numbers but a Fratello article I read recently estimates that number to be 800,000 to 900,000 per year. As of 2010 Omega manufactured 700,000 watches per year and I'm sure that number has not diminished drastically. Nevertheless, this topic is not about production numbers, it is about controlling prices.

I’m probably off, but the last production number on Omegas was around 100,000 per year, regardless they’re significantly lower than Rolex. And again, I ‘m not knocking Rolex at all! Great watch, but they mass produce an exponentially amount more than Omega does each year.

3nicewatches · Nov 2, 2019

Any producer of anything can charge whatever the market will pay, plain and simple. That’s what Omega, Rolex and everyone else is doing. If they fly too close to the Sun, price increases will slow down or stop. So far, it looks like they are not too close to the Sun, at least at the boutiques and ADs. Omega might not be too far off though...

scapa · Nov 2, 2019

saulgoodman
I would disagree with your comment on pre-owned Speedmasters. Just a cursory search on all the usual sites today revealed that they are up and selling for what NIB grey was commanding about one year to eighteen months ago, depending on condition and sides of course. They are by no means selling for above MSRP like the Rolex secondary market, but the Rolex thing didn't happen overnight. If Omega is indeed doing the same thing Rolex has done, I can only wonder where we will be in two years. While this is apparently good for the companies, it is bad news for consumers who may have to pay much more for Omega in the long run.

I feel like we're in broad agreement. My point was not that used Speedmasters haven't gone up, but that there seems to be a brief lag between an official Omega price hike and the used market following suit. I agree that over time used prices have gone up noticeably enough to make some used current or recent models a less attractive proposition over grey/new.

gbesq · Nov 2, 2019

03Hemi
Lets see, Not knocking Rolex at all, they’re the litmas test for all high end to be jugged against from the “in crowd” to have, but considering they crank out 800,000 and their sister company 200,000 on an assembly line per year versus Omegas measly 100,000 total it’s not hard to differentiate between the two in my opinion. Love Rolex and deservedly the best mass produced watch in production, but they’re not an Omega. Jmo

Not sure where you’re getting the 100,000 annual production number for Omega. The brand procured 511,861 COSC certificates in 2015, the most recent year for which I can find figures. And yes, the grey market prices for the traditional Speedy Pro and sapphire sandwich have increased steadily over the past year.

03Hemi · Nov 2, 2019

Probably off a bit for 2019, but it’s still a a far cry from Rolex’s production.

saulgoodman · Nov 2, 2019

03Hemi
I’m probably off, but the last production number on Omegas was around 100,000 per year, regardless they’re significantly lower than Rolex. And again, I ‘m not knocking Rolex at all! Great watch, but they mass produce an exponentially amount more than Omega does each year.

Where did you get 100K?

Archer · Nov 2, 2019

saulgoodman
Where did you get 100K?

It’s a butthole number. Data is available that shows that 100k is very far off the reality.

scapa · Nov 2, 2019

03Hemi said: ↑
I’m probably off, but the last production number on Omegas was around 100,000 per year, regardless they’re significantly lower than Rolex. And again, I ‘m not knocking Rolex at all! Great watch, but they mass produce an exponentially amount more than Omega does each year.

saulgoodman said: ↑
Where did you get 100K?

The NYT estimated Omega's revenues as 1.9 billion in 2017.

https://www.nytimes.com/2017/11/15/fashion/watches-rolex-patek-philippe-omega.html

In the same article, they do a ballpark for production for several brands using COSC certificate numbers:

In 1932, the watchmaker became the official timekeeper of the Olympics, inaugurating a multimillion-dollar marketing effort recently extended to the 2032 Games. The relationship complements the brand’s reputation as an industrial powerhouse, second only to Rolex in producing chronometer-certified timepieces (511,861 in 2015, another number determined by COSC certificates).

Rolex registered 795,716 COSC certificates in that year.

Either way more than 100,000 units.

Speedmaster prices creeping up?

saulgoodman

Claven2

Meme-Dweller

saulgoodman

3nicewatches

Honza

saulgoodman

scapa

dsacks30

saulgoodman

03Hemi

saulgoodman

03Hemi

3nicewatches

scapa

gbesq

03Hemi

saulgoodman

Archer

scapa

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