100k buys you a lot of Speedmaster, even today.
Recent Christies auction saw a 2915-3 sell for about $80,000 and in my opinion was more attractive than this. So far an original 2998-1 with the BASE1000 bezel has not gone past $50k at auction, although I am expecting one to exceed that this year at auction even if its not this one. (Disregarding browns which have gone to around 70k for an absolutely exceptional example).
There are several brown dialed 2998's on offer at around $70,000 if you know where to look. None have sold so that should tell you something.
While those who are not buyers think there is a herd of uninformed potential Speedmaster buyers waiting to pounce on things like this, the reality is that for these really rare air items, the buyers can be counted and are probably less than a dozen. These buyers do not spend 100k with their eyes shut. Hell they don't spend 10k with their eyes shut. That's why they have the 100k in the first place.
They will go into combat, however, when something is truly special.
The question is, does this watch tick all the attraction boxes, as well as being 100% accepted as correct?
Lets look at the as found photo:
The first thing that strikes me is that this is potentially an amazing rare watch:
Triangle lume hands
Correct small indices dial
Lollipop hand
BASE1000 bezel.
What I do not like from this photo is the shape of the hour hand and its lume, the colour of the lollipop and the colour of the subdial hands. There appears to be a mark on the dial at 2 o'clock and this could be the crystal - but we need to clarify. If its on the dial then you can cut the value in half.
Lets look closer at the hand from the as found photo:
I have not been able to find a comparable hand to this on a 2998. Could it be a 2915-3 hand?
Here is a 2915-3 hand:
So no, It is not like this one.
So I examined the two side by side.
Is it the same hand? After too much time looking at it I think it is. The edges of the metal are not showing in the as found photo, but if you look carefully they are wider than first observed, and so while at first I thought the lume was too big for the hand, now I do not think that there is anything wrong.
I am willing to accept the as found photo was not under ideal conditions and so may be inaccurate due to lighting or something. The hand above is acceptable.
Lollipops really float my boat, I want a watch when I see the lollipop. I know very little about them, and I have seen them on 2915's all the way through the 2998's. Are they correct? I don't know. The famous "Danish 2998 site" proposed that only 2998-4 should have a lollipop from new. Personally if it is on a four digit reference I'll take it, even if some might say its not original, I would say it is contemporary.
So lets look at this lollipop. The colour is very white and so is the lume. in fact the sub dial hands are also very white and new looking. However I think they are acceptable to me.
So again lets reproduce the auction photo:
It looks so much better here.
Lume looks good, the lollipop looks a better colour and even the subdial hands look more in keeping.
Without the as found shot, I think this is a good watch.
Subject of course to checking the dial is clean.
All of this is only my opinion, there are others who know more, I only observe, and collate from previously observed watches.
To sumarize, if this hits more than $60,000, then it is setting new highs. Which it may well do.
EDIT: If i had to make a guess and a prediction, this watch will sell for $40,000 - $60,000 to a dealer.
The reason being it doesnt have the almost indefinable attraction that will bring in the private buyers to fight over it.
