So, who is "going" to the Watches of Knightsbridge Sale today?

JohnSteed · Mar 29, 2020

M'Bob
You are correct, of course. But..there may be that "reward" phenomenon that lies ahead: "I made it through this shit-show; I'm going to get myself something really nice to celebrate. What about those unfortunate souls that didn't make, and had regrets. I'm going for it!" The question, though, is when...

That’s the spirit,,,,🤔

JanV · Mar 29, 2020

JohnSteed
That’s the spirit,,,,🤔

This above! 😀😁😁

Wooden_spoon · Mar 29, 2020

I like the optimism

JohnSteed · Mar 29, 2020

@Lucasssssss thank you 👍

bgrisso · Mar 29, 2020

JohnSteed
That’s the spirit,,,,🤔

LOL. although the same could be said of many......

bazamu · Mar 29, 2020

JanV
The end of this saga is still unwritten, but i hope it’s not as bad as i imagine in my worst scenarios.

I think this pandemic and general macroeconomic "pause" won't help prices in the short-term, but barring a second wave of serious infections/deaths, I see this as more of a speed bump than a multi-year great depression. If it stretches out another 3+ months, then the damage will reverberate for the next year, and yes, there will be a sizable portion of the population that finds themselves out of work.

But. And there's a but. I would wager that many (not all, but many) of those people who find themselves temporarily out of work are not the people who would be bidding in a Sotheby's, Antiquorum, WoK auction. Yes, people will be a bit more careful when indulging their horology addiction and the new wave of collectors will likely hit the brakes for some time. But I just don't buy into COVID causing all industries (and by extension, all collectibles) to flatline for an indefinite period. If I see a great example of a watch that I've been chasing for the past year, I'm pouncing on it just like I would at any other time.

To tie this back to WoK, I would encourage anyone who is interested to look back through their prior auctions. If auction houses were categorized like stocks, they would be among those with the highest "beta" (a measure of a stock's volatility). For as long as I can remember, they have a sizable percentage of lots that pass. To read into this auction as a harbinger of our hobby's demise is a bit presumptive, in my opinion.

killer67 · Mar 29, 2020

ChicagoFrog
If I see a great example of a watch that I've been chasing for the past year, I'm pouncing on it just like I would at any other time.

You are in a privileged, though clearly not unique, position to purchase something you like if it comes along.
Regardless of of the length of time a collector has under his/her belt, not everyone may have the certainty that you have about: the duration/effect of this pandemic, their disposable income, level of risk aversion, the impact on a savings account or their immediate or long term income stream.

JanV · Mar 30, 2020

ChicagoFrog
I think this pandemic and general macroeconomic "pause" won't help prices in the short-term, but barring a second wave of serious infections/deaths, I see this as more of a speed bump than a multi-year great depression. If it stretches out another 3+ months, then the damage will reverberate for the next year, and yes, there will be a sizable portion of the population that finds themselves out of work.

True, the next three months are critical, very critical indeed. If we see a quick rebound (second wave) of Covid cases starting again to rise in any country after they start coming back to business in the next month, then leaders in Europe and US will most likely prolong any actions, thus affecting or setting in motion irreversible actions to the economy.

In my opinion i haven’t been a doomsday preacher here, but just wanted to “even” out the general discussion roaming on the forum or “vintage watches won’t be hit, it’s safe to buy at anytime...” kind of discussions, because they aren’t at least for the next three months when the world faces one of the biggest uncertainties it has seen in modern times.

I don’t want to see anyone here putting their hard earned money on an overpriced watch at this time just because a general consensus is being spread, like people recommending to buy stocks when the professionals run from them.

Nice pieces are always sold at premium prices as mentioned before, but for the novice collectors here i would recommend to sit this one out and wait the next three months as we haven’t yet seen the implications in full.

Let’s stay positive, but prepare and be ready for anything. 😀

size11s · Mar 30, 2020

I don't follow Omega prices but I watched some of the auction and thought most of the military watches did OK price wise, £6k + for the IWC MK11 is a strong price and the Dirty Dozen made £25k + which isn't too shabby either considering there is a limited market for a full 12. Mind you £4k + for the JLC MK11 was slightly on the low side, somebody will be really pleased with that, lovely watch.

queriver · Mar 30, 2020

Not vintage but collectable: We've had 2 Speedmaster Japan Racing's sold at auction this month: Lot 74 at Antiquorum and Lot 170 at Sotheby. Sotheby went for CHF11875 (approx USD12.5k) with blank warranty card. Antiquorum sold for CHF11250 (approx USD11.8k) with stamped warranty card.

These prices are in the same ballpark as 3 sold by a leading dealer here on OF over the last 9 months or so, and before COVID. I'm working off his asking prices which were USD10.8k without card, USD11.3k with blank card and USD12k with filled card. So the March auction results don't indicate a major impact on the JR market as yet and if the dealer sold for less than his asking, the market is holding up better.

JanV · Mar 30, 2020

queriver
Not vintage but collectable: We've had 2 Speedmaster Japan Racing's sold at auction this month: Lot 74 at Antiquorum and Lot 170 at Sotheby. Sotheby went for CHF11875 (approx USD12.5k) with blank warranty card. Antiquorum sold for CHF11250 (approx USD11.8k) with stamped warranty card.

These prices are in the same ballpark as 3 sold by a leading dealer here on OF over the last 9 months or so, and before COVID. I'm working off his asking prices which were USD10.8k without card, USD11.3k with blank card and USD12k with filled card. So the March auction results don't indicate a major impact on the JR market as yet and if the dealer sold for less than his asking, the market is holding up better.

Don’t forget to retract the approx 20% hammer (or even more) required to be paid by the seller also.

bgrisso · Mar 30, 2020

JanV
I don’t want to see anyone here putting their hard earned money on an overpriced watch at this time just because a general consensus is being spread, like people recommending to buy stocks when the professionals run from them.

People should not buy an overpriced watch in any market. What about buying a well priced watch in the current market? There's plenty around. Same with stocks, many are on sale right now. Should people wait for the prices to go back up before buying? It all depends on what you think the future holds. There's no consensus from the "professionals" about what to do with stocks or watches or anything else, and there never will be.

If I'm understanding you correctly, you feel it's best to stay in cash due to market uncertainty, and I'm not disagreeing with this common sense pov at all. It's just to take the next step beyond that is anyone's guess. There is opportunity in every market if you can accurately predict the trends, and there is obviously the potential for loss. I've had a fair amount of both.

bgrisso · Mar 30, 2020

JohnSteed
That’s the spirit,,,,🤔

I'm still laughing at the mcconaughey meme, I copied to my phone, many thanks for the comic relief !

JohnSteed · Mar 30, 2020

I got space here....

And I’m bringing this with me !!!

JohnSteed · Mar 30, 2020

JohnSteed
@Lucasssssss thank you 👍

Others may have a different viewpoint but the WoK price was sorta ok given condition....Matt Bain’s looks in better condish. Have you all seen it??

killer67 · Mar 30, 2020

JanV
Don’t forget to retract the approx 20% hammer (or even more) required to be paid by the seller also.

and that those watches were consigned last year

JohnSteed · Mar 30, 2020

K killer67
and that those watches were consigned last year

Thought it was 24% ? Hence that Zenith A386 £10,000 price minus 24% fee is £7,600 ? Or £8,000 if WoK fee is 29%

Well .... interesting for sure.

Spacefruit · Mar 30, 2020

WOK fee is 24% including UK VAT of 20%, which is charged only on the premium and only if the watch is delivered in UK.

Being sad, I mean isolated, I added up the total sale: they sold in total £616,200 of watches, before premium.

Their premium gives them an income of £123,240

Assuming all the watches delivered in UK the HMRC get just under £25,000 from the premiums, but they will also get some VAT from traders who will have a VAT liability on their profits.

Now the total low estimate of all the watches totaled £839,500. So WOK sales were 27% under the total of all the low estimates.

But if you add only the low estimate totals of the lots sold, that is £554,200 meaning of the lots sold, in total they beat the low estimates by 10%.

I have not done the same exercise on previous WOK sales, nor any other house, and lets hope in future I dont have the time on my hands to do so....

To sell over £600k of watches in this environment is quite an achievement I think.

Wing Zero · Mar 30, 2020

Rolex sports models seem to still bring strong money.

killer67 · Mar 30, 2020

JohnSteed
Others may have a different viewpoint but the WoK price was sorta ok given condition....Matt Bain’s looks in better condish. Have you all seen it??

Is Bains’ the MK3 for 18,5?

So, who is "going" to the Watches of Knightsbridge Sale today?

JohnSteed

JanV

Wooden_spoon

JohnSteed

bgrisso

bazamu

killer67

JanV

size11s

queriver

JanV

bgrisso

bgrisso

JohnSteed

JohnSteed

killer67

JohnSteed

Spacefruit

Wing Zero

killer67

Similar threads

50th anniversary of the moon landing, who is going to sell their 67' speedmaster?

Blue Dial Ed White In The Watches of Knightsbridge Sale?