Sending watch from US to EU/Netherlands

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I bought a watch as a gift for my brother's 50th. I live in the US but he's stuck in Amsterdam for the COVID-19 duration. I was planning on giving it to him when he traveled here (he intended to return to the US in the spring), but it looks like that won't be for a while now (his wife's US visa is delayed). I'm considering shipping him the watch.

It seems like I have a couple options: just ship him the watch without declaring true value, taking the risk on package loss without fully declared insurance, or pay all the tariffs and VAT.

If I choose to do the first, how big is the risk of a problem with customs? How can I assess the cost of the second? I can't find a decent guide on how to calculate all the fees, so I don't have any real idea of the cost. Could he get the duty and VAT refunded when he leaves the country?

And I'm aware of the ethical arguments around paying the tax and duty, but I don't find them persuasive in this case given that he's a temporary resident there and that this would clearly be tax and duty free if he could just come home.

 
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If you declare value and item sold dutch government tax 21% plus EUR 17 administration costs.
 
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Nederland govt will assess a value and collect regardless. Had to send a watch there for repair. Zero value declared. Still assessed and stuck in customs.
 
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Nederland govt will assess a value and collect regardless. Had to send a watch there for repair. Zero value declared. Still assessed and stuck in customs.
This depends. I know of watches that were send as gifts or repair and government did not tax. Maybe they had other descriptions
 
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I’d probably hold onto it for a few months. It’s quite a high value to take a chance on isn’t it?