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Ramblings about the future of vintage watch collecting

bazamu
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As pointed out earlier, this topic has been discussed in-depth quarterly for the past two years. Nothing has changed. At some point, less-important examples of vintage watches will lose steam, as well as examples of rare watches that don't have matching originality or top condition. Some brands are extremely mature in terms of price (all vintage Rolex, Speedies, Patek, etc), and to jump in now requires great discipline, genuine interest (not just buying to flip), a long expected ownership. If you buy top condition at a non-outrageous price, you likely won't ever see its value crater over the long run. There are other less-heralded brands that have shot up recently (UG, Heuer, Zenith, Tudor), and it seems like some people buy anything (i.e. poor condition at a high/market price) just to not miss the boat while they continue to rise in value. Those are the people who will be hurt whenever the market moves on or if macroeconomic changes (rising interest rates, recessions, etc.) change spending habits for the majority of collectors.

Buy the best possible condition examples every time, avoid paying stratospheric prices, and in the intermediate term (5-10 years) and longer term (10+), I feel extremely confident in saying that your "investment" will be fine.
 
Syrte
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Larry S Larry S
They are fun, cool, beautiful and collectible. They don't require a 19 bay garage. As long as folks appreciate the finer things in life we will be fine. As long as there are independent watchmakers who also do restoration we will be fine.

bazamu ChicagoFrog
At some point, less-important examples of vintage watches will lose steam....
Buy the best possible condition examples every time, avoid paying stratospheric prices, and in the intermediate term (5-10 years) and longer term (10+), I feel extremely confident in saying that your "investment" will be fine.

Agreed with this, but if we're being concrete and practical: 5K watches may be fine -- 500$ watches remains to be seen.
One person's "affordable" price is another person's "stratospheric" price.
Buying a top condition desirable watch for a price that's "not stratospheric" by many people's standard is starting to be a challenge, takes a lot of research, and quite a bit of luck combined.
 
Larry S
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Gotta avoid lemming like behavior. Recognize a bubble.
 
ATWG
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You know there is a bubble when people on this VERY forum buy watches only to turn around and sell them a few months later for quite a handsome profit....bubble, really? Wake up people! I'm not in this for profit, I genuinely enjoy the hobby for what it is, a hobby, nothing more nothing less. You meet some interesting people along the way and get the opportunity to handle some unique and quite interesting pieces. I don't obsess over is price, rather condition and provenance, that has been my guiding principles that have served me well.

Bubble gum anyone?
 
ac106
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cvrle1 cvrle1
You forget there is a large group of people that dont even have cell phones, let alone smart watches, but they do have wrist watches. They dont have cell phones not because they dont want them, but because they cant afford them. Also, if you look at sales numbers of watches vs smart ones, you will again see that regular ones are outselling smart by massive margin (in 2015) 1.2B vs 36M. Share of market: 77% vs 23% for mechanical. So again, to say they are obsolete and unnecessary is quite foolish

And to be fair, numbers from 2016: 1.2B vs 50M. Still 77% vs 23% in market share.


Dude. Stop. There are 6.8 billion cell phone subscriptions worldwide and only 7 billion people. Obviously wealthy counties have higher penetration rates by Africa is something like 67%. The whole world has phones.

All cell phones tell time btw not just smartphones
 
U
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Larry S Larry S
Gotta avoid lemming like behavior.

Yeah, that'll happen!

163176-ea04267c15a63a755a7c048309da0257.jpg



This thread is turning into:

catfight_zps5fezkgb9.png

fight_zpsclmgayiw.png


Oh, and one other thing I've posted before:

fb98e2cb-22e6-40ba-a15a-163e59714837_zpsabwjfosg.png
 
al128
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Syrte Syrte
It's quite early to say what will happen with smart watches, for sure -- but I'm not sure where it is that people don't have cell phones because they can't afford them. It may be true in the Western world, but in large swathes of Africa, where there is no running water or electricity people have cell phones because they are so critically essential. I have seen it with my own eyes in remote regions of Sudan and Burkina Faso.

+1
I live in S-America and in my country there are more active cel phones than habitants ... go figure ...

also - a couple of days ago there were wildfires in a poor part of a mayor city (think sheds) ...of course all news media were there - live breaking-news broadcasts... I was truly impressed to see so many people running with (their saved) flat screen TVs out of their houses ...


... and my wife and I were really amazed as they ALL were bigger than ours ...::facepalm1::
 
SpeedyAV
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al128 al128
+1
I live in S-America and in my country there are more active cel phones than habitants ... go figure ...

also - a couple of days ago there were wildfires in a poor part of a mayor city (think sheds) ...of course all news media were there - live breaking-news broadcasts... I was truly impressed to see so many people running with (their saved) flat screen TVs out of their houses ...


... and my wife and I were really amazed as they ALL were bigger than ours ...::facepalm1::

@al128 you live in S-America? Are you the guy in Peru selling the Speedy everyone is red flagging about 😒?
 
al128
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Larry S Larry S
Gotta avoid lemming like behavior. Recognize a bubble.

I have mentioned this a couple of times before:

in order to have a bubble you NEED to have credit in there...

as long as people buy watches with their discretionary income, there will be a significant amount of those who just sit a correction out.

If in the 2007 subprime crisis, all houses would have been bought/owned in cash, there would not have been a need to sell at low prices (you just keep living in your house)... the problem was that people had to sell at ridiculous prices b/c they couldn't pay back the loans. Technically it wasn't event the people it was their loaning banks (CREDIT!) who sold the houses at low prices.

My Rolex Sub just lost 20% of market value? ... do I give a fυck? its still 80% more worth than I paid for it 6 years ago ... so why should I sell? I'd rather use it and wait a year or two when prices are up again.

there will be corrections but I get the feeling that we will start seeing a lot of "Guess what I picked up for cheap today" threads.
 
al128
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SpeedyAV SpeedyAV
@al128 you live in S-America? Are you the guy in Peru selling the Speedy everyone is red flagging about 😒?

No - but I get hurt by any scam artist coming out of Peru or Argentina/Uruguay ... it mostly has to do with "generalizations" of ignorant people ... 😗

oh.... and there are 647.000.000 others who ain't selling the speedy either ...
 
SpeedyAV
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al128 al128
No - but I get hurt by any scam artist coming out of Peru or Argentina/Uruguay ... it mostly has to do with "generalizations" of ignorant people ... 😗

oh.... and there are 647.000.000 others who ain't selling the speedy either ...

I think I forgot to add a 😉 after my ? because I hope you didn't think I was being serious 👎
 
U
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al128 al128
+1
I live in S-America and in my country there are more active cel phones than habitants ... go figure ...

Don't the Cartels mandate each employee have a minimum of 3 cell phones each? 😜

..... sorry, couldn't resist.
 
semper_shells
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SpeedyAV SpeedyAV
I'm not familiar with historical prices of Speedies and GMT's, but am curious if there has been a market correction for these in the past?

I'm still waiting for a market correction for *any* aircooled 911, but am not confident that there will be one.

At this point I have settled on just maybe owning a Targa. I let the air-cooled dream go a while ago.
 
Dgercp
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I can put all my money in the market, and can lose 1/3 of it overnight when the market tanks.
I can also lose 1/3 of my vintage watch value over time (but not overnight). The difference is that I get no joy over my money sitting with my broker in Morgan Stanley. I get tremendous joy in my watches. I spend 1-2 hours daily looking at watches, learning about watches, taliking to other watch friends, etc. This hobby has become a small part of who I am, and it's value is priceless. And when the vintage market tanks, at least I will still own these beautiful mechanical marvels. So, with vintage watches, the only thing I am really risking is money. No big deal.
 
al128
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Dgercp Dgercp
I can put all my money in the market, and can lose 1/3 of it overnight when the market tanks.
.

Not really ... Mathematically only true if you bought your whole collection at max price the day before the market tanks 30%.

If you built up your collection over the past 2-5 years you are still way ahead even if the market takes a 30% dive.

So even in a fairly grim scenario there is limited downside, especially if you're an old hand...

Then let's not get into the discussion of who he really buys/bought here at market price... Most folks here - I'd venture the guess - buy/bought on average 20-50% below market to begin with.

Again that limits the down side...
Edited:
 
watchknut
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what happens when 3D printing gets better and parts can easily be fabricated? I hope that people invest to make high quality parts for watchmakers to use.

If the OEMs don't do it, someone needs to...
 
U
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watchknut watchknut
what happens when 3D printing gets better and parts can easily be fabricated? I hope that people invest to make high quality parts for watchmakers to use.

If the OEMs don't do it, someone needs to...

Someone already does - the Chinese. They don't have to use 3D technology either.
 
watchknut
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U ulackfocus
Someone already does - the Chinese. They don't have to use 3D technology either.
I hear you...I meant more formalized.
 
Tony C.
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al128 al128
I have mentioned this a couple of times before:

in order to have a bubble you NEED to have credit in there...

as long as people buy watches with their discretionary income, there will be a significant amount of those who just sit a correction out

You are wrong about this for a couple of main reasons, one of which is quite ironic.

First, while it is true that direct credit is often a primary driver of major bubbles, collectors' markets develop bubbles even though most purchases are typically made by those who can well afford the items at the time of purchase, and pay cash. From Fine Art to vintage automobiles and beyond, there are historical examples of bubbles which eventually burst, and not because most of those who bought suddenly developed credit problems like home or car buyers.

Secondly, it is the insanely loose monetary policies of Central Banks that have catalyzed current bubbles in stock markets, real estate, vintage cars and watches, etc. Not only have many of those with money been benefitting directly from the *free* money created on keyboards (trillions of dollars since the '08 crisis), and artificially suppressed interest rates set by Central Banks, but most who are feeling reasonably good about their economic positions based at least partly on the value of their homes are, for all practical purposes, making purchases based on credit bubble-fueled values of those very homes!

In other words, even if they are not paying for watches with credit cards, the values of the buyers' homes, which are seriously inflated and supported by staggering credit/debts created by Central Banks, play a big role in their behavior as consumers. So, it is this form of indirect credit/debt that has helped to catalyze the current bubbles, including those seen in the vintage watch market.

If the underlying assets (e.g. stock share and property values) were stable, then it might be reasonable to argue that current vintage watch (or car, etc.) values are rational, and will continue to rise for a long time to come. But those (credit-fueled) assets are anything but stable, and when the bursting of those bubbles accelerates, the vintage watch market will certainly not be spared.
Edited:
 
Screwbacks
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i have read or seen on tv not long ago where it was featured that vintage watches especially the higly collectible pieces have become a reliable guaranteed investment instrument than just put your money in low interest deposit. if you buy a nice vintage now and hold it for a year or two, a pretty good return is waiting if you decide to let it go.
 
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