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Ramblings about the future of vintage watch collecting

  1. Faz Jan 5, 2017

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    Hi all,

    Ivan been working graveyard shift lately and I tend to "think" a lot so to speak while working through the wee hours of the morning. I was wondering if vintage watch collecting has a future from now on? The reason this question popped up was prompted by the numerous and recurring inquiries made here and on various other forums with regards to servicing, parts availability and yes, value.

    Over the course of the 20 years I've been enjoying vintage watches, I've been bumped out so to speak, of certain segments of vintage watches. The days of sports Rolex and now vintage Speedmasters are gone for me. As soon as I started exploring other brands of watches with interesting movements I could only see that many many people have entered the game making finding pieces at accessible prices extremely difficult. But more so, if you find interesting pieces, the issue of parts and service loom.

    Do the issues and concerns over the availability of parts, competent and experienced watchmakers and value of watches, now and in the future, jeopardize vintage watch collecting as we know it? I have a fear that vintage watch collecting for the simple enthusiast is quickly moving into the realm of speculators and collectors with very deep pockets.

    Thoughts?
     
  2. Davidt Jan 5, 2017

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    Nah. There's far too many of the entry level models (60's Seamaster dress models etc) knocking about to ensure 'new' watches keep popping up and knackered ones can be used for parts.

    Generic pushers, crystals, seals etc will sure be produced as long as there's a market.
     
  3. Canuck Jan 5, 2017

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    I learned Watch Repair a long time ago. I learned on the stuff that many people collect today. As to modern watches? So many makers have withdrawn the supply of parts to people like me. But there will always be those who cherish an artifact for which many parts are still available. I've been in it long enough that I have a large bank of obsolete watch parts, as well as hundreds of pounds of "donor" watches. I submit there will always be watch collecting of one sort or another, but it certainly is likely to change.

    Most service centres are now turning down the repair of obsolete calibers. They are the ones with the PARTS! But they won't supply them. Won't supply or repair! A lot of these watches are being retired to someone's sock drawer. This can't be a factor that pleases a lot of people!

    I'll always be a collector. What am I going to do with my collection? That is for my heirs to decide!
     
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  4. oddboy Zero to Grail+2998 In Six Months Jan 5, 2017

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    Ever hear of a "pocket watch" ?

    :eek:
     
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  5. ATWG Jan 5, 2017

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    I wouldn't be that pessimistic. Just wait until a nice market correction and thats when you will be able to buy your Speedies and GMT's at a substantial discount. It's not a matter of if, but when. As for parts, the same phenomenon exists in vintage car collection sector as well. Suppliers will come along and fill in the vacuum with genuine aftermarket parts. Where there is demand, there will be supply.
     
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  6. Davidt Jan 5, 2017

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    I'm assuming the general lack of interest in pocket watches is fashion rather than parts availability, knowledgable watchmakers isn't it? Still, I think there's a reasonable chance that wristwatches will be thought of in the same vein in 50 years time.
     
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  7. SpeedyAV Jan 5, 2017

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    I'm not familiar with historical prices of Speedies and GMT's, but am curious if there has been a market correction for these in the past?

    I'm still waiting for a market correction for *any* aircooled 911, but am not confident that there will be one.
     
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  8. grizzlycanuck Jan 5, 2017

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    I'm curious if there has been a market correction previously?? I would love to see a chart over the last 10-20 years. Was there a dip in 2008 during the financial crisis? I wasn't collecting then. I know markets can't continually rise, but seems to me there's going to be a lot of people buying if there is a correction :thumbsup:
     
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  9. Kmart Jan 5, 2017

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    I'm not so sure about that. I think the parts issue is kind of a separate discussion from the skyrocketing prices on Subs and Speedies -- or the entire category of vintage tool watches in general. The problem is that there exists only a finite (and small) amount of, for example, pre-moon Speedmaster cases/dials. In collectible condition, these watches will only continue to be become more rare and thus command a higher price.

    Of course, parts availability also comes into servicing something like a 321 movement, but I think the value of these watches basically will continue to go up until they will only be able to be afforded by very wealthy collectors. In OP's words, bumping people out of that segment entirely.
     
  10. ATWG Jan 5, 2017

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    Of course, I wasn't referring to dials or cases, those are elements of the watch that can not be replaced! I was referencing movement parts which everyone is fretting over.
     
  11. ATWG Jan 5, 2017

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    Absolutely, there has been a rise/fall of Rolex Subs (Red in particular) as well is 1655's. It's well documented in other forums.
     
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  12. ATWG Jan 5, 2017

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    I'm looking for G50 myself...it will come, market is way too competitive at the moment.
     
  13. MPWATCH Watch Lover Jan 5, 2017

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    We've been able to tell time with other technology since the late 60s - 70s ( I'm sure a member will have a detailed account of the exact month/day we had other digital timing technology). Point I am trying to get at is that luxury timepieces (old and new) are not purchased for the sake of telling time. It's a status symbol. Our egos will fuel the market at least during my lifetime. I don't see human beings losing their natural thirst for competition/attention anytime soon, thus status symbols will remain & the values will change based on outside market fluctuations.

    The internet has also given new collectors all the information needed to become a knowledgable collector. Having said that, more recent generations don't have the grit to get it done. As someone 21 years of age, I can honestly say I don't know of anyone within +/- 1 year of life that would have any interest in scouring a fourm, resource, or encyclopedia for the reason why a lug was changed by 45 degrees.

    Non the less, all fields of collecting deal with these types of issues. Watches are here to stay.

    Best,

    Thomas
     
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  14. SpeedyAV Jan 5, 2017

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    Our biggest problem is that they've stopped producing aircooled 911s and the economy is supposedly good. I wouldn't mind seeing Porsche produce a new special edition aircooled 911, but I would like for the economy to continue staying supposedly good.
     
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  15. Faz Jan 5, 2017

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    The question is, how acceptable will aftermarket parts be? The sacro-saint "originality" will be challenged but for a very good reason...to keep those vintage chronos and watches ticking...in the end, access to "original" might be reserved to the fortunate few.

    As far as market corrections are concerned, to this date I've not seen any correction other than a flattening of prices as far as Rolex is concerned. As I mentioned in my original post, vintage watches and especially chronographs have ballooned. Other than stabilize, I doubt that the pre-moon Speedmaster market will correct itself. In other words out of reach.
     
    Edited Jan 5, 2017
  16. oddboy Zero to Grail+2998 In Six Months Jan 5, 2017

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  17. Faz Jan 5, 2017

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    Very interesting...
     
  18. oddboy Zero to Grail+2998 In Six Months Jan 5, 2017

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  19. kkt Jan 5, 2017

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    Perhaps, Thomas, however value based on status symbols are terribly fickle. This year's hot fashion item could be completely out of style in 5 years... like a 1974 Impala was considered good looking, giving a desirable floaty ride, and American when new, but by 1979 was considered old style, inefficient, boring to drive, domestic, and unmaneuverable. The car didn't change, but fashion did. The mechanical watch market won't disappear, but I wouldn't bet more than I was prepared to lose that today's collector's grail watches will continue to be the grail watch when I (or my heir) is ready to sell them.

    What if future Apple watches and their imitators get even better, allowing full customization and programming of the screen with millions of graphic elements plus loading any animations you wanted? What if they could be smooth and tasteful, or garish and loud, depending what you were in the mood for? What if it wasn't a pain in the butt to program it? I do a little amateur astronomy; wouldn't it be nice to specify a watch with nighttime mode that was completely dark, with UTC in faint red when a button is pushed? What if it showed RA, Dec of the zenith of the sky at all times, taking your location from the built-in GPS?

    I would still want mechanical watches... but I bet fewer people would be getting into them.
     
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  20. Davidt Jan 6, 2017

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    +1