Originally about tariffs and watches ... now just political rambling

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Hilariously, he was taking credit for the economy in January of 2024! But now it's all Biden's fault.

It's the Trump coin flip, where his rules are "Heads I win, tails you lose!" It is the greatest coin flip in the history of coin flips! 🤣🤣🤣
Now confirmed on Sunday...

“When does it become the Trump economy?” Welker asked Trump in the extensive interview that aired Sunday.

“It partially is right now,” Trump replied. “I think the good parts are the Trump economy, and the bad parts are the Biden economy.”


🤣🤣🤣🤣
 
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Biden allowed 7 million INTO the country unvetted 2020-2024.
Not true, that is the number of encounters, not the number released into the US. The latter is still a big number, though, probably about 2.8M.
 
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Are you saying that you are going to stop researching this because of the way in which you have been criticized around what you said about trade deficit?
Not at all, but I’ve duly noted that the responses to my honest jaunt down the internets looking for unbiased info (and posting on here) have included the type of responses Ive come to expect….(usually) healthy discourse with the subtle jabs.
 
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Mr. Pdxleaf, approx. 7 million illegals crossed border 2020-2024. Tell us all how we go back and verify the identities and criminal pasts of the 7 million. Let say only 10% are criminals. 700,000 on American streets. Let us say 1%. 70,000 criminals on American streets. Your fine and dandy with this I assume. Biden process was fine, come on in, we don't care who you are.

More than once, President of the United States Donald J Trump has stated immigration is wonderful. Just follow the legal process that all other countries in the world enforce.
Caveat, I don't know much about the legal details about immigration and I don't have specific concrete solutions. But just because I know little about it doesn't mean I don't think I am an expert. 😆 so for what it's worth, here are my thoughts. I know I can be wrong and biased so here goes. I'll try to hit the highlights of a complicated issue.

It does appear that the US has lost control over it's borders. I agree that a country should determine for itself who can visit and become a citizen.

I think immigration is the lifeblood of this country. Immigration has what made us achieve greatness and immigration is vital if we want to continue to be a success. With the exception of the Native American population and the black slave population, the rest of us are fortunate to have been able to immigrate. My mother was born in Germany and became naturalized. Immigration is one of the biggest things that made America great. I think we should be doing everything in our power to continue to attract immigrants.

This does not mean open borders and anyone can come and go as they please. Seven million people sounds like a lot, but it isn't that many to all of America. My preference would be to have a controlled process that would allow pretty much everyone to come in who wants to. We need workers and immigrants are some of the hardest workers who make the most grateful future citizens. New arrivals would get a working visa or something similar. (Citizens should have a unique id card, as opposed to using driver's licenses for identification. Everyone needs driver's licenses, even non- citizens. It confuses citizenship with safety to use driver's licenses. Immigrants could get something to identify themselves that notes that they can work but aren't yet citizens. But this is an aside.)

The strategy might be different. I would build tactics around encouraging immigration and allowing people to come in, as opposed to keeping people out or kicking out people who are here. (The irony is that illegal immigrants are always arrested at work. A Mexican American comedian had a great joke. He said "you know, there are a lot of stereotypes about Mexicans that just aren't true. We aren't all hard workers!")

This strategy still implies a controlled process. It's gotten chaotic for many reasons, but it doesn't mean it's not possible to deal with. Without getting into details, some of our own foreign policies destabilized Central and South America, creating some of the chaos. Regardless of the causes, I acknowledge we have a border crisis.

I don't think there are as many criminals as Trump says. Even so, I trust our court system to deal with criminals more than ICE. The only thing that gives you and me freedom is the court system. The bill of rights is a bunch of empty words if we can't know what we are charged with, face our accuser, and defend ourselves in a court with a jury of our peers. There are way more citizens who are criminals than noncitizens. I literally had a drug house next door to me. I live in an expensive area of my town and had a family move in next door, the mom took up with an ex-con drug seller and the dad moved out. Cars and traffic all night. Two little kids in the house. We neighbors spent about a year and a half trying to get them out, working together and with the police. On one occasion towards the end, the police raided the house and were outside with AR15s while the guy was instead. I took my daughter down into the basement in case of stray bullets. I could go into a lot more details but the point is that these were citizens, and secondly, I am familiar with crime. But we can't have government enforcers going into houses and shipping people off to prisons. Using your analogy of 10% criminals and 1% on the street, let's say the government successfully grabs all 10% criminals and 1% are innocent. 1% is too much. What's more, they're not going to be that accurate. Who decides who's a criminal? They haven't been tried so who says they broke the law? A neighbor, a co-worker? And who decides what is a bad enough offense to be arrested? You know it's not going to only be for violence, it'll eventually get into thought control, as in I don't like how you talk about the people in power.

A bit of rambling, but that's sort of my perspective on immigration.

We haven't discussed the meth and Fentanyl crisis. This is something that is more of a crisis than immigration to me. The fact that China is not doing more to stop shipping the ingredients for fentanyl is more aggravating to me than that they are subsiding their industries breaking free trade agreements. I can agree with a targeted set of economic restrictions including tariffs to encourage solar generation in the USA, which has been undermined by China's subsidies for solar production in their own country.

Good question. Thanks for asking, even if you called me a "mister."
 
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Caveat, I don't know much about the legal details about immigration and I don't have specific concrete solutions. But just because I know little about it doesn't mean I don't think I am an expert. 😆 so for what it's worth, here are my thoughts. I know I can be wrong and biased so here goes. I'll try to hit the highlights of a complicated issue.

It does appear that the US has lost control over it's borders. I agree that a country should determine for itself who can visit and become a citizen.

I think immigration is the lifeblood of this country. Immigration has what made us achieve greatness and immigration is vital if we want to continue to be a success. With the exception of the Native American population and the black slave population, the rest of us are fortunate to have been able to immigrate. My mother was born in Germany and became naturalized. Immigration is one of the biggest things that made America great. I think we should be doing everything in our power to continue to attract immigrants.

This does not mean open borders and anyone can come and go as they please. Seven million people sounds like a lot, but it isn't that many to all of America. My preference would be to have a controlled process that would allow pretty much everyone to come in who wants to. We need workers and immigrants are some of the hardest workers who make the most grateful future citizens. New arrivals would get a working visa or something similar. (Citizens should have a unique id card, as opposed to using driver's licenses for identification. Everyone needs driver's licenses, even non- citizens. It confuses citizenship with safety to use driver's licenses. Immigrants could get something to identify themselves that notes that they can work but aren't yet citizens. But this is an aside.)

The strategy might be different. I would build tactics around encouraging immigration and allowing people to come in, as opposed to keeping people out or kicking out people who are here. (The irony is that illegal immigrants are always arrested at work. A Mexican American comedian had a great joke. He said "you know, there are a lot of stereotypes about Mexicans that just aren't true. We aren't all hard workers!")

This strategy still implies a controlled process. It's gotten chaotic for many reasons, but it doesn't mean it's not possible to deal with. Without getting into details, some of our own foreign policies destabilized Central and South America, creating some of the chaos. Regardless of the causes, I acknowledge we have a border crisis.

I don't think there are as many criminals as Trump says. Even so, I trust our court system to deal with criminals more than ICE. The only thing that gives you and me freedom is the court system. The bill of rights is a bunch of empty words if we can't know what we are charged with, face our accuser, and defend ourselves in a court with a jury of our peers. There are way more citizens who are criminals than noncitizens. I literally had a drug house next door to me. I live in an expensive area of my town and had a family move in next door, the mom took up with an ex-con drug seller and the dad moved out. Cars and traffic all night. Two little kids in the house. We neighbors spent about a year and a half trying to get them out, working together and with the police. On one occasion towards the end, the police raided the house and were outside with AR15s while the guy was instead. I took my daughter down into the basement in case of stray bullets. I could go into a lot more details but the point is that these were citizens, and secondly, I am familiar with crime. But we can't have government enforcers going into houses and shipping people off to prisons. Using your analogy of 10% criminals and 1% on the street, let's say the government successfully grabs all 10% criminals and 1% are innocent. 1% is too much. What's more, they're not going to be that accurate. Who decides who's a criminal? They haven't been tried so who says they broke the law? A neighbor, a co-worker? And who decides what is a bad enough offense to be arrested? You know it's not going to only be for violence, it'll eventually get into thought control, as in I don't like how you talk about the people in power.

A bit of rambling, but that's sort of my perspective on immigration.

We haven't discussed the meth and Fentanyl crisis. This is something that is more of a crisis than immigration to me. The fact that China is not doing more to stop shipping the ingredients for fentanyl is more aggravating to me than that they are subsiding their industries breaking free trade agreements. I can agree with a targeted set of economic restrictions including tariffs to encourage solar generation in the USA, which has been undermined by China's subsidies for solar production in their own country.

Good question. Thanks for asking, even if you called me a "mister."
Excellent, thoughtful response and I’m sorry your family had to witness such.
 
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Golden that you’ve cited cherry-picking while quoting a response containing an infographic that was posted by a left-leaning dude on X. I was honestly looking for info this morning from (hopefully) unbiased sources. We’re all just watch friends around here having a healthy debate. So much for trying to educate myself on an issue I freely admitted I know little about…but I do appreciate the watch advice you give. Always good and appreciated.
So I'll ask this - very straightforward. Do you believe that 270% tariffs are being charged on dairy the US is exporting to Canada?
Edited:
 
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I have been reading that there was a lot of inventory stockpiling and consumer pull-forward in March/April, which confounded some of the economic signals. My own household participated in this, as my wife bought a new car that she otherwise would have put off for some time.
The kid bought a Mazda 3 Turbo for the same reason. Get it before the s..t flies.
 
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Rebuilding Alcatraz now 😜
 
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So I'll ask this - very straightforward. Do you believe that 270% tariffs are being charged on dairy the US is exporting to Canada?
Hell, I don’t know. That’s why I went digging. That fact came from AI.
 
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Excellent, thoughtful response and I’m sorry your family had to witness such.
Thanks. Not trying to melodramatic, just demonstrating that I'm not living in a fantasy bubble.

It was also around the same time as George Floyd's murder and defund the police. The police who worked with us were a special drug unit and were aware of the house. When we first met with them because we suspected drug activity, they informed us how bad it really was. Great guys, overworked and understaffed.

At the same time, there are biases in policing that need to be addressed. Defundng was not the solution. The idea came out of a community that felt powerless, abused and ignored. Perhaps there are similarities to the immigration issue. I think the current immigration policing practice may be an extreme along the same lines of thinking as defend the police. Not an exact comparison of course.

Dave
 
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Hell, I don’t know. That’s why I went digging. That fact came from AI.
90% of everything your read or hear is crap [*], "social media" on the internet takes that to 99.8% utter crap.

[*] Sturgeon's Law c1950 -- with similar estimates going back over 100 years....
 
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Hell, I don’t know. That’s why I went digging. That fact came from AI.
I think that's fair, and tbh commendable to make the effort to understand. Certainly the way these things are often presented is they are stated as fact. On the face if it, were aggressive tariffs in place retaliation would be understandable. But the detail is important and using this specific example of 270% on dairy into Canada, the detail is that there is large amount of dairy tariff free trade allowed, only were this to get to very high volumes, where it would damage the indigenous industry would the tariffs apply, and this i think also makes sense, Canada want to ensure they have a viable dairy industry, would not be sensible to allow the destruction of their dairy in its entirety.

The problem as I see it is the nuance is completely ignored, and the US administration is presenting, what is pretty open and mutually beneficial global trade as something that the world is doing to the US that is hostile. Its not. In my opinion China is more complicated and US probably need to move to address that. But not with a tit for tatt poorly executed trade war.

Personally I like AI, but you have to be super accurate with your prompts.

And for the record, Science guy too, so take all that with a grain of rice
 
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MRC MRC
90% of everything your read or hear is crap [*], "social media" on the internet takes that to 99.8% utter crap.

[*] Sturgeon's Law c1950 -- with similar estimates going back over 100 years....
I tried an experiment with getting chatgpt to write a little about the Ed White speedmaster. The style was not bad, although a bit dull. It wasn't 90% wrong, but it had a few details 100% wrong, which if you didn't already know then it wouldn't have popped out. That 10% of wrong negated the benefit of the other 90%.

It's not going away. Bill Gates said something to the effect that he thinks AI will be a bigger change than personal computers.

Now back to our regularly scheduled program, already in progress...
 
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The list is depressingly long. He was extremely militaristic, and facilitated a number of highly damaging, neoliberal-inspired "operations" on his watch. They included Libya (2011), and the U.S. sponsored coup in Ukraine in 2014, a huge catalyst for Russia's subsequent actions, which obviously resonate loudly today. He also chose policies in the Middle East that are directly related to much of the instability in the region today, and his record in Iraq and Afghanistan are also highly dubious.

Orwell himself wouldn't believe it if he were told that Obama had won a Nobel Peace Prize.

There were many terrible domestic policies as well. It was on his watch that the TBTF banks were bailed out after the 2008 crisis, creating tremendous moral hazard, and widening the wealth gap significantly. The ensuing economic policies then set the stage for where the U.S. is today.

Etc., etc., etc.
There are definitely things to criticize the Obama administration on but some of this is just wild.
Big mistakes were made in Libya and they should have known better from seeing the fallout of Bush's actions in Iraq.
"U.S. sponsored coup in Ukraine" Only if look a very limited set of things, in the dark and with one eye closed. It's at best conspiracy theory and at worst Russian propaganda.
"chose policies in the Middle East that are directly related to much of the instability in the region today" Just wow ::facepalm1::
 
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Hell, I don’t know. That’s why I went digging. That fact came from AI.
Easy enough to answer using the same method you did previously...




Have a read here:

https://factcheck.afp.com/doc.afp.com.36ZB6AD

As has been said over and over, those tariffs only apply if the US exports more than the mutually agreed upon quotas that our government and Trump negotiated in 2018. They have not met those quotas, let alone exceeded them.

Here's a key item...

"Dairy exports from the United States to Canada amounted to $1.14 billion in 2024, according to the US Department of Agriculture, nearly doubling over a decade (archived here)."

So not only are we not charging 270% on any dairy we import from the US, we imported over a $billion in US dairy last year...
 
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"U.S. sponsored coup in Ukraine" Only if look a very limited set of things, in the dark and with one eye closed. It's at best conspiracy theory and at worst Russian propaganda.
"chose policies in the Middle East that are directly related to much of the instability in the region today" Just wow

You are badly misinformed. If you'd like me to provide numerous factual sources that confirm the essence of what I wrote, I'd be happy to do so, though privately, as I don't want to derail the thread further.
 
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... Canada want to ensure they have a viable dairy industry, would not be sensible to allow the destruction of their dairy in its entirety ...

The problem as I see it is the nuance is completely ignored ...
This (the latter statement) is generally true of the cherry-picking of anecdotal tariffs that are being emphasized to justify our across-the-board proposed tariffs, which are based on trade imbalance, not tariff imbalances. Many countries have targeted tariffs in place to support/grow/protect certain industries for various reasons.

If the US were doing the same thing (targeted tariffs, and subsidies, to encourage specific industries), I don't think there would be very much criticism. And if the US is unhappy about tariffs on certain specific goods, that sounds like a good place for focused negotiation.

And if it's really all about China, I think the US would have a stronger position as part of a consortium.
 
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Easy enough to answer using the same method you did previously...




Have a read here:

https://factcheck.afp.com/doc.afp.com.36ZB6AD

As has been said over and over, those tariffs only apply if the US exports more than the mutually agreed upon quotas that our government and Trump negotiated in 2018. They have not met those quotas, let alone exceeded them.

Here's a key item...

"Dairy exports from the United States to Canada amounted to $1.14 billion in 2024, according to the US Department of Agriculture, nearly doubling over a decade (archived here)."

So not only are we not charging 270% on any dairy we import from the US, we imported over a $billion in US dairy last year...
Thanks Archer. The answer I originally received was part of a specific, but broad query. I used the following query in a different AI source than you used and received the same answer (redundancy in the AI models is a good sign).

Does Canada impose a 270% tariff on the U.S. for dairy products? What are the factors that potentially mitigate that number? Please state any sources utilized to determine your response.

I stand corrected. It was never my intent to mislead or obfuscate.
 
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I definitely agree on this, I may be communicating poorly but I think it's about messaging and not as much about defending individual accusations.

So along these lines, I didn't seem to recall Biden saying a whole heck of a lot about the defund movement very loudly. I did some brief looking and could really only find his 2022 State of the Union Address that touches on it. Did he address it much? Did he make it a major part of his action plan? One of my biggest criticisms of Biden is that he did not cheerlead his achievements in employment, the economy, foreign relations. It's almost hilarious that there is this perspective amongst the Republican Party that he was a bad president, because on paper, his administration did well. Biden himself said that he should have been more vocal about his achievements.

Can you point me at anything else where either Harris or Biden was very vocal on this particular topic in terms of messaging? And also, I think it's really worth considering, how does the Democratic Party offer consistent messaging to some of these key attacks (without being case-by-case too defensive) going forward? It's not good enough to say "they aren't fighting fair," we know that. It's literally their schtick. What's the counter?
They were asked about it quite a bit. They would couple the answer with speaking about reform and funding mental health services. That stuff doesn't make for a good sound bite so it tends not to cut thru.

I think the Democratic Party is too focused on the big tent concept and don't spend enough time speaking to their base. Assuming they will be informed about where they stand or will show up to vote because the other guy is so bad. The more you can clearly get where you stand and what you are about out there not only shores your base but makes it harder for the other side to attack you with lies
 
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They were asked about it quite a bit. They would couple the answer with speaking about reform and funding mental health services. That stuff doesn't make for a good sound bite so it tends not to cut thru.

I think the Democratic Party is too focused on the big tent concept and don't spend enough time speaking to their base. Assuming they will be informed about where they stand or will show up to vote because the other guy is so bad. The more you can clearly get where you stand and what you are about out there not only shores your base but makes it harder for the other side to attack you with lies
What and who is the democratic base?

I kinda of assumed today it is large splinter groups congealed into voting block of supporting each issue whether there is agreement on issue or not. Thus, you have the unsavory issues attributed to the entire party.

The Tip O'Neills are long gone.