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Originally about tariffs and watches ... now just political rambling

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pdxleaf
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Another perspective on tariffs:

TLDR: Remember when Japan's economy was strong? No economy is guaranteed to last and the loss of trust in the USD will lead to the destruction of the US economy, which has been accelerated by Trump's fascination with tariffs.



A brief summary that relates to our discussion

1. It's been argued that not all tariffs are bad, it's the amount of tariffs and indiscriminant application that is the problem. A smaller and more discrete application would have been better. This is false and a distraction. Even just a flat 10% is too much. Tariffs prop up failing industries and discourage innovation.

2. Many previous politicians including democrats were in favor of tariffs, not just Trump. True, but a distraction. Tariffs are popular and appealing, but this doesn't make them good policy. Why argue if a democrat agrees with a bad policy?

3. Trump doesn't really want high tariffs. It's just a tool to get people to negotiate. Not only is this not true, but it is the worst aspect of his policies. Trump has been fixated on tariffs for decades and it isn't clear that he isn't enamored with tariffs. Most importantly, his aribitrary imposition of large tariffs and sudden reversal makes the USA unreliable. Worse than a tariff is not knowing how to plan. It also means that any agreement Trump makes is not trustworthy, as the USA could rip it all up again. This gets to the important part of the interview, that the world is getting away from using the US dollar, which will have a greater negative impact than tariffs.


Screenshot_20250506_064245_Spotify.webp
 
Archer
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Ron_W Ron_W
The Ripple effect ......


data=W851bhYPRDemFvTC2y_Uisp0WTezrgXSrb_dbZensCRqj7S30OWsZ0ti43dQpWR_VX8_vbtNPhrqrsmKjndkRL8t...webp
Somehow it feels more like this...

Ripple.webp
 
Porteroso
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pdxleaf pdxleaf
Another perspective on tariffs:

TLDR: Remember when Japan's economy was strong? No economy is guaranteed to last and the loss of trust in the USD will lead to the destruction of the US economy, which has been accelerated by Trump's fascination with tariffs.



A brief summary that relates to our discussion

1. It's been argued that not all tariffs are bad, it's the amount of tariffs and indiscriminant application that is the problem. A smaller and more discrete application would have been better. This is false and a distraction. Even just a flat 10% is too much. Tariffs prop up failing industries and discourage innovation.

2. Many previous politicians including democrats were in favor of tariffs, not just Trump. True, but a distraction. Tariffs are popular and appealing, but this doesn't make them good policy. Why argue if a democrat agrees with a bad policy?

3. Trump doesn't really want high tariffs. It's just a tool to get people to negotiate. Not only is this not true, but it is the worst aspect of his policies. Trump has been fixated on tariffs for decades and it isn't clear that he isn't enamored with tariffs. Most importantly, his aribitrary imposition of large tariffs and sudden reversal makes the USA unreliable. Worse than a tariff is not knowing how to plan. It also means that any agreement Trump makes is not trustworthy, as the USA could rip it all up again. This gets to the important part of the interview, that the world is getting away from using the US dollar, which will have a greater negative impact than tariffs.


Screenshot_20250506_064245_Spotify.webp
Those are just your opinions though. His rhetoric does point to him being in absolute love with tariffs, but nobody else's rhetoric in his administration matches that. Nobody else says "the most beautiful word in the dictionary is 'tariff.'" Nobody else says tariffs will allow the US to eliminate income taxes on under $200k.

If tariffs were the end goal, there would be significant tariffs on Canada and Mexico by now, but every time there is a nice phone call, they are put off. There wouldn't be a 90 day pause on the rest of the world, and he wouldn't have said there is a way to erase tariffs.

It's pretty clear to me, and this is just my opinion, that tariffs are 100% a tool. Obviously he has to ramp up his rhetoric on them, because it doesn't work as a big stick if nobody thinks he's serious, but all the various things you mention, like the sudden reversals, him being unreliable, they all work towards nobody really knowing if he's serious or not.

What he wants is a restructuring of the global economy to the benefit of the United States. You are right that it risks devaluing the dollar, more countries exploring the idea of moving away from the dollar as their reserve currency, but the fact remains that all these countries need to do business with the US which represents 30% of the world economy. If he halfway accomplishes what he's talking about, it will be a remarkable accomplishment, and the threat of tariffs will be the only thing making it work.

I don't think the plan was good or thought through, but that doesn't mean it has to fail. It can absolutely work. We will see, won't we.
 
pdxleaf
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Porteroso Porteroso
Those are just your opinions though....

I don't think the plan was good or thought through, but that doesn't mean it has to fail. It can absolutely work. We will see, won't we.
Thanks for the reply. Yes, just my humble opinion.

Unfortunately, a bad plan poorly executed has little chance of success.
 
gatorcpa
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Porteroso Porteroso
I don't think the plan was good or thought through, but that doesn't mean it has to fail. It can absolutely work.
It depends on your definition of the plan "working". If you mean can it invigorate US manufacturing in the medium to long-term, the answer IMO is absolutely yes. However, that will come at a cost to the relative wealth of the US economy by reducing purchasing power vs. that of other nations.

The question we need to ask ourselves is do we want our economy to be efficient or self-sufficient. By efficient, I mean to do the things that we can do best and cheapest and purchase from abroad the things that other countries do best and cheapest. Pretty much the system we have been living under the last 80 years. By self-sufficient, I mean producing everything that we need here regardless of the cost and protect these industries through tariffs.

Unfortunately, I don't think we can do both. Trump and his advisors disagree with me. Time will tell who is right, although I probably won't be here to see the endgame.
gatorcpa
 
ErichPryde
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Dan S Dan S
I know very little about this episode, but none of it surprises me. Enacting regime-change (or supporting existing "friendly regimes") is a standard American tactic, pursued by Democrats and Republicans alike, in the pursuit of what appeared to be American interests at the time

And @glownyc @Tony C. I generally agree with Dan abd @pdxleaf here. The president of the United States has some responsibility for interacting with other nations via foreign policy. Sometimes those actions could be called policing or even imperialistic. I liked Obama as a President. I didn't vote against him his first term and voted for him his second. It really is not worthwhile to deny that he engaged in these sorts of actions that fall squarely under what we have established as actions that Presidents are responsible for deciding. Having mixed feelings about these sorts of actions is healthy and normal.

This current argument about whether or not it was bad or he did it is almost like jumping backwards in time several decades in political discourse. One of my biggest complaints from that period was this sort of call out of what the other guy was doing coupled with denial that "we" were doing it. It's never been helpful, and I hope we can move past it, because there is part of me that wonders just how much it has fueled "the quiet part out loud."

for me, this very much goes back to being honest about, and understanding what policies we are supporting when we vote.

BUT- what I think is more important is that most prior presidents tried to measure their actions (no matter how much you may or may not agree with those actions) constitutionally and legally, and for the most part considered how our actions impacted our allies and us as americans.
 
Archer
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Released today by Statistics Canada:

"The decrease in total exports in March 2025 also coincided with the implementation of new US tariffs on Canadian goods. Exports to the United States (-6.6%) were down significantly for the month, but this decrease was almost entirely offset by a strong increase in exports to countries other than the United States (+24.8%)."

As I said a while back, US tariffs will drive trade deals, but not necessarily with the US. The US economy accounts for about 25% of global GDP, so there's a whole rest of the world out there that countries can deal with.
 
ErichPryde
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CBM1590 CBM1590
Not at all, but I’ve duly noted that the responses to my honest jaunt down the internets looking for unbiased info (and posting on here) have included the type of responses Ive come to expect….(usually) healthy discourse with the subtle jabs.

So, I took a bit of a mental break from this thread yesterday afternoon and worked on my garden quite a bit. It was nice break, but I did want to come back and clarify that my blunt response was not meant to be hostile.

Gosh, it is coming out beautifully! Can't wait for my roses to bloom this year, they are loaded with buds. The butterfly bushes are looking healthy, all of my rhodies are starting to open up, it's just beautiful and so enjoyable to get outside in the sun with all the color. So many things in bloom- bleeding hearts, camas, columbine, tree peonies, all sorts of annuals, irises- the time of year is unbelievable in the Pacific Northwest.

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Evitzee
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Carney and Trump have met at the WH, they are pals now. Canada is not for sale! The bedwetters can stand down.
 
Wlcutter
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ErichPryde ErichPryde
BUT- what I think is more important is that most prior presidents tried to measure their actions (no matter how much you may or may not agree with those actions) constitutionally and legally, and for the most part considered how our actions impacted our allies and us as americans.

This is an essential and missing component when we discuss the current administraton. To my knowledge, no administration has ever so blatantly dismissed a huge chunk of ordinary Americans as losers, enemies, inessential, fools, etc. Nixon at his most toxic came close, but mostly on secret tapes, and not (to my knowledge, happy to be corrected) as public policy. Hillary Clinton infamously used 'basket of deplorables' to describe some folks attracted to Trump, but, again, that was as a candidate, and it's inconceivable, had she been elected, she'd've had the political insouciance or temerity to claim she was governing in a way to punish those folks.

The presidents I've lived with have, till now, always governed to best serve all Americans, and have (generally, in public and in policy) defended that those who disagreed with them could say so. That is no longer the case, and the current administration is almost delightedly antagonistic toward those who disagree with them.
 
YY77
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Wlcutter Wlcutter
The presidents I've lived with have, till now, always governed to best serve all Americans, and have (generally, in public and in policy) defended that those who disagreed with them could say so. That is no longer the case, and the current administration is almost delightedly antagonistic toward those who disagree with them.
I don't think there's ever a president who said he would "be a dictator only on day 1", that says a lot.
 
Archer
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Evitzee Evitzee
Carney and Trump have met at the WH, they are pals now. Canada is not for sale! The bedwetters can stand down.
Carney was able to put it in terms that Donald the Developer could understand. Certain properties are not for sale, like the place they are sitting in, Buckingham Palace, and all of Canada. Hopefully Trump got the message.

On the trade front, Trump contradicted himself so many times it's hard to know what the hell he's thinking...
 
ErichPryde
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Evitzee Evitzee
Carney and Trump have met at the WH, they are pals now. Canada is not for sale! The bedwetters can stand down.

You're right, anyone focused solely on the statements about Canada being for sale is probably wetting the bed. I'm sure you agree there's definitely a lot more that merits discussion than just that topic!
 
Vercingetorix
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Archer Archer
it's hard to know what the hell he's thinking...
That is the problem with the whole world. He is not thinking. He is trying to relive the past, when he was a child.
Edited:
 
Walrus
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This thread is a good example of the Overton window.
 
Dan S
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Walrus Walrus
This thread is a good example of the Overton window.
In that case, the window spans totalitarianism to defunding the police, so I'm not sure what's outside the window. Of course, virtually every topic is a Rorschach test these days.
 
ErichPryde
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Walrus Walrus
This thread is a good example of the Overton window.

I can't exactly agree but I see what you're saying. The Overton window largely refers to the policies that politicians can get away with and still be within the "acceptability range." Trump's blatant, undeniable, and obvious usurpation of the judicial branch of our government and defiance of the Constitution is representative of the current width of the Overton window. With any luck the discourse surrounding that causes it to snap closed a bit.
 
Walrus
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ErichPryde ErichPryde
I can't exactly agree but I see what you're saying. The Overton window largely refers to the policies that politicians can get away with and still be within the "acceptability range." Trump's blatant, undeniable, and obvious usurpation of the judicial branch of our government and defiance of the Constitution is representative of the current width of the Overton window. With any luck the discourse surrounding that causes it to snap closed a bit.
I timed that on my chrono you guys took less time to respond to my one sentence than expected. Please don’t get this thread shut down it was one sentence easy to let go.
 
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