Just thinking on-line: anyone shorting their watches?

Donn Chambers

Guess we’ll see in a few years. I recall an interview with an economist about buying gold on NPR years ago. He argued that the price for an ounce of gold over the last several hundred years was essentially the cost to buy a high quality suit of the period, excluding the times when panic and speculation skewed the price. Looking at the historic price fluctuations, I think he was right. So it essentially kept up with inflation.

No country’s currency is currently tied to gold, so it’s value is a lot harder to justify, IMO. I think a lot of it is psychological (I.e., gold used to be valuable) and selling it is not as easy as you might think. If SHTF, who would pay you for your gold (or watches, for that matter) anyway, and what would they pay you with? If you really expect an economic collapse, stock up on real trade goods that people will want— liquor, chocolate, ammo, guns, etc.

P. S. I may be a little biased here. My dad bet on gold and silver going up in the 1980s and bought near the peak. Luckily, he only bought a few
krugerrands and silver bars, but when he eventually sold them, it was a loss of several thousand dollars. If only he’d spent the same amount on Rolex Submariners and Daytonas....

Gruesome

Good point mentioning options. If you think watches are going down and gold is going up, then this kind of a bet is much easier done with options.

janice&fred

CT is the place for vintage watches! I'm up '95 on the shoreline north of New Haven. Walrus is out in some hillbilly one horse town. 😁

Dan S

It looks like a $4,000 call option for December 2021 is about $14. So if $5k/oz is a conservative estimate for the price before the end of 2021, then someone could get rich pretty easily.

Walrus

If you are really into it why the hell not. Analysts and predictions can be pretty spotty. In a way you want to time two different things and make it work out. Not saying it can’t happen it’s just whenever I’ve actually tried to time things in a shorter term horizon it’s when I’ve performed poorly. I do have friends who are big into options and some have made it work pretty well. Gold makes me a little nervous with the possibility of manipulation. Be it the government wanting to manipulate its price so people don’t see gold hit 5k and panic thinking the end is coming or traders doing so. Look where golds prices were in the 70’s. Look how much value it has lost. I am not saying manipulation is taking place it could just be one of those theories floating around. In the end it’s your watches and your money, I’ll hope for both of us gold hits 100k next month.

Walrus

If you are really into it why the hell not. Analysts and predictions can be pretty spotty. In a way you want to time two different things and make it work out. Not saying it can’t happen it’s just whenever I’ve actually tried to time things in a shorter term horizon it’s when I’ve performed poorly. I do have friends who are big into options and some have made it work pretty well. Gold makes me a little nervous with the possibility of manipulation. Be it the government wanting to manipulate its price so people don’t see gold hit 5k and panic thinking the end is coming or traders doing so. Look where golds prices were in the 70’s. Look how much value it has lost. I am not saying manipulation is taking place it could just be one of those theories floating around. In the end it’s your watches and your money, I’ll hope for both of us gold hits 100k next month.

Walrus

If you are really into it why the hell not. Analysts and predictions can be pretty spotty. In a way you want to time two different things and make it work out. Not saying it can’t happen it’s just whenever I’ve actually tried to time things in a shorter term horizon it’s when I’ve performed poorly. I do have friends who are big into options and some have made it work pretty well. Gold makes me a little nervous with the possibility of manipulation. Be it the government wanting to manipulate its price so people don’t see gold hit 5k and panic thinking the end is coming or traders doing so. Look where golds prices were in the 70’s. Look how much value it has lost. I am not saying manipulation is taking place it could just be one of those theories floating around. In the end it’s your watches and your money, I’ll hope for both of us gold hits 100k next month.

Dan S

The members of this forum aren't idiots, so citing some "predictions" based on absurd assumptions only makes you appear to be either a fringe conspiracy theorist or a troll.

But be my guest. Sell your watches and buy gold if it makes you happy. More power to you.

Gruesome

Assuming you are in a financial situation where you were able to afford buying multi-$k watches, is it really worth your time shifting around a few thousand dollars in investments, on the way maybe losing watches you might have an emotional attachment to?
Or, asking the other way around: if making a few thousand dollars in a highly speculative deal like this makes a difference to your financial well being, should you really:
a) have any money in these expensive watches?
b) engage in speculative investments?

Food for thought.

Dan S

The members of this forum aren't idiots, so citing some "predictions" based on absurd assumptions only makes you appear to be either a fringe conspiracy theorist or a troll.

But be my guest. Sell your watches and buy gold if it makes you happy. More power to you.

Dan S

The members of this forum aren't idiots, so citing some "predictions" based on absurd assumptions only makes you appear to be either a fringe conspiracy theorist or a troll.

But be my guest. Sell your watches and buy gold if it makes you happy. More power to you.

Gruesome

Assuming you are in a financial situation where you were able to afford buying multi-$k watches, is it really worth your time shifting around a few thousand dollars in investments, on the way maybe losing watches you might have an emotional attachment to?
Or, asking the other way around: if making a few thousand dollars in a highly speculative deal like this makes a difference to your financial well being, should you really:
a) have any money in these expensive watches?
b) engage in speculative investments?

Food for thought.

janice&fred

Yea take that! Hummmph! 🙄

Dan S

The members of this forum aren't idiots, so citing some "predictions" based on absurd assumptions only makes you appear to be either a fringe conspiracy theorist or a troll.

But be my guest. Sell your watches and buy gold if it makes you happy. More power to you.

Dan S

Sounds like canned food and ammunition might be your best bet.

Walrus

Well it seems you put a two year time frame on it. In two years do I think purchasing power will take such a hit. Jpow did say he is prepared to let inflation rise some more but I’m behind right now I need to read up on exactly what he said. A lot can happen in two years but what if this vaccine I’m hearing about actually comes through prior to years end. It will change sentiment, won’t make everything great instantly. It seems two years is both a very short time and a long time right now. Tbh I only got into metals a few years ago, I saw it move sideways for quite awhile. I also don’t have that much anyway just wanted to diversify. I’m not a metal expert I usually just study and read up on things till I feel relatively comfortable knowing full well it could all go to poo anytime

Walrus

Well it seems you put a two year time frame on it. In two years do I think purchasing power will take such a hit. Jpow did say he is prepared to let inflation rise some more but I’m behind right now I need to read up on exactly what he said. A lot can happen in two years but what if this vaccine I’m hearing about actually comes through prior to years end. It will change sentiment, won’t make everything great instantly. It seems two years is both a very short time and a long time right now. Tbh I only got into metals a few years ago, I saw it move sideways for quite awhile. I also don’t have that much anyway just wanted to diversify. I’m not a metal expert I usually just study and read up on things till I feel relatively comfortable knowing full well it could all go to poo anytime

kaapstadflaneur

My grandmother always told me to keep 10% of my assets in gold coins, bourbon, and guns/ammunition. She practiced what she preached and kept a locked safe full of Krugerrands, Maker's Mark, and boxes of ammo. That said, she lived quite comfortably off the other 90% of her assets invested in real estate and mutual funds...

As someone involved in the mining/metals space, I want to point out the gold, like all other commodities, goes through boom/bust cycles. With gold at US$ 2000/oz, more gold supply is coming online as higher-cost producers re-enter the market as they can now make a profit with higher gold spot prices. It would greatly surprise me to see US$ 3000/oz gold, especially if there is an effective COVID vaccine in the coming 6 months.

Philip Loftus

That is an extremely interesting and bullish point about higher cost producers re entering the market. Would you agree that these producers see cracks appearing in the gold paper market?

kaapstadflaneur

The gold paper market and the price of gold are related but not the same. Without getting way down into the weeds on this issue, high gold prices lead to high-cost gold producers re-starting mines that were idle, as well as existing gold producers that tapping lower-grade ore bodies that were previously uneconomic to mine. That has already happened in South Africa where I live. Plus large amounts scrap gold are going into the smelter around the world to be recycled. High gold prices mean that ever more supply will emerge until demand is satisfied and prices begin to level off again. My personal view is that gold may have a bit more room to run in the current bull market, but it won't reach US$ 3000. Supply is already catching up. There will be a leveling off and likely a slow decline once the world figures out how to deal with COVID.

kaapstadflaneur

The gold paper market and the price of gold are related but not the same. Without getting way down into the weeds on this issue, high gold prices lead to high-cost gold producers re-starting mines that were idle, as well as existing gold producers that tapping lower-grade ore bodies that were previously uneconomic to mine. That has already happened in South Africa where I live. Plus large amounts scrap gold are going into the smelter around the world to be recycled. High gold prices mean that ever more supply will emerge until demand is satisfied and prices begin to level off again. My personal view is that gold may have a bit more room to run in the current bull market, but it won't reach US$ 3000. Supply is already catching up. There will be a leveling off and likely a slow decline once the world figures out how to deal with COVID.