Just thinking on-line: anyone shorting their watches?

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Production cost of gold is ~$1300/oz. When it was at 1500 it was a bargain. Still not so bad at $2k considering the current situation. I fully expected it to be $3000+ by now.

Man fears time but time fears the Pyramids.

Haha! Me too. We may yet see it in the next 2 m. I'd actually be happy with 2100 or 2200 by year's end.
 
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Gold is currently close to the all time high price, trading near $1800 an ounce. It has not reached $5000 an ounce ever in the last 100 years. The peak price was about $2200 in 1980. Accounting for inflation, that is about $6600 in today’s dollars. If you had done this in 1980 and sold it the gold today, you would not have even matched inflation and lost value.

Point is, I seriously doubt gold will shoot up to $5k an ounce in your lifetime. It is more likely to decrease in value or just keep up with inflation. And you have given up your two watches to do it. Looks like a loss to be all around.

Man fears time but time fears the Pyramids

Gold hit it's all time high around $2069 early Aug this year. Weirdly it's almost gone from a way to retain purchasing power to a speculation. 5 k is conservative.

You are right about giving up 2 watches for a year being hard though. However each week or month your budget would be going up for the repurchases.
Edited:
 
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You repurchase yr watches and thereby repay the loan you took to buy the gold.
This is a very inefficient way to fund your watch purchase.
 
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This is a very inefficient way to fund your watch purchase.
Well, I dunno, is it? You've got yr 2 watches back again plus however many ounces as profit. I'd sleep ok.
 
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There doesn't appear to be any clear evidence which way valuations will go in the next 10 years or so.

The governments have been borrowing and printed more money like crazy, so one school of thought is this will lead to a high level of artificial inflation (printed money will be worth less). This will artificially raise the price of things like gold and watches, but you might not get more "buying power" for them.

The other completely-opposite thought is we are on the verge of an economic collapse and we'll all be in soup lines soon. If that is the case, then "cash is king" and things like watches will go way down in price.

No telling what the future holds, so, like always, live life to the fullest and enjoy things like watches along the way.
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Man fears time but time fears the Pyramids.

Would cash be king though? Are we heading for a 'wheelbarrow moment'?
Another scenario would be watch prices skyrocket.
 
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Vintage watches are selling well now, so if you think of them as investments, it's probably not a bad time to take some profits. I guess we all have our own thoughts about where we would put the profits.

5 k is conservative.

Silly statement.
 
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It did it sort of by accident. I had sold two watches in February to finance the purchase of a new watch. But then the pandemic started and markets crashed. So instead I invested the money and already have profits of approximately 35% ::psy::

Man fears time but time fears the Pyramids

Hahaha. There's a moral there somewhere if I could just work out what it is.
 
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Vintage watches are selling well now, so if you think of them as investments, it's probably not a bad time to take some profits. I guess we all have our own thoughts about where we would put the profits.



Silly statement.

Short term predictions range from 2k +(just by year's end) through 5 k in 2021 and on up to 10k, 20k, even 100k per ounce depending on if & how many countries adopt a gold backed digital currency and the gold percentage required, some say 40 pct.
So as you can see now the 5 k prediction is conservative.
 
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Assuming you are in a financial situation where you were able to afford buying multi-$k watches, is it really worth your time shifting around a few thousand dollars in investments, on the way maybe losing watches you might have an emotional attachment to?
Or, asking the other way around: if making a few thousand dollars in a highly speculative deal like this makes a difference to your financial well being, should you really:
a) have any money in these expensive watches?
b) engage in speculative investments?

Food for thought.
 
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Man fears time but time fears the Pyramids

Gold hit it's all time high around $2069 early Aug this year. Weirdly it's almost gone from a way to retain purchasing power to a speculation. 5 k is conservative.
Short term predictions range from 2k +(just by year's end) through 5 k in 2021 and on up to 10k, 20k, even 100k per ounce depending on if & how many countries adopt a gold backed digital currency and the gold percentage required, some say 40 pct.
So as you can see now the 5 k prediction is conservative.

The members of this forum aren't idiots, so citing some "predictions" based on absurd assumptions only makes you appear to be either a fringe conspiracy theorist or a troll.

But be my guest. Sell your watches and buy gold if it makes you happy. More power to you.
 
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If you are really into it why the hell not. Analysts and predictions can be pretty spotty. In a way you want to time two different things and make it work out. Not saying it can’t happen it’s just whenever I’ve actually tried to time things in a shorter term horizon it’s when I’ve performed poorly. I do have friends who are big into options and some have made it work pretty well. Gold makes me a little nervous with the possibility of manipulation. Be it the government wanting to manipulate its price so people don’t see gold hit 5k and panic thinking the end is coming or traders doing so. Look where golds prices were in the 70’s. Look how much value it has lost. I am not saying manipulation is taking place it could just be one of those theories floating around. In the end it’s your watches and your money, I’ll hope for both of us gold hits 100k next month.
 
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Good point mentioning options. If you think watches are going down and gold is going up, then this kind of a bet is much easier done with options.
 
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The members of this forum aren't idiots, so citing some "predictions" based on absurd assumptions only makes you appear to be either a fringe conspiracy theorist or a troll.

But be my guest. Sell your watches and buy gold if it makes you happy. More power to you.

Yea take that! Hummmph! 🙄
 
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Man fears time but time fears the Pyramids

Gold hit it's all time high around $2069 early Aug this year. Weirdly it's almost gone from a way to retain purchasing power to a speculation. 5 k is conservative.....

Guess we’ll see in a few years. I recall an interview with an economist about buying gold on NPR years ago. He argued that the price for an ounce of gold over the last several hundred years was essentially the cost to buy a high quality suit of the period, excluding the times when panic and speculation skewed the price. Looking at the historic price fluctuations, I think he was right. So it essentially kept up with inflation.

No country’s currency is currently tied to gold, so it’s value is a lot harder to justify, IMO. I think a lot of it is psychological (I.e., gold used to be valuable) and selling it is not as easy as you might think. If SHTF, who would pay you for your gold (or watches, for that matter) anyway, and what would they pay you with? If you really expect an economic collapse, stock up on real trade goods that people will want— liquor, chocolate, ammo, guns, etc.

P. S. I may be a little biased here. My dad bet on gold and silver going up in the 1980s and bought near the peak. Luckily, he only bought a few
krugerrands and silver bars, but when he eventually sold them, it was a loss of several thousand dollars. If only he’d spent the same amount on Rolex Submariners and Daytonas....
 
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It looks like a $4,000 call option for December 2021 is about $14. So if $5k/oz is a conservative estimate for the price before the end of 2021, then someone could get rich pretty easily.
 
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Drunk-posting again, Fred?

Not me maybe you? I'm just enjoying how pleasant and respectful these conversations can be. 😁