I come from a family of gold bugs (grandfather and uncles were goldsmiths), and there were many attempts to make a lot of money on gold. Grandpa also got creamed in the 80s at the top - he was good at jewelry but terrible at investing. My dad, on the other hand, hates investing but bought a lot of gold at $400/oz about 15 years ago and sold at $1600 and it's given him a comfortable retirement. I guess my point is that gold is a little bit random and doesn't totally follow market logic.
When I want to go blingy I usually wear this, an LE
Investing in gold still should still follow the rule of “Buy low, sell high” though. Your grandpa and my dad did not follow this advise and bought too late, but your dad did and did well. That was the point of my original reply - anyone thinking of buying gold today at $2k an ounce and thinking it will go to $5k in any reasonable period is betting against the history of gold trends. Now is the time to sell gold that was bought at a cheaper price (or scrap old jewelry), not buy it.
Well, I dunno, is it? You've got yr 2 watches back again plus however many ounces as profit. I'd sleep ok.
Has your outlook on this strategy changed at all?
Interesting that I was speaking with someone yesterday who had read some book arguing that gold would hit $10k an ounce, and countries will be looking to go back to the gold standard in the future...
Good to see this thread still going, and not any further from its destination than before. Meanwhile, watch prices have been going up. I hope Philip didn't lose his Omegas. Or worse, shortselling Omegas to finance his pile of gold!? Although, now that I wrote it, it seems like a completely valid hedge fund strategy....
But the upside is still there. How would everyone have reacted to the idea of buying bitcoin?
Short term predictions range from 2k +(just by year's end) through 5 k in 2021 and on up to 10k, 20k, even 100k per ounce depending on if & how many countries adopt a gold backed digital currency and the gold percentage required, some say 40 pct.
So as you can see now the 5 k prediction is conservative.
Love reading posts a few years back by the investment gurus
So near mid 2023 and gold is just under $2k
I did the math. When the OP posted in September 2020, gold was $1,943 per ounce. Today, it's $1,994 per ounce. That's a 2.6% increase.
I'm cherry-picking a bit, but: let's say you owned a Rolex "Hulk". Chrono24 estimates it was worth around $19K in late 2020, and around $22K today. That's a ~15% increase. This would have been a losing bet for the OP.
He'd have made 17% + dividends if he tossed the money into the S&P 500. So, the bet would have paid off a little if he'd been into index funds instead of gold.
For a few years now I got the habit of buying 18k gold pocket watches that were otherwise condemned to be scrapped for their gold value, almost nobody wants those things anymore. I only bought nice repairable things, that I did not want to end up destroyed. It turns out it may not be a bad strategy...
