It is bursting, right?

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vitriol

·Nov 20, 2019

I was surfing the Rolexes in chrono24 and noticed the prices are not quite as I expected.
Meaning, the prices are lower. I was looking at submariner in particular, but I played with chrono24 charts for few other models, then put them alltogether and it looks like this.

Those are pre-owned watches with box and papers.

So, now is it a good time to buy Rolex or it isn't ?

 

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duc

·Nov 20, 2019

Based on what you have here, it looks a little better than earlier in the year. Based on your graph, it might be better to wait a little while and see.

 

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BDHD

·Nov 20, 2019

vitriol

I was surfing the Rolexes in chrono24 and noticed the prices are not quite as I expected.
Meaning, the prices are lower. I was looking at submariner in particular, but I played with chrono24 charts for few other models, then put them alltogether and it looks like this.

Those are pre-owned watches with box and papers.

So, now is it a good time to buy Rolex or it isn't ?

Great information. I would say buy now if you feel like buying. Is impossible to estimate what is going to happen

 

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MCC

·Nov 20, 2019

Still over MRSP the used prices have a way to fall before you could regard them as a bargain.

I think some dealers have been getting greedy ramping up the prices too frequently.

 

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BlackTalon

·Nov 20, 2019·This Space for Rent

are these asking prices or sold prices?

There are dips in the chart bigger then the current dip, but the upward trend continued shortly thereafter. Definitely not enough of a downward trend yet to establish this as a bursting bubble.

 

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vitriol

·Nov 20, 2019

This is "estimated worth" as given by chrono24, so asking prices, prices for which the watch was enlisted I guess.

 

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scv55

·Nov 20, 2019

I think supply is definitely catching up, you can see it in resellers stock all throughout the internet. I remember seeing the jubilee Batman at $20K, now they're not even asking $15....

 

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absoluteczech

·Nov 20, 2019

Yea I have a friend that is reseller he's still advertising his BRLN for the average asking price but says if someone offers him 13-14 he'll take it immediately.

People have to realize there arent actually THAT many people wanting to pay almost 2x MSRP for these watches, regardless of asking price.

 

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Davidt

·Nov 20, 2019

Adrian's taking a bit of hammer in the comments for this video as the bubble clearly hasn't yet 'burst', but hopefully the gradual reduction of prices at resellers is the start...

 

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mrs_LA

·Nov 20, 2019

Dealers get too greedy, and stock up on watches with inflated prices. I think it's a fantastic sign for the market to correct.

 

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watch3s

·Nov 20, 2019

deflating a bit finally

 

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Lotus_Eater8815

·Nov 20, 2019

Davidt

Adrian's taking a bit of hammer in the comments for this video as the bubble clearly hasn't yet 'burst', but hopefully the gradual reduction of prices at resellers is the start...

I remember I was in the process of saving up for an 114270 over a year ago but when he raved about it on his channel I saw the prices gradually shooting up. I think its funny how youtubers (and watch review sites/blogs) can say that prices are going down when some of them contributed to the rise in prices in the first place.

 

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Walrus

·Nov 20, 2019

If you guys figure out how to time the market please shoot me a pm thanks

 

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Dan S

·Nov 20, 2019

Walrus

If you guys figure out how to time the market please shoot me a pm thanks

Buy when you see blood in the streets.

 

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mrs_LA

·Nov 20, 2019

Davidt

Adrian's taking a bit of hammer in the comments for this video as the bubble clearly hasn't yet 'burst', but hopefully the gradual reduction of prices at resellers is the start...

I just caught on to the video and I don't think it's fair to generalize the Rolex bubble to have burst, honestly. For the complete bubble to burst, every model must be affected. The basis of this bubble, according to B&J are on highly inflated watches such as the Batman, and Pepsi references - these sell for nearly double their retail price. The higher the rise, the higher the fall. He even starts with the no date Submariner, which still commands a slight premium over retail. This has not changed much. Not enough to make the 'bubble' pop. Demand is still there, surely.

 

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Walrus

·Nov 20, 2019

He is going by a very sample as well. It may very well mean a change is taking place but don’t start talking about bubbles bursting until you have a larger picture. Not to compare bitcoin to watches but I’ve seen the bitcoin bubble burst 380 times since I bought it and each time it was declared dead only to bounce back. This will be interesting to follow it would be interesting to hear perspectives from the resellers about their recent experiences.

 

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w154

·Nov 21, 2019

Here was a big sale on watchfinder apparently. I wonder if they list on c24 and that caused the step.

https://www.watchfinder.co.uk/promo/rolex-sale

 

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mrs_LA

·Nov 21, 2019

With outrageous prices on Watchfinder, it’s no wonder they aren’t selling. Even their heavily discounted prices are still significantly more expensive than private watch sales.

 

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absoluteczech

·Nov 21, 2019

when you can order one at MSRP and not wait 1+ yr then ill say the bubble has burst

 

S

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stuart70

·Nov 21, 2019

I had a chat to an AD and he said that they were still not getting product through and thought that it was unlikely to change in the short term. That being said may be the market is just getting wise. Blancpain fifty fathoms is cheaper than than a Rolex sub- who would have thought?