I think this is quite nice on Ebay 105012

M'Bob · Feb 2, 2020

I wonder if the so-called "softening" could also be related to a once-hot market causing drawers to be emptied, thus the market got tipped with a greater supply.

And with that greater supply (and aside from all the legitimate points made earlier about the price/condition relationship), I think there is another effect of having more examples to choose from, and it's something William talks about, and I don't think it gets enough attention: does the particular watch have that elusive quality that makes you want to own it? Often, this is not quantifiable, and more visceral/emotional.

Unless a watch is mint, there is some combination of wear that speaks to different buyers. People tolerate their patina in different areas. Some love a perfect dial and bezel, but don't mind some case dings; some lust after a crisp case, but don't mind moldy luminous and a barely-readable case back. The point: more examples allow us to be pickier buyers, waiting for just that right piece. And if it's not right, it will not induce the same buying panic that happens when the market is hot.

kov · Feb 3, 2020

I think we have a very good example of what's being discussed here : https://omegaforums.net/threads/fam...pical-brown-dial-final-reduction.98852/page-2

Two years ago, this watch was a hottie, here. Real Moonwatch (reference), brown dial, provenance, known and appreciated/trusted member selling. Collectors' dream combination, à priori, but it's still here.

I am not intending to comment on the listing by quoting it as an example but I believe this to be a good food for thoughts on what's driving several thousands worth spendings on watches, nowadays, here. Would this watch sell on eBay for the asking? My take on that is yes, almost instantly, by somebody who still makes his buying decisions based on different criteria and eBay gathers lots of those buyers.

Thommas · Feb 3, 2020

kov
I think we have a very good example of what's being discussed here : https://omegaforums.net/threads/fam...pical-brown-dial-final-reduction.98852/page-2

Two years ago, this watch was a hottie, here. Real Moonwatch (reference), brown dial, provenance, known and appreciated/trusted member selling. Collectors' dream combination, à priori, but it's still here.

I am not intending to comment on the listing by quoting it as an example but I believe this to be a good food for thoughts on what's driving several thousands worth spendings on watches, nowadays, here. Would this watch sell on eBay for the asking? My take on that is yes, almost instantly, by somebody who still makes his buying decisions based on different criteria and eBay gathers lots of those buyers.

I think the issue with this particular example is that it's still priced a bit high, given condition and the fact it's sold without a bracelet. At least in today's market. I understand the appeal of the brown dial and known provenance, but in my option there are just better buys out there for less money. For instance the watch pointed out by the OP at the beginning of this thread just seemed in better overall condition, and it sold for less.

I was in the market for a good/non-safe queen 321 Speedy for a few months and finally settled for one that was the right combination of condition, price and authenticity. Still, had I not yet found mine and had £10k, I would be seeking out a cleaner example with a bracelet.

MSNWatch · Feb 3, 2020

There are a lot of factors that affect vintage watch pricing - the economy, supply and demand and even black swan events like this ongoing Coronavirus crisis. The best protection you have to preserve your vintage omega investment is to purchase a triple C watch (condition, condition, condition).

M'Bob · Feb 3, 2020

Let's look again at this piece relative to the "softening Speedmaster market" issue.

This fine watch was offered by Paul in May of 2019 for $21,250 USD, and grabbed up by @Mad Dog.

https://omegaforums.net/threads/omega-speedmaster-105-003-1964.94396/#post-1231356

I remember thinking that it was a fair market price at the time, and I would have bought it had our canine friend passed.

So with our now "soft" market, has the price of this stayed the same? Would it sit without a buyer? I don't think so. I believe it would be reasonable at $25-27 USD, and would find a buyer without much delay.

What, then, do we make of all this? I certainly don't have the answers, but here are some questions that come to mind: Maybe some aspects of the Speedy market are soft, while others are still robust? In other words, could the straight-lug market still be mostly strong, whereas with the twisted-lug models, perhaps only the choicest examples are bringing the top prices? Or maybe just the mint pieces across the whole market are inspiring interest. On the other hand, maybe the piece above was just severely underpriced from the outset, skewing my entire thesis...

Kringkily · Feb 3, 2020

I dont know if the market is softening. All the top top condition pieces still selling relatively easy from my experience. I think top buyers are demanding top condition. The watch in question had weird dial discoloration, markers had oxidation discoloration and the bezel has some wear to it.

Possibly sold higher earlier last year but personally I think it’s just the FOMO buyers are gone and the remaining collectors are pickier.

Dan S · Feb 3, 2020

M'Bob
This fine watch was offered by Paul in May of 2019 for $21,250 USD ...

So with our now "soft" market, has the price of this stayed the same? Would it sit without a buyer? I don't think so. I believe it would be reasonable at $25-27 USD, and would find a buyer without much delay.

Wow, you think the value has increased by 20%+ since May? I'm not getting into this debate about softening, because I think it's more nuanced than that, but I'm not sure prices have increased that much, even for nice examples.

M'Bob · Feb 3, 2020

Dan S
Wow, you think the value has increased by 20%+ since May? I'm not getting into this debate about softening, because I think it's more nuanced than that, but I'm not sure prices have increased that much, even for nice examples.

So, you don't think this example would command $25K now? I don't follow pricing as closely as some, but I think William's site is a good one for this. And I think this watch is probably in his "very good " catagory, plus box, so yes, $25-$27,000. Maybe more. Just referring to this watch, by the way, not the whole market, as noted.

Why not share your "nuanced" take on the market - would enjoy hearing your perspectives.

Dan S · Feb 3, 2020

M'Bob
So, you don't think this example would command $25K now? I don't follow pricing as closely as some, but I think William's site is a good one for this. And I think this watch is probably in his "very good " catagory, plus box, so yes, $25-$27,000. Maybe more. Just referring to this watch, by the way, not the whole market, as noted.

Why not share your "nuanced" take on the market - would enjoy hearing your perspectives.

My opinion is no better than anyone else's and less informed than many, but as a broad generalization, my sense is that top notch pieces are generally holding their value, and average examples are bringing modestly lower prices.

By the way, I feel that I'm seeing a similar pattern across the mid-to-high end of the vintage market as a whole, not just with Speedmasters. Although there are a few particular references that soared too high and are now coming down to earth, even for the best examples.

Hopefully this post will not anger my dealer friends. 😉

JwRosenthal · Feb 3, 2020

Dan S
My opinion is no better than anyone else's and less informed than many, but as a broad generalization, my sense is that top notch pieces are generally holding their value, and average examples are bringing modestly lower prices.

By the way, I feel that I'm seeing a similar pattern across the mid-to-high end of the vintage market as a whole, not just with Speedmasters. Although there are a few particular references that soared too high and are now coming down to earth, even for the best examples.

Hopefully this post will not anger my dealer friends. 😉

I think the dealers are realists and know that markets are fickle and elastic. It’s the speculators that get ruffled when you tell them their recent $50k watch (which went strait into a safe) is dropping in value.

djmusicman · Feb 3, 2020

M'Bob
https://omegaforums.net/threads/omega-speedmaster-105-003-1964.94396/#post-1231356

Nice ones will always bring top money. Interesting to note that this one had an added display back and no bevel on the lugs. Was this sale post the eureka moment for the design team at Omega for the new Ed White 321.

harrymai86 · Feb 4, 2020

djmusicman
Nice ones will always bring top money. Interesting to note that this one had an added display back and no bevel on the lugs. Was this sale post the eureka moment for the design team at Omega for the new Ed White 321.

-64 ref case has no bevel on lug I suppose.

There is always a market segment where buyers with so much money, willing to buy the best examples without worrying whether their prices are few thousands dollars higher than market. Then dealers and auction house come in to fill in that need.

I think this is quite nice on Ebay 105012

M'Bob

kov

Thommas

MSNWatch

M'Bob

Kringkily

Dan S

M'Bob

Dan S

JwRosenthal

djmusicman

harrymai86

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