Hodinkee Bump? - Compax 12324

mr.kaplan · Mar 19, 2016

I didn't want to sound like a conspiracy theorist, just ironic.
Anyway the fact that the auction houses sometimes agree with dealers to increase the prices of some watches or brand (of course following some market trend that already exist) it's not a secret.
I am not talking about any dealer in particular or about this specific case, but generally what I see is that there are a lot of dealers who are selling UG to new markets (such as China or UAE) for twice (or more) what they paid for them, and then they are buying PP or vintage Rolex (that will maintain their value and increase without any kind of bubble).

Larry S · Mar 19, 2016

That ..... Sounds plausible And credible. Someone must be pumping up the UG brand. A week does not go by without the major blogs featuring some drool worthy UG. That's how I found my Tri. Patek is already out of control expensive and Rolex ..... Ugh.... What a minefield! They confirm the strong pull a top brand can have on vintage prices however. Arguably two of the worlds most valuable brands.

Larry S · Mar 19, 2016

Swimming in new cash. Same with Scotch.

LouS · Mar 20, 2016

Larry S
Swimming in new cash. Same with Scotch.

The Scotch are spending freely? The end is near!

Larry S · Mar 20, 2016

Ha ha. Price of Single Malt is through the roof. Asia consumption.

jordn · Mar 20, 2016

10H10
Hi Kaplan,

You are right, it's a bubble, it is time for me to sell all my U.G. but I must get at least the price that I pa

dibs! 😁

mr.kaplan · Mar 20, 2016

As a UG collector I hope that my 2x price theory it's not self-fulfilling prophecy, because even if I can sell my UG for twice then it will be hard to buy again UG.😀
What I mean it's a lot of dealer now sell UG for twice what they paid for but then they don't buy back UG.
When prices increase so fast but people don't trust to buy back at the new value it smells like bubble.
I know it also may be a normal market trend but when I see a UG 40's square pushers Compur sell for more then a 50's VC chronograph I have the impression someone is raising the stakes.
Or maybe, like once happened with manual winding Daytona , we just didn't notice UG were so valuable.
Anyway, 10H10 if you want to sell some UG I am always interested, bubble or not.😉

Severin · Mar 20, 2016

(I am a vulture too)

jordn · Mar 20, 2016

10H10
Ok, sounds cool, but what is a VC ? (sorry if I don't know).

vacheron constantin

(Photo courtesy of Bexsonn.com)

jordn · Mar 20, 2016

10H10
Still I don't know where these "full of cash" buyers are... 😕

mr.kaplan
I am not talking about any dealer in particular or about this specific case, but generally what I see is that there are a lot of dealers who are selling UG to new markets (such as China or UAE)

I'm not entirely sure where this discussion is going as I see no evidence of certain markets willing to shell out more for UG watches than others at least as it stands now. I'd like to be enlightened if I'm wrong about that. It is no surprise to anyone that the sudden popularity of the 60's UG's have pushed all of their watches to new price brackets, but I can speak from experience that certain 40's chronos, the Universalone and oversize Compurs in particular, have always been favored by the European - Italy and Switzerland, more specifically - markets. I first started collecting these watches several years ago during a work visit to Italy and I was quoted an asking price of 1800 euros for a Polerouter Date! Because of our friend Ben Clymer's penchant for these watches, we of the western hemisphere (and partly in the far east) have just recently caught up to them. A lot of the high end collectors in the Middle east and Eastern Asian countries generally couldn't care less about UG watches (not status symbol-y enough) or Hodinkee for that matter. The price of the OP's watch featured on Hodinkee has more to do with the rarity of the case and Fabrizio's notorious markup. I myself had a public tantrum when Phillip's decided to feature some of these watches here, but so far, that auction remains an outlier.

jordn · Mar 20, 2016

10H10
Oh OK ! Now how about the ratio Patek - U.G 250.000 / 5.000 is there a bubble somewhere ? 😕
Maybe the Patek is made out of some magical material ?...😗

I'm not sure comparing a 1518 to any watch is a fair fight 😉. Along with the 2499 it is one of the greatest watches ever made. Comparing it to a complicated Rolex watch might be more kosher, but even there, rarity plays a huge part

Americano74 · May 6, 2017

LouS
This one has incorrect and mistmatched subdial hands. That alone makes it a less than pristine example not worthy of the asking price.

Really because mine is exactly the same

ELV web · May 7, 2017

Americano74
Really because mine is exactly the same

Yours are correct, the first picture of this thread the subdial hands are incorrect

kkt · May 7, 2017

Larry S
Ha ha. Price of Single Malt is through the roof. Asia consumption.

🙁

LouS · May 7, 2017

Americano74
Really because mine is exactly the same

Look more carefully. It is not the same.

billving · May 7, 2017

Prices have been crazy for a lot of vintage brands, not just UG. Look at what has happened the last few years with Heur and other brands with Valjoux movements. Are all a little too cool and due to at least stablize if not drop?

Americano74 · May 8, 2017

billving
Prices have been crazy for a lot of vintage brands, not just UG. Look at what has happened the last few years with Heur and other brands with Valjoux movements. Are all a little too cool and due to at least stablize if not drop?

You a r

LouS
Look more carefully. It is not the same.[/QUOTE

You are right my apologies

Diabolik · May 8, 2017

LouS
This one has incorrect and mistmatched subdial hands. That alone makes it a less than pristine example not worthy of the asking price.

It is still a very nice example. Just love the dial! It would not take a lot of imagination to make those hands look a lot better ...

As far as value of vintage UGs or any other brand goes, it seems that there is a lot of "How Much ? " going on, and even more "What's it worth ?". Well I suppose the "how much" question is what the seller asks and "what's it worth" is what the buyer will pay.

Considering the rarity of UGs, the uniqueness in design and the fact that what is out there is it and there will be no more (apart from the odd one or two found in attics), prices are not so bad. Some years ago, we all raised an eyebrow when the 60s Tri was selling at 5Gs. Now we are looking at at least treble that. If we compare it to other prestigious makes, it is not so bad. I remember paying 2K for a 3646. Recently saw a Heur 3646, powered by a valjoux 92, nothing special and in very average condition go at auction for UK 14K without the extra 23% that is tagged on sale by the auction house. Is it worth it ? It must have been to the buyer but I would rather put my "argent" of a nice UG and there are plenty at that price...

There could be some manipulation going on. However, it is difficult to dissect what is considered a fair value. It is important to consider that dealers will always add a premium and there are many prospectors out there both dealers and private that have jumped on the band wagon and are out to make a buck. It is a mine field ! Therefore, it is always best to conduct a good due diligence on any purchase and ensure that you are buying for the right reason; adding a unique watch to your collection, so a long term investment or turning it around quickly for a profit (which is risky business).

Hodinkee Bump? - Compax 12324

mr.kaplan

Larry S

Larry S

LouS

Larry S

jordn

mr.kaplan

Severin

jordn

jordn

jordn

Americano74

ELV web

kkt

LouS

billving

Americano74

Diabolik

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