Hodinkee announcement

Wibbles · Jun 21, 2017

sgrossma
I wonder where some of that data comes from. I can't recall ever filling out a survey (or being asked).

I'd say it's plucked straight out of the aspirational marketing cookbook. "Our readership are sooo sophisticated, join our club and you could be just like them" sorta thing and pretty transparent with it. Nothing new in the watch game mind you. I have a pilots watch and can't fly, military watches and I couldn't shoot fish in a barrel and divers and I can't even swim. 😀 In fairness we are all a little mad in this game. 🤨

I'd reckon their readership and especially their buyers are a lot more "average", middle class, middle management type folks. Many - if not most considering their overpricing of vintage stock - of whom would be new entrants in the more recent and wider crossover watch market, whose knowledge of watches would be fairly limited and they would rely on the site and its oft slick industry/dealer articles/promotions[delete as applicable] to make decisions regarding values for them. More longer term and informed watch hobbyists regardless of financial clout would view many of their values with suspicion. The "mil/billionaires" would either be more hunting for value(the majority I've known know the value of a penny) or would have their own personalised shopper. They might buy from outlets like that on a whim, or when the Burgundy is flowing of an evening.

They do have real clout in the market though and fair play to them on that score. In isolation. Whether such media/dealers are good for the hobby is another days work. The hype and dealer speak has increased significantly compared to a year or two ago, as have the runaway "values" of any watch model or brand value that they highlight.

In the end one takes ones choice regarding authenticity and value. Caveat emptor and all that.

Mouse_at_Large · Jun 21, 2017

Whether you believe their claims about their demographic, and whether or not you personally like what they do, their real or perceived affect on the market and their (successful) strategy of monetising their "brand", this LE sold out in an hour, so I'd say they do know their market.

QED

pcdubc · Jun 21, 2017

Mouse_at_Large
Whether you believe their claims about their demographic, and whether or not you personally like what they do, their real or perceived affect on the market and their (successful) strategy of monetising their "brand", this LE sold out in an hour, so I'd say they do know their market.

QED

Probably even left some rent on the table. Secondary prices of their LE pieces typically end up higher than original, at least in the near term.

Longer term, I don't know. But perhaps that's precisely why they consistently leave some short term gains for their clients, to entice them (and prospective clients) to future purchases.

The long term viability of this strategy rests on the longevity of the brand. I have no priors on how brands like Hondinkee fare in the long run.

tyrantlizardrex · Jun 21, 2017

Mouse_at_Large
Whether you believe their claims about their demographic, and whether or not you personally like what they do, their real or perceived affect on the market and their (successful) strategy of monetising their "brand", this LE sold out in an hour, so I'd say they do know their market.

QED

Nail on the head.

Cad290 · Jun 21, 2017

sgrossma
I wonder where some of that data comes from. I can't recall ever filling out a survey (or being asked).
I believe sometimes when they hold events, they ask for your information in order to attend, but most events are held in NYC and that would skew the data upwards heavily.
Also, I am sure there are many mega millionaires and even billionaires that read, so that would also bring up the average.

Billionaires pay people to buy watches for them

abrod520 · Jun 21, 2017

pcdubc
The long term viability of this strategy rests on the longevity of the brand. I have no priors on how brands like Hondinkee fare in the long run.

Well, you're not buying a Hodinkee watch, you're buying a watch from a respected and/or well-known brand that Hodinkee consulted on the design of. So, if you buy the Hodinkee Zenith, or Ressence, or Nomos, or this TAG - even if Hodinkee is forgotten completely by tomorrow morning - buyers of these watches still have a (pretty nice) Zenith, Ressence, Nomos, TAG etc.

Kmart · Jun 21, 2017

ConElPueblo
Sorry, but that particular bit about their readers is the single biggest piece of bullshit on the internet. It has been quoted several times, but nowhere have I seen it contested. IMO, it's either a completely made up figure from the Hodinkee bloggers themselves or a result of an online survey where all the sad, insecure hipsters on the site have tried outdoing each other in PhD claims, CEO titles and million dollar income fantasies.

Hate on them all you want, but the facts are that every single one of their LEs have sold out in well under a day, some in under an hour. This includes the $45,000 collaboration with Vacheron Constantin that came out a few months ago. That claim very well may be totally made up, and sure, it does make them sound a little ridiculous, but I don't think it's wholly without basis.

tyrantlizardrex · Jun 21, 2017

As someone pushing themselves into the blogging/podcast space, I'd love to be hated on as much as Hodinkee are... 😉

Kmart · Jun 21, 2017

tyrantlizardrex
As someone pushing themselves into the blogging/podcast space, I'd love to be hated on as much as Hodinkee are... 😉

Ben Clymer right now:

sgrossma · Jun 21, 2017

Kmart
Hate on them all you want, but the facts are that every single one of their LEs have sold out in well under a day, some in under an hour. This includes the $45,000 collaboration with Vacheron Constantin that came out a few months ago. That claim very well may be totally made up, and sure, it does make them sound a little ridiculous, but I don't think it's wholly without basis.

It is well known by now that they pre-sell some of this inventory. So how long it takes to "sell out" is not quite accurate. At least that is what I've been hearing...

abrod520 · Jun 21, 2017

tyrantlizardrex
As someone pushing themselves into the blogging/podcast space, I'd love to be hated on as much as Hodinkee are... 😉

OK, so when's the first Time4APint / tyrantlizardrex X-33 LE coming out? 😁

pcdubc · Jun 21, 2017

abrod520
Well, you're not buying a Hodinkee watch, you're buying a watch from a respected and/or well-known brand that Hodinkee consulted on the design of. So, if you buy the Hodinkee Zenith, or Ressence, or Nomos, or this TAG - even if Hodinkee is forgotten completely by tomorrow morning - buyers of these watches still have a (pretty nice) Zenith, Ressence, Nomos, TAG etc.

True, except the buyer paid a premium over the fair value of the comparable piece by the manufacturer, for the Hodinkee LE inscription and design.

This is clearly valued by the market, at least for now

tyrantlizardrex · Jun 21, 2017

abrod520
OK, so when's the first Time4APint / tyrantlizardrex X-33 LE coming out? 😁

LOL - I can't see that happening.

I'm probably too honest and outspoken for my own good, for any brand to ever partner with me for anything... expect for maybe Ben & Jerry's, or any beer company. 😉

Having a custom beer or ice cream would make me much happier than a watch... I'm really not cur out for the cut and thrust world of million dollar super yachts and wearing tailored suits. ::facepalm1::

abrod520 · Jun 21, 2017

pcdubc
the buyer paid a premium over the fair value of the comparable piece by the manufacturer, for the Hodinkee LE inscription and design.

In some cases this may be true, but in the case of the Vacheron for instance, that watch was not available in steel in any dial color, and so the Hodinkee LE adds value in that it's a coveted material for high-end dress chronographs.

In the case of this TAG, I have to say that if TAG had done this themselves without Hodinkee, I doubt they'd have trouble selling 10x the number of them at the specified price. New from a dealer, a Calibre 18 Telemeter (the model from which this LE takes its case and base movement) isn't much cheaper either.

pcdubc · Jun 21, 2017

abrod520
In some cases this may be true, but in the case of the Vacheron for instance, that watch was not available in steel in any dial color, and so the Hodinkee LE adds value in that it's a coveted material for high-end dress chronographs.

In the case of this TAG, I have to say that if TAG had done this themselves without Hodinkee, I doubt they'd have trouble selling 10x the number of them at the specified price. New from a dealer, a Calibre 18 Telemeter (the model from which this LE takes its case and base movement) isn't much cheaper either.

I agree with a lot of what you said here.

For the VC, you are right. Had VC done this as a limited run without Hodinkee, it probably would've sold out at that price, sooner or later.

For this Tag, you are right that the MSRP is comparable, but one could expect a substantial discount at the AD, and an even greater one in the secondary market. The same is not true for the Hodinkee LE.

There is no doubt that Hodinkee did their HW (and have cool friends who own cool rare pieces) to redesign the exterior that speaks to history. Thats value added, priced in the market.

Wibbles · Jun 21, 2017

Mouse_at_Large
Whether you believe their claims about their demographic, and whether or not you personally like what they do, their real or perceived affect on the market and their (successful) strategy of monetising their "brand", this LE sold out in an hour, so I'd say they do know their market.

QED

I agree 100% MaL. And I have zero issue with that. You pays your money, you makes your choice. And they have built a brand and following through hard graft and fair play to them for that. I applaud that when they're selling Dinkee collaboration new watches.

However M, I do take issue with their influence on the vintage market. Where they use that brand and following to "massage" the market to their own and other dealers and especially auction houses ends. Lest we forget this article where Ben was arguing for/justifying/priming the market to accept redials. As we all know in the hobby a major no no in the vintage game. How many posts on this community have "is this a redial?", "hell yeah it is, avoid"? And rightfully so. His justification/comparison to vintage cars was more than a stretch(and inaccurate). and TBH sounded more like a press release from the auction house(s).

That's the issue I have. The watch industry is already extremely interlinked. Where the media pundits rarely say a bad word and the vast majority of "journalism" are company press releases with a few words changed to protect the dubious and a journalist's byline. To go against that grain means being put beyond the Pale as a journalist and good luck getting any industry engagement.

The issue I have with outlets like the DInk(and they're not alone) is they claim an independence, an objective view, but are influencing the market to a degree I personally find troubling.

abrod520 · Jun 21, 2017

pcdubc
one could expect a substantial discount at the AD, and an even greater one in the secondary market. The same is not true for the Hodinkee LE

This is the most interesting thing about this - I'm not sure whether it will be immune to depreciation. A couple of examples of the new Monza have traded in the secondary market for ~ -30%, for instance. I'd expect the new Autavia to follow suit, but then neither is truly a limited edition of course. (The Monza is numbered, and will have a shorter production run than other lines, but is not truly limited. Similar to the Omega FOIS). And of course, it's just a Sellita movement with a Dubois-Depraz chronograph module.

On the other hand, the Skipperrera captures the imagination of Heuer collectors. It's a beautiful watch with an unconventional design, and so is the Carrera Dato 45, and this new LE is a combination of the two. The upside of the off-the-shelf movement is that parts and experienced service may be readily available long into the future... That may prove to be irresistible to collectors down the line, and with such a limited production run, it may end up being an elusive and coveted modern analog to the watch it's based on.

In short: 🍿

Foo2rama · Jun 21, 2017

I don't get the hate for Hodinkee other then jealousy. They are Watch nuts that parlayed into a very successful business. Yes they have made mistakes and quickly addressed them yes they had some external help but afaik they have never done anything nefarious

Wibbles · Jun 21, 2017

Foo2rama
I don't get the hate for Hodinkee other then jealousy. They are Watch nuts that parlayed into a very successful business. Yes they have made mistakes and quickly addressed them yes they had some external help but afaik they have never done anything nefarious

Not quite. In the vintage market they have influenced that market to their own ends as dealers in same. Give me any page of their vintage sales and I'd bet I could point out some real howlers(and better counsel could point out even more). And overpriced howlers at that. Aimed at the largely uninformed user base they have fostered as one of the "independent voices". And they can be anything but. Look how many articles promote dealers and particular auction houses even particular auctioneers. There is also a tendency to have an article on a particular segment and within weeks or days, a promotion of an upcoming auction in the same segment.

As I said I have zero issue with them making a few quid. I admire that. I do have issue where they seek to manipulate the market with too many editorials that promote such manipulation.

Foo2rama · Jun 21, 2017

Wibbles
Not quite. In the vintage market they have influenced that market to their own ends as dealers in same. Give me any page of their vintage sales and I'd bet I could point out some real howlers(and better counsel could point out even more). And overpriced howlers at that. Aimed at the largely uninformed user base they have fostered as one of the "independent voices". And they can be anything but. Look how many articles promote dealers and particular auction houses even particular auctioneers. There is also a tendency to have an article on a particular segment and within weeks or days, a promotion of an upcoming auction in the same segment.

As I said I have zero issue with them making a few quid. I admire that. I do have issue where they seek to manipulate the market with too many editorials that promote such manipulation.

Them putting something up for sale and people buying it, is not exactly shoving it down their throats. People are free to research themselves, and Hodinkee never states they have good prices or any future value.

I agree some of the auctioneer coverage has been a little off... looks at the Speedmaster one. But you are alleging they are making money from pumping a segment before they cover the auction... please explain how exactly they are making any money there.

As for them creating a market... Porsche make more money per car on average then any other MFG. They created the brand and market do you hate them? People are paying for Hodinkee curating the watches. When an error on any watch they have on sale is pointed out they fix it. Heck they took back at least 2 watches that sold when an error was discovered post sale. Expecting them to be experts on every watch is insane. There selection is a lot better then most dealers out there that I don't see anyone hating other dealers. They can sell at those prices as what they sell is in better then average condition and they stand by them.

Would I buy from them? No, I rather research and find one at a better price. Some people are not like that.

Hodinkee announcement

Wibbles

Mouse_at_Large

pcdubc

tyrantlizardrex

Cad290

abrod520

Kmart

tyrantlizardrex

Kmart

sgrossma

abrod520

pcdubc

tyrantlizardrex

abrod520

pcdubc

Wibbles

abrod520

Foo2rama

Wibbles

Foo2rama

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