Anyone have a historical watch?

w154 · Sep 15, 2023

But if I take a quick look at the your sheet, I can only see one “survivor” out of these 24 serial numbers shown in Guidos pic. Doesn’t that infer a survival rate of 2.5% which is at odds with your suggestion of a survival rate of >50%.

w154 · Sep 15, 2023

Seiji
I dont know actual rate. But we have lots of watches. The cases I said have high survival. Movements most likely not all from cosd batches.

It doesn’t add up in my mind. I’d guess that the majority of examples with correct radium dials and hands have also correct movements. In the table there are over twenty examples with radium dials, If the snapshot from Guido (24 serial numbers) represented 20% of all supplied movements, then I’m pretty sure we’d see more than one from this range.

w154 · Sep 15, 2023

Seiji
6 years of data and asking people for extracts. Only those dates have people shown extracts. Something odd about that right?

Isn’t there also 24th April ? And there are only fifteen extracts total I believe.

Lépine · Sep 15, 2023

w154
Isn’t there also 24th April ? And there are only fifteen extracts total I believe.

I dont have a Aril 24 listed were did you see? Maybe was a typo on earlier sheets?

w154 · Sep 15, 2023

I’m not trying to focus on dates, more the order sizes. I don’t see how the hypothesis that we have over 50% survival can work with the fact that only one of the 20+ Radium dial watches with known serial numbers can be found on Guidos photo.

Lépine · Sep 15, 2023

Again. I am only talking about the cases. Not entire watches. I am sure many movements were damaged, lost, or remain unfound becase the watches were dove, disassembled, repurposed. So where did the remaining movements to complete empty cases come from? Wrong movements right? We find new Tuna shows up every year after 6 years. People find empty cases and put donor movements in them. Some correct others not correct. It happens so often I try to id newly found watches so buyer can check on their own if unsure

Lépine · Sep 15, 2023

The dates are very important if you want to be certain the movement was in batch 40/100. If I am going to spend more than $10,000 for a radium COSD. I would want correct extract wording and that includes invoice dates that other watches have also been delivered on. Serial number range is not precise enough in this situation. We see examples of movements in serial range but it was for different watch reference.

w154 · Sep 15, 2023

Seiji
Again. I am only talking about the cases. Not entire watches. I am sure many movements were damaged, lost, or remain unfound becase the watches were dove, disassembled, repurposed. So where did the remaining movements to complete empty cases come from? Wrong movements right? We find new Tuna shows up every year after 6 years. People find empty cases and put donor movements in them. Some correct others not correct. It happens so often I try to id newly found watches so buyer can check on their own if unsure

Are there actually any examples of a recently built up tuna-can watch with an original radium dial and handset but a clearly incorrect movement ? My feeling is that cases do turn up, but dials and hands essentially don’t (apart from my lucky find). So any recent build that has a correct dial and hands probably came from a Dennison case, and probably has a correct movement.

w154 · Sep 15, 2023

Seiji
The dates are very important if you want to be certain the movement was in batch 40/100

No it’s the serial number that is important. The date is just an associated fact.

w154 · Sep 15, 2023

Seiji
I dont have any agenda. It is just a buyers recommendation.

No I know that for certain… I just thing there is some much speculation and guesswork that gets dressed up as fact, that we need to be more precise in what we say. And if I had an agenda I’d be all for small original batches, ridiculous asking prices, and so on, but I’m not.

Lépine · Sep 15, 2023

Fair enough. I can only say I have evidence of three dates confirmed to a reasonable extent that April 14, May 2nd, and May 14th was for 40 of 100 Baume Co. ordered movements that were for COSD. I have never said what the serial number range is. I have only shown what serial numbers have been found. Unfortunately, collectors are swapping movements and dials and hands so often I have started posting on a newer table the swapping too. It's just such a mess. Very hard to find an untouched watch now. I think we need other pages from the archives to prove other dates and COSD deliveries like the remaining 60/100. We have to remember that LEA also says what dial was on the watch. But the extract doesn't say it. Without a COSD dial, the movement could be for a locally produced dress watch delivered to UK.

w154 · Sep 15, 2023

Seiji
Fair enough. I can only say I have evidence of three dates confirmed to a reasonable extent that April 14, May 2nd, and May 14th was for 40 of 100 Baume Co. ordered movements that were for COSD. I have never said whar the serial number range is. I have only shown what serial numbers have been found. Unfortunately, collectors are swapping movements and dials and hands so often I have started posting on a newer table the swapping too. It's just such a mess. Very hard to find an untouched watch now. I think we need other pages from the archives to prove other dates and COSD deliveries like the remaining 60/100

But to be fair you often refer to “the correct range”, so you must have a range in mind. In my mind I see four dominant blocks of serial numbers as plotted. I think that likely to be correct, and it’s certainly better than taking a single range that starts with the lowest believable SN and ends with the highest. And whilst I do see a lot of transplanting of Dennison guts into COSD cases, I really don’t see any of the tuna cans you mention that are being built up with incorrect movements (apart from the obvious ones with repro dials).

w154 · Sep 15, 2023

Seiji
No I believe I have not used that terminology after 2020 I realized I was naive at the time. I am an AI data scientist if you didn't figure out by now.

As you mentioned Viktoria’s watch had a movement that was in the range, I figured you were working with a idea of a correct range.

I’m painfully aware that this most likely appears to outsiders as a dick-waving contest, and that I’m probably focusing on the detail to an unhealthy degree, but like it or not you’re broadly considered something of an authority on these watches. If there’s something that doesn’t stack up it feels best to point it out, and to try and back it up with evidence. The data you’ve collected allows for good analysis of the serial number ranges so we shouldn’t be passing up on that opportunity. Then together with an extract we can start to get close to certainty that a specific movement was (or wasn’t) supplied in a COSD related order.

Lépine · Sep 15, 2023

I am only compulsive about finding information. I stuggle with the presentation of the information I find. I find a ton of information. I give all the information and let the reader interpret it. My bias is always in the data too, because it is hard to avoid confirmation bias. We only ask questions of information we think is wrong but most often forget to question information we believe is right.

w154 · Sep 15, 2023

Seiji
The dates are very important if you want to be certain the movement was in batch 40/100. If I am going to spend more than $10,000 for a radium COSD. I would want correct extract wording and that includes invoice dates that other watches have also been delivered on. Serial number range is not precise enough in this situation. We see examples of movements in serial range but it was for different watch reference.

Like this ^, what is “serial range”. And what movements are in “range” but the wrong reference.

Edit to add: And personally I’m not really comfortable with the assertion that 40/100 somehow indicates a block of 40 movements from an external order of 100. It doesn’t sound right, and doesn’t really work with the distribution of serial numbers amongst known watches. Is this meaning of the 40/100 stamp something that’s well known to Longines collectors as fact, or just an idea ?

Lépine · Sep 15, 2023

The BOAC watches all need investigation. Many have had the wrong dials in the beginning. These watches which we dont know the histories are in the data set in the middle. There is no pattern to the dials to indicate they are original "BOAC" dials. BAS watches on the otherhand seem to all have radium dials and we have extract.

w154 · Sep 15, 2023

Seiji
The BOAC watches all need investigation. Many have had the wrong dials in the beginning. These watches which we dont know the histories are in the data set in the middle. There is no pattern to the dials to indicate they are original "BOAC" dials.

I don’t think we can draw too much from the B.O.A.C. watches when trying to figure out the COSDs. Are there really lots of tuna cans built up with correct radium (and even MOD I suppose) dials but incorrect movements ?

w154 · Sep 15, 2023

I’ll try to summarise my questions in a DM. They’re lost here.

w154 · Sep 15, 2023

Seiji
The data set has or serial number range has many BOAC watches in Dennison cases with no two dials and handsets alike. We dont have proof they are COSD. Some have COSD dials. We dont know what MoD did to dispose these watches. To filter out this potentially bad data is difficult based on only serial numbers because they are not outliers.

Outliers can generally be seen when the data is presented graphically. I will try to update my sheet and maybe include and highlight BOAC serial Numbers where they’re known. If a BOAC movement came from a COSD batch then I think it would be apparent from the plot. If it didn’t, then it also would be apparent.

w154 · Sep 15, 2023

As an example, the plot I showed before is zoomed in on what appears to be the area of interest for genuine COSD, if you zoom out to include all the points, then SNs from random 6b/159 donors stand out like a sore thumb !

Anyone have a historical watch?

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