2021... the hobby is dead ?

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I can across these two watches in Facebook marketplace:



I asked the seller how much. He said 12k.



Yes the hobby is dead.
 
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Having bought my "25 years Apollo 11" Omega Speedmaster in 1994... which ran daily until 2016, and seeing the prices nowadays I believe the wristwatch hobby might be dead for "average Joe" 👎
On the one hand Omega prices for a regular new Speedmaster have gone through the roof as 3 decades ago "average Joe" could buy a Speedmaster which cost him/her a monthly paycheck. Anno 2021 who has a netto paycheck of US $ 7000.00 let alone US $ 14000.00 ?
On the other hand auction prices have gone into the 100K (e.g. November 2021 Phillips auction results)... crazy prices which can only be paid by wristwatch dealers or investors who want to diversify their portfolio, going from real estate, large agricultural terrains, classic cars and nowadays vintage watches.
Then again, within a decade You won't be able to drive Your vintage Ferrari but You'll still be able to wear Your 1960s Speedmaster.
Being an amateur astronomer and becoming an "old" man, I know that observation, not age brings wisdom... 🤔
So what are we observing here ?
In 1994 there were no specialized wristwatch auctions and there was no internet spreading information worldwide.
Since the new millennium it has been clear that there's a growing difference between the watch world and the (existing) watch community.
But even the latter has changed. Who pays these astronomical prices?
Investors, speculators, close contacts to auction houses... "nouveau riche" millionaires (Middle East, China, ...) ?
Just imagine it might be a pure "pre-Millennial" group of collectors who buy these watches of their dreams... will these retain value or drop to almost zero as the new young generation "Millennials", who (currently) are not interested at all at wristwatches, won't be buying these wristwatches at auctions in the future ?
Last but not least, it's not all negative as wristwatches are the item of reuse by excellence and some astounding auction amounts went to charity !
What do You think
Not only Omega prices but also Rolex prices (even worse distortion of price)....
 
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Funny how this topic keeps arising. 😉

I suspect the conversations will begin to change.

 
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As a relatively new collector, it's crazy looking at prices of vintage pieces. However, the premium on vintage I still understand as naturally they aren't making any more of them.
However the new hype pieces are just ridiculous. The amount of capital required is very high to get in the game. Guess for the new collectors we will have to obtain pieces at a slower rate to what is desired
🙁
 
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As a relatively new collector, it's crazy looking at prices of vintage pieces. However, the premium on vintage I still understand as naturally they aren't making any more of them.
However the new hype pieces are just ridiculous. The amount of capital required is very high to get in the game. Guess for the new collectors we will have to obtain pieces at a slower rate to what is desired
🙁

A bit of encouragement. Don't overlook the Speedmaster and Seamaster. These are really well made watches at decent prices if you're looking at new or couple year old used.
 
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A bit of encouragement. Don't overlook the Speedmaster and Seamaster. These are really well made watches at decent prices if you're looking at new or couple year old used.
Yes, they are amazing watches. I've bought an 1861& 861 Speedy in the last year, along with a 2531.80 Seamaster. I fear they are not the last to be added to the collection though!