Just wondering if the 1861 Moonwatch will rise in value on the second hand market now that it's been discontinued ? With the new model 25% more expensive I've been hearing that the hesalite version is now very hard to find at Omega AD's and people are buying them up fast. What do you think ?

 

Perhaps, but I wouldn’t expect them to be valued at more than their retail price anytime soon, and more than likely less than that. Omega has been making the 1861/1863 models for a long time. They are by no means rare.

 

These things take years to go up and stay up. You’ll always get a bump in price, then it will quickly flatten out and drop back. Bottom line is, don’t rush out to buy one because it’s discontinued. I rush out to buy one when a piece checked all my boxes.

welcome to OF, David.

 

Doubtful, those in the know and value vintage will want a 321, those who want a shiny new watch will plump for the 3861.

Plenty of the 1861s made over the years, there'll be some speculators who may have hoarded new 1861s.

I reckon they'll hold their value more or less, time will tell.

 

I’d say it is impossible to know because....covid! It has fh anger everything and people have more time and energy to give to hobbies I’d vote it will keep its retail and then go up in 5-10

 

Everything in this crazy day and age of watch collecting gets a bump when things change or are discontinued. It won’t be a Rolex size bump but you can already see FOIS prices creeping up. I suppose if you wanted to buy an 1861, it’ll be better sooner rather than later

 

Sure, there are a colossal number of the 1861s that have been made over the years, but how many will have the box and all accessories that came with it going forward, and in impeccable condition? Those examples will be in demand in the years ahead, those that have been well worn with replaced parts or missing paperwork/accessories will not be as valuable. I don't think they will zoom in value but there is now a floor under them, no more 1861s wlll be made. I see a few BNIB examples now being sold at zero discount on the grey market, that's new and not unexpected.

 

Agreed.
However, one can't reliably forecast the broader market sentiment.
There's also a number of factors in the back of my mind that are likely contributing to the reported surge in popularity of the 1861 Hesalite, some of which may prove to be folly and not become valid for those who are tending to speculate.
But if nostalgia prevails, then I can imagine a relatively rosy future for owners of "the real moonwatch".

 

The bump factor is not a certainty.
But the significance of the changes to the new Speedy may be enough to trigger enough nostalgic interest in the old.

 

Luminova 1861 is super common...

i see it only going slightly down if anything.

 

I've bought Hesalite Speedy in September for 6300 CAD (tax included).
Two weeks ago I saw on one forum 2019 Speedy was sold for around 6300 CAD within 48 hours. Used one.
During last 1.5 years grey market prices increased for something like 1500 USD for Speedy.
Yeah, it will not appreciate in price after new release. Definitely.

 

Exactly. a well worn daily-driver 1861 isn't exactly going to explode with value. You know, the one with the scratches on the bezel or the scratches on the back of the lugs from happily changing the straps. Unless it's the one that Jony Ive bought.

For better or worse, if you treat one of these like a rare coin and don't enjoy it directly, then there's the investment potential. It's like that article about exotic cars, where the Lambo with the plastic still covering the seats is worth a fortune.

 

But you can be sure that dealers in a couple of years will use “last 1861-version, THIS is the one to get” and “last of the real space flown Speedies” etc. and demand 2x retail price. Will they sell? Only time will tell.

 

Ask your self this... do Tritium 1861’s carry a premium?

18 jewel marked 17 861’s? 18 marked 18 861’s?

220 bezel errors?

 

I don’t know what the original cost was for those versions but I’m guessing that the current market price is still higher than the original MSRP. If that’s true then the value did go up but that still doesn’t make them great investments.

 

I don’t think so. There will probably be a slight avg increase as sellers try to cash in on the discontinuation but it will be short lived simply due to the vast amounts of watches available. It will always be a buyers market with these.

Due to the amount of 1861s available without any distinctive features the most you could hope for is for the watches to follow the market upwards linked to price increases and inflation.

 

The 1861 limited editions will do very nicely

 

I do expect a steady but slow increase as it has been the case for the last few years. Prices have been raising in the used market significantly since I first entered the market 4 years ago.

 

As an owner of an ST2 (that isn’t going anywhere BTW!) I wonder whether they’ll be a run on the LE versions of the Moonwatch with the old movement that are currently available? Am I right in thinking that the ST3 will incorporate the new 3861 when it comes out?

 

this post from Robert-Jan still leaves a whole lot of room for speculation: