Watch values increasing, are they seen as “good investments” in the current financial turmoil?

Dan S · Mar 20, 2020

padders
You said that already, yesterday at around 8.59pm in fact, except it doesn't stack up too well when you look at it closely. You don't sound smug, you sound over optimistic. The UM sold at retail for £4,750. They sit unsold for weeks at £6K and shift currently at nearer £5,500. Well done you made a few quid but I make it more like 15-20% so not sure where your higher figure is coming from unless you were able to nick one at £3.5K that is!

ps before you sneer and accuse me of talking them down be aware I have one too so have been keeping an eye on resale.

And don't forget selling/payment fees and shipping? As well as the fact that only a seller with a strong history and reputation can get top dollar. This seller would be lucky to break even in the end. And in the process he'll be lucky if he doesn't have to deal with scammers, looky-loos, complainers, returners, etc.

The difference between a theoretical top dollar sales price and real-life is like night and day. It's always the people with little experience selling who think it's a goldmine. 🙄 As an occasional seller, I don't look forward to doing it, and I'm generally happy to break even.

bgrisso · Mar 20, 2020

C24 should create an app where it tracks the value of your watch in real time every day, like the stock market. And you can trade in watch futures, and bundle watches together for sub prime lending. That way we can bring the total insanity of the world wide financial situation into vintage watches, and totally destroy the soul of why we got into watches in the first place. 🤦

Rant aside, obviously we all have to be smart with watches, they can be very expensive. I've made the mistake of bringing investing mindset to watches, mostly because I'm pulling funds that would otherwise go into investment accounts. Looking over my spreadsheet of buying and selling, for a total of selling around 50 watches since I started collecting, I'm currently up a grand total $185 USD. Some of those were big losses, some big gains, and most were break even. That's not counting the thousands of hours of my time, or all the tiny little fees here and there that I don't keep track of. That doesn't take into account all my current watches, which tend to be the best, and potentially the most appreciated.

Anyhow, no one is saying to be stupid, to not pay attention to the finances, etc. The conversation about money and watches always tends to come back to the same refrain, which is experienced collectors saying forget about investing, just be smart and follow what you love, as an enjoyable hobby. If you do this, you will probably also do just fine on the $$ side.

Of course, just saying this doesn't mean anything, and it won't do anything. Because people are stupid, and never listen to anyone, and have to make the same mistakes for themselves, over and over and over. At least I am. 😗

Tony C. · Mar 20, 2020

The irony of this thread having been started when it was is incalculably deep.

Hoddspur · Mar 21, 2020

Some people really do go into anal overdrive on this topic. If all I wanted to do was to ‘invest’ in watches I really wouldn’t waste time involving myself in discussions on this forum. However, pick the right watch and it can be viewed as a reasonable investment/safe haven, so good job I say. Don’t forget to invest your $185 wisely - you never know? 👍

eugeneandresson · Mar 21, 2020

Hoddspur
Some people really do go into anal overdrive on this topic.

That's because the number of new threads created on this topic (edit: being 'watches/investment') is in 'anal overdrive'...its absolutely diarrhetic (especially considering what is happening in the world presently)...

asrnj77 · Mar 21, 2020

STANDY
Hit the nail on Tudor

Tudor was good when you had 300 people looking at 100 watches for sale.
Not so good when you have 100 people looking at 300 watches for sale.

Tudor was always good for people that wanted a good looking watch with a good history and performance. It may be less of an investment opportunity now if their supply has exceeded current demand but I suppose the same argument could be made about the dozens of diamond encrusted datejusts available at any Rolex retailer. The “investor” watch collector has ruined a lot for the average watch enthusiast.

As I’ve opined before the investors that keep flipping watches are going to be left without a chair when the music stops. If that $9000 Batman that you paid $17000 for stops being so desirable or Rolex just keeps pushing them along for years to come, you’ll be luck to get $12000. Not bad if you paid $9000. Not so good if you paid $17000

SpikiSpikester · Mar 21, 2020

asrnj77
The “investor” watch collector has ruined a lot for the average watch enthusiast.

Spot on. That's one of the truest things I've seen in this thread.

Collector or enthusiast ≠ Investor.

Each has very different aims and behaviors, even if sometimes there is a bit of overlap.

Walrus · Mar 21, 2020

I notice some good prices on vintage Rolex on Reddit. Seems like some prices coming down (on something’s) I bought one watch on Reddit without any issue but I am hesitant to use fandf with someone I don’t know. Found a nice Tudor in Texas but it went during discussions with the seller.

Fatcat · Mar 21, 2020

Today I the Antiquorum Auctions people still spend high $ for all the watches on sale none of them as undersold , was looking , I bought also no real panic at the moment

killer67 · Mar 21, 2020

Fatcat
Today I the Antiquorum Auctions people still spend high $ for all the watches on sale none of them as undersold , was looking , I bought also no real panic at the moment

Agree - the real lesson in the AQ auction is that excellent watches are still selling and poor and mediocre ones don’t sell or sell below market.

Dan S · Mar 21, 2020

K killer67
Agree - the real lesson in the AQ auction is that excellent watches are still selling and poor and mediocre ones don’t sell or sell below market.

I was surprised at a lot of watches that passed despite what seemed at first glance to be a relatively low reserve. But after reading the opinions here, I'm questioning my first-glance judgement, and I'll go back and have a closer look.

ConElPueblo · Mar 23, 2020

ConElPueblo
I think that when a large number of middleclass/higher middleclass people who only got into "collecting" a few years ago are laid off, a lot of them will be looking at their collection of modern watches in order to raise money.

A lot of them will be disappointed to find a lot of the value they thought were there, gone.

A brand that comes into mind for being hit massively by this is Tudor, which I think will be selling 2nd hand at large discounts once reality sinks in - that the days of standing in line for a BB GMT are over and the market now are flooded with them.

I think that 2nd hand Rolex prices will go down as well, but not to the same degree. Most other modern watches will continue to lose value the moment they leave the store...

A friend just messaged me telling that on the most visited Danish FB group for watch selling there are now 67 Rolex 116610 listed, some of the ones a couple of years old are below current list price. All of these bar perhaps a few listings are from Danish sellers and our nation is tiny.

67 submariners... The tide has turned, IMO.

wbfondren · Mar 25, 2020

I definitely am on the “buy for passion and enjoy appreciation if it happens” side of the argument, but people can’t deny that watches are an asset that appreciates. Even further, watches can prove to be a very solid investment if you have good information or can find a great deal somewhere.

In the past, records show that watches (along with similar assets) maintain strong value through downturns and recessions. And though some bubbles are beginning to burst as COVID breaks out, I think we’re only seeing a period of hesitation as people are testing the waters to make sure this time will be no different than the others. Vintage watches are still selling, and if you have a watch in great condition I wouldn’t worry about it. If you’re trying to buy, always focus on condition as that will guarantee you the best possible outcome. Definitely don’t buy a worse quality ‘higher tier’ watch, even if it means you have to not get the reference you want. Always buy the best of what your budget allows and at the end of the day, you better like what you own because if it all hits zero you still have to wear it!!

SpikiSpikester · Mar 25, 2020

wbfondren
but people can’t deny that watches are an asset that appreciates. Even further, watches can prove to be a very solid investment if you have good information or can find a great deal somewhere.

Ok, I'll bite...

it's not too hard to deny that watches are an asset that appreciates. Why ? Well...

lots of watches just don't fire the imagination enough to hold an ongoing and increasing value & they never regain the value they had when first bought. Just look at all the old catalogues filed with watches that sank without trace & are worth hardly anything now...

but - you say - the prices go up ! Yes, but once inflation is taken into account it turns out that all those watches are doing is holding a settled value and only increase with inflation. So, yes the £/$ price is higher, but all its doing is holding its value over time and not appreciating. Many popular watches fall into this bracket.

This is just another form of putting money into stable physical assets rather than keeping it in a bank - except there is always the chance that the watch might catch a fashion wave (impossible to predict) and then take off in real value.

To me, that is is what most of think of when we look at watches as "assets" or "investments". But, really I don't see the difference between this and premium bonds - your money stays stable and there is a slim chance that you might win a prize... And then...

there are the watches which are interesting to collectors but whose £/$ value stays relatively static. These watches are actually losing value over time as the price they trade at does not keep pace with inflation over the years. Examples of this are the Speedmaster 125 and a lot of Dynamics (of which I have several!).

So - are "watches an asset that appreciates" ? To me, no... they're mostly a stable place for money to rest or depreciate, with a limited few models catching the breeze of fashion (e.g the last five years of Speedmaster values !) and becoming appreciating assets.

All of which is reducible to the shorthand of "buy what you love, forget investing" 😀

wbfondren · Mar 25, 2020

SpikiSpikester
lots of watches just don't fire the imagination enough to hold an ongoing and increasing value & they never regain the value they had when first bought. Just look at all the old catalogues filed with watches that sank without trace & are worth hardly anything now...

So - are "watches an asset that appreciates" ? To me, no... they're mostly a stable place for money to rest or depreciate, with a limited few models catching the breeze of fashion (e.g the last five years of Speedmaster values !) and becoming appreciating assets.

All of which is reducible to the shorthand of "buy what you love, forget investing" 😀

I think it goes without saying that you should only look at watches that have proven history of retaining value. You can look through those old catalogs and see a steady increase (that outperforms inflation) with watches. Simply saying “not all watches will increase in value” does not mean that vintage watches as a whole are not an asset class that has the potential to appreciate.

With the same argument, stocks are not “an asset that appreciates” as some go down and ‘some catch the breeze.’ You can’t just blindly associate all watches as ‘good investments’ just as you can’t associate all stocks as ‘good investments.’ But in the general sense, stocks are a solid asset class and are good places to invest money and I believe watches can be treated much the same.

With respect and research, you can identify watches that have showed a strong history of retaining or increasing in value and in some cases you may be able to identify a brand that is underrepresented and paddle towards the wave before the rest of the market rides it. But either way you need to educate yourself (just as you would with stocks) to make purchases that you can *feel* are good buying decisions. No guarantees in watches just as much as stocks in my opinion.

I would also disagree with your point that ‘limited few models’ catch the breeze, this is quite the contrary as you can see the dramatic rise of value of the second hand watch market over the last ten years (when this whole thing really caught on to a larger audience). Going from $2-3B to $10-15B (depending on who you ask) in a span of 5-7 years is significant! The market as a whole has exploded and it is undoubtedly true that vintage watches are an ‘appreciating asset’ when bought in the right manner.

But...! I circle all the way back around to the fact that unlike stocks, they are an asset that you can enjoy! And because of this, I’d say you should lead with passion as you amass a collection (for investment or enjoyment) because if this all goes away you’ll have to still smile when you’re wearing what you have left! So while we disagree in some areas, we end up agreeing in the end: buy what you love.

SpikiSpikester · Mar 25, 2020

wbfondren
’ You can’t just blindly associate all watches as ‘good investments’ just as you can’t associate all stocks as ‘good investments.’

Although it pretty much looked like you were saying that all watches are good investments, I appreciate the clarification.

Nevertheless, most individuals are "investing" in individual watches - where the scope to make a "bad pick" is much larger than simply investing in an overall asset class fund or tracker.

Dan S · Mar 25, 2020

wbfondren
it is undoubtedly true that vintage watches are an ‘appreciating asset’ when bought in the right manner.

I must be a terrible buyer, since the vast majority of the watches I sell net me only a small profit after fees and shipping. 😁

Do you buy and sell often, or is this more of a hypothetical statement?

wbfondren · Mar 25, 2020

SpikiSpikester
Although it pretty much looked like you were saying that all watches are good investments, I appreciate the clarification.

Nevertheless, most individuals are "investing" in individual watches - where the scope to make a "bad pick" is much larger than simply investing in an overall asset class fund or tracker.

Sorry for the confusion! And definitely, I think that ‘watch funds’ should not become commonplace.

wbfondren · Mar 25, 2020

Dan S
I must be a terrible buyer, since the vast majority of the watches I sell net me only a small profit after fees and shipping. 😁

Do you buy and sell often, or is this more of a hypothetical statement?

I’ve bought and sold for a number of years as a collector and have now begun dealing. Homerun’s are very hard to find in watches, most dealers (honest ones!) work on slim margins and capitalize on forging great relationships rather than hedging bets on individual watches.

Additionally, those dealers who do place big bets on hype (the ones you see on instagram with 20 116500LNs and 5711s etc) are in tight spots with COVID and an oil crash placing great pressures on the market. Those watches that placed value in hype (like most new watches that sell above retail) lack the true depth of rarity and of varying condition like vintage watches do and have seen a big correction in the past few weeks.

Archer · Mar 26, 2020

wbfondren
I think it goes without saying that you should only look at watches that have proven history of retaining value.

If that was your strategy, you would have missed out on some of the biggest gains in the vintage watch world. Many watches that are now worth a lot of money, were initially unloved and had no prior "history of retaining value".

No one has a crystal ball, so if you are going to really "invest" in watches, you should be doing it with money you can afford to burn...

Watch values increasing, are they seen as “good investments” in the current financial turmoil?

Dan S

bgrisso

Tony C.

Hoddspur

eugeneandresson

asrnj77

SpikiSpikester

Walrus

Fatcat

killer67

Dan S

ConElPueblo

wbfondren

SpikiSpikester

wbfondren

SpikiSpikester

Dan S

wbfondren

wbfondren

Archer

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