Understanding grey market pricing

mydeafcat · Jul 25, 2022

Forgive my ignorance. Seriously. I was under the impression grey market usually meant a lower sticker price that came with trade offs (limitations on warranty, repairs etc.). Or, as I’m beginning to suspect, is it also about paying for availability when ‘traditional’ options are exhausted?

Historically, when it comes to a sparkly new watch, I’ve never considered buying anything new unless from an AD; the relationship is key for me. With a milestone birthday on the horizon (too close for comfort, actually, and depressing me to bits), my desire to mark it with a Tudor Pro or BB GMT has me rabbit-holing all over. Presently it seems, these are hen’s teeth unless buying used or grey. For this kind of purchase, I prefer brand new. Especially with the date-wheel-plagued early GMTs. I’m not interested in a pre-owned time bomb.

What I’m finding is prices for a watch that retails for +/- $4500CDN is often selling for $1000-2000 more on the Grey market. Is this the cost of scarcity and jumping the wait list queue? I know. That’s likely a rhetorical question. I also reckon this is related to things like paying well over MSRP that Rolex peeps have been discussing for years now.

the_drunk_dial · Jul 25, 2022

Sounds like you answered your own question. Happy hunting.

Evitzee · Jul 25, 2022

Supply and demand, products that are wanted produce higher prices if supply is insufficient.

omegawatchlover · Jul 25, 2022

Evitzee
Supply and demand, products that are wanted produce higher prices if supply is insufficient.

What he said. But go and try to get a submariner or GMT from an AD, tell me if they pull one out for you to buy. Everyone and their mom wants a submariner, the lists are long. There are only so many Rolex a store gets so they have to choose wisely who gets it. They are a business and want returning customers.
You can jump the line now for a thousand + rather than paying visits, buying jewelry you don’t want and kissing ass. Life is short. If it’s the only watch you want, just pay up or play the Rolex game.

omegawatchlover · Jul 25, 2022

The grey market is slowing but still more than MSRP. People will always want sport models. Great and affordable prices for the best watches.

vintage hab · Jul 25, 2022

omegawatchlover
You can jump the line now for a thousand +

If only it were 1000+. Based on the new watches for sale on this forum, mark up is closer to +50%

Donn Chambers · Jul 25, 2022

At the moment, a lot of grey market prices (even for pieces that you can get from the AD in a reasonable time) are still inflated. Why? I think it's because people have gotten used to ordering whatever they want from their couch and getting immediate gratification of having it in a day or so. They will pay a premium to do that rather than drive to the AD, put in an order, wait a week or so for the piece to be delivered, then have to go back to the AD.

Time is money, man! 😀

With that said, I have also noticed that a lot of gray market dealers have A LOT of stock (especially Rolex) on sale at the moment. They need to move that stock. There's one site I frequent (looking for a Cartier Ballon Bleu for my wife) and I have seen fewer new pieces added and more older pieces getting discounted. Many are still over retail, but the trend is in the right direction to wait it out.

Unless you are impatient, which is what they are counting on.

Mark020 · Jul 25, 2022

Grey traders are not buying much at the moment. Think the next step will be a liquidity sqeeuze

omegawatchlover · Jul 25, 2022

vintage hab
If only it were 1000+. Based on the new watches for sale on this forum, mark up is closer to +50%

I meant for the submariner, it’s a few grand. GMTs will always be priced high, same for other difficult watches because that was the case even before the pandemic. This is the norm for sports models.

Davidt · Jul 25, 2022

In the UK Subs have a list of £7150 but seem to be listed for 11-12k so even they’re at 50% mark up now. GMTs are more like 100% or more.

omegawatchlover · Jul 25, 2022

Really? I mean a 124060 ND sub is 10k MSRP after tax. They sell for around 12k here. Talking US market
GMTs aren’t worth talking about, they’ll never go back to 14k in the grey market. Even people feel lucky at 18k lol

Davidt · Jul 25, 2022

124060 Subs are listed for 15-16k on DavidSW which is in line with UK prices.
Obviously this is asking price, not selling, but from my experience DavidSW doesn’t discount very much.

omegawatchlover · Jul 25, 2022

Wow that much! 15/16 gets you an unworn 22’ sub date .
Their stuff is the highest but they have great reputation and that asks for a premium.

I just hope all this means it’s easier to get my Rolex at retail 😁

vbrad26 · Jul 25, 2022

I keep reading that the Tudor GMT is somewhat available in AD's, but I have not found that to be the case.
Used prices on the GMT seems so have slid by a couple hundred USD, with I think a lot of them coming in around $3500 depending on strap.
The date wheel issue is something to definitely keep in mind.
If I were you, I wouldn't totally eliminate the used market, but just stick to buying something Jan 2020 or newer, when the 5 year warranty kicked in (and also supposedly around the time when they "corrected" the date wheel issue).
I was able to get one through a local AD just by asking. They did not have one there, but were able to trade with another store.
Not sure if that is common practice, or I just got lucky, or maybe both...

mydeafcat · Jul 25, 2022

vbrad26
I keep reading that the Tudor GMT is somewhat available in AD's, but I have not found that to be the case.
Used prices on the GMT seems so have slid by a couple hundred USD, with I think a lot of them coming in around $3500 depending on strap.
The date wheel issue is something to definitely keep in mind.
If I were you, I wouldn't totally eliminate the used market, but just stick to buying something Jan 2020 or newer, when the 5 year warranty kicked in (and also supposedly around the time when they "corrected" the date wheel issue).
I was able to get one through a local AD just by asking. They did not have one there, but were able to trade with another store.
Not sure if that is common practice, or I just got lucky, or maybe both...

As I recall re: Christmas, you got very lucky!

Even the used market is bananas here. The GMT on leather now retails for $4500; the newer Pro is $4300. And yes, both are a bugger to find new. Used sellers here in the Vancouver area, hoping for the impatient folks to fall over themselves to scratch the itch, are asking new prices - or more! - for a used piece. I'm not talking LNIB, I'm talking desk-swirled 2018/19 pieces. I'm patient, not desperate.

I really appreciate everyone's thoughts here. I was hoping to understand others' experiences of late. Some really great observations.

Davidt · Jul 25, 2022

I’m not sure what it’s like now, but I’ve certainly seen several GMTs in ADs windows in the UK over the last few years. Rarely on bracelet but a few on straps.

I thought Tudor GMTs were pretty much one you could get as a walk on now. Perhaps not.

omegawatchlover · Jul 25, 2022

There’s plenty available at my local AD. Strange to hear Tudor GMT being that hard to find elsewhere…

mydeafcat · Jul 26, 2022

omegawatchlover
There’s plenty available at my local AD. Strange to hear Tudor GMT being that hard to find elsewhere…

There’s a fancy new Tudor Boutique here. Not a BB GMT nor Tudor Pro to be had. Lengthy wait list, too. Mind you, both it and the Rolex Boutique across the street are owned by the same family so perhaps the same shenanigans as described above are in play. They really pushed me to buy a new Ranger when I was in last week. “Buy it as a collector’s piece…it’s an important historical watch”. I’m serious. Maybe that’s the price of admission. I’m not biting.

There are two other ADs, as well, each with with 2 locations. Nada. One says I can put down $2500 and they’ll add me to their order list; I’d be 35-40 down the list. Insanity.

vbrad26 · Jul 26, 2022

Davidt
I’m not sure what it’s like now, but I’ve certainly seen several GMTs in ADs windows in the UK over the last few years. Rarely on bracelet but a few on straps.

I thought Tudor GMTs were pretty much one you could get as a walk on now. Perhaps not.

omegawatchlover
There’s plenty available at my local AD. Strange to hear Tudor GMT being that hard to find elsewhere…

This is the sort of stuff that prompted my above comment re: availability.
I mean I MAYBE go into the local AD (that also is home to many other brands and also situated next to Rolex) once a month.
But whenever I do, in the last couple of years, the cases have been lackluster.
Maybe a GMT on the leather or NATO, but never a bracelet.
I will usually pop in to any AD's I see while out of town, and it has been the same story...

Duracuir1 · Jul 26, 2022

With a milestone birthday on the horizon (too close for comfort, actually, and depressing me to bits),

Understanding grey market pricing

mydeafcat

the_drunk_dial

Evitzee

omegawatchlover

omegawatchlover

vintage hab

Donn Chambers

Mark020

omegawatchlover

Davidt

omegawatchlover

Davidt

omegawatchlover

vbrad26

mydeafcat

Davidt

omegawatchlover

mydeafcat

vbrad26

Duracuir1

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