Trying to Understand Auctions

My preference is decidedly vintage, so I don't spend much time looking at modern Omegas, but this caught my eye, and I don't understand it.

A used Railmaster Co-Axial Master Chronometer 40mm (Steel on Steel) just sold at auction for $6720 (once you include the "buyer's premium").

The same watch is available new, direct from Omega, for $5200. There are eighteen (18!) used versions available on Chrono24 for less than $4000.

I understand that it's easy to get a little carried away in the heat of an auction, but this seems beyond ludicrous. Am I missing something?

I am pretty sure that the auction will be canceled..This happen when two persons want the watch so much and they decide to bid an amount to win everything and they do not expect other person to do the same..😀. It also happen to a few at my own auctions but of course the winner did not pay and had to cancel it. Regards.

Yes it was an actual auction house with both in-person and virtual bidding. I put in a max bid of $500 on the watch with zero expectations of winning. I just wanted to see how the process worked before potentially making a serious bid on something more to my taste. I don't know how in-person winners were handled, but virtual bidders would have their credit card charged immediately. And the terms were pretty clear that there was no recourse. I suppose if there was outright fraud, it would be feasible to dispute the credit card charge.

TBH, I was expecting a winning bid (including buyer's premium) of around $2500 since that's what similar versions (strap instead of bracelet) show on eBay; another data point is $3100 for the same watch on C24.

I saw that same pattern of behavior for many items today. It is a bit baffling.

I don't know if this is true for liveauctioneers (which I think is based in the USA), but I have noticed that similar sites in the UK can act as aggretators for multiple auction houses. So you can register to bid on the aggregator's site and/or you can register to bid on the specific auctioneer's site. Until the lot goes live, I don't think the different sites know about bids on the other, so the rapid escalation might be users who have submitted max bids on two different sites rapidly bidding against each other. Or more precisely, the bots on those sites bidding on behalf of their users.

That said, I have no special insight into the business model(s) or business relationships in this world.


I've seen that work in both directions. In the example that started this thread, the estimate was $8,230 - $12,350, seriously ridiculous. But I assume the incentive is to go way overboard on those estimates to make the customers feel like they got a deal. After all, the buyer bought this watch for only $6720.

OTOH, I saw an English auction house put an estimate of £120 - £140 for a 1940s Omega that looked to be in very good condition. I couldn't imagine it would go for that low and submitted a max bid of £600. I believe it finally sold for around £1100, and I think that's actually a good price for the watch. (I would have bid that much myself if circumstances had allowed it.)

This seems to be the norm on UK online auctions. In the not too distant past I placed bids on many listings for vintage Omegas with low estimates. In each case I’d place a max bid well above the estimate but still at a price that represented value, allowing for the commission. The result was always the same - each watch sold at least 20-30% above what I would have deemed to be market value. No idea who is prepared to buy at these prices - particularly when item descriptions and photos tend to be rather poor.

Well it's not a one-time fluke. Today another used Railmaster sold for $6840 (including commission) notwithstanding the fact that the same watch is available brand new direct from Omega for $5200 (with free shipping and returns). I guess if you're an auctioneer, you should drop by your local Omega boutique, buy out their entire stock, and sell it as used goods in your auctions.

Old thread, but I got curious to see what happened in 2023 (and maybe I was a little bored). I looked at sales of the regular Railmaster (not the trilogy edition nor the Aqua Terra XL). As far as I know, all versions of this watch were in stock and readily available directly from Omega (via the web) for $5200/$5500 (strap/bracelet) and then $5400/$5700 after the mid-year price increase. To keep things simple, I think we can say that the average price for a new Railmaster in 2023 was $5450. That includes free shipping as well as full Omega customer service, warranty, etc. (This is, of course, really a worst case estimate, as the watch is also available new from ADs who would likely offer at least some discount.)

Some of the liveautioneers.com sales for this watch looked totally legit, but three auction houses stood out. These were three of the highest volume sellers in 2023. Here are the results for those three houses: the total number of sales in 2023 and the average selling price (which includes the mandatory buyer's premium). Shipping costs not included.

Pacific Global Auction: 23 @ $6485
Golden Gate Auction: 26 @ $6487
3 Kings Auction: 15 @ $6800

Some interesting observations from this data:

1. The photographs included with the listings were not photographs of the actual watches being offered. They weren't stock marketing images from Omega, but, rather, photos of a used watch (in very good condition). However, all of the photos for any particular reference were of the same watch. So unless, for example, PGA sold the exact same 220.12.40.20.01.001 watch nine times in 2023, they were simply re-using photos. In fact, the same photos were used for watches sold in 2022 and 2024 as well.

2. It's even weirder: all three of the auction houses listed above used the same photographs. And it's not just an occassional image showing up in listings from multiple houses. The exact same set of images is used for a particular reference by all three houses. I think one might conclude that these "three" auction houses are actually all the same one operating under multiple names.

So the buyers of these watches were buying used watches, sight unseen, with no recourse (except possibly their credit card issuer) since "All items are sold as is, where is, with all faults, all sales are final. No refunds and no exchanges are accepted." is clear in the terms and conditions. They have no access to Omega customer service; warranty status is unknown, and they're paying an average price of $6560 plus shipping and insurance, or more than $1000 over the price for a new model!

If this were a one-off occurrence, I could believe that some bidder got carried away and overbid. But this is 64 separate sales in 2023: more than one every week.

Maybe the explanation is nothing more than "people are stupid," but WOE did have a post recently about Watches as Tools of Money Laundering and Illicit Finance.

I’ll note that liveauctioneers.com is a web service presumably available to any auction house. In 2022 I purchased an Omega pocket watch using the service (not from one of the three auction houses mentioned above) and the transaction and watch were fine.

I once emailed an auction house about using the exact same photographs of previously sold items and was told that the previous winner did not pay for the lot so they relisted it. Take that with a grain of rock salt, but they've got an excuse for everything.

Once upon a time not so long ago, there was a watch coming on auction in Stockholm which I really wanted. I was fairly sure that I would be asleep when the auction took place so I asked myself this question: "How high am I willing to go, high enough so that it would be unlikely that anyone would outbid me, at the absolute edge of my comfort zone." I entered a maximum bid.

At this time, a fellow in Hong Kong also wanted this watch very much and he too expected not to be able to attend the auction live. He too asked himself the following question: "How high am I willing to go, high enough so that it would be unlikely that sane person would outbid me, at the absolute edge of my comfort zone." He too entered a maximum bid.

The bids were in in SEK.

It turns out I was up for the auction and as the watch came up, suddenly I won it at my maximum bid price. I was equally delighted and horrified. 😀

Afterward I did some research and eventually came into contact with the other bidder. My maximum bid was $400 higher than his maximum bid and though the difference was well below the bid increment at that level, the watch came to me.

It has become one of my daily wear watches. I will not part with it while I draw breath, 😉

Cheers,

Joe

These 3 sellers all have the same address, which turns out to just be a mail-drop service.

I think that these sellers & others like them with multiple thousand-plus lot auctions per day are just scraping other listings (eBay, yahoo.co.jp, rakuten.co.jp) & reposting.

If someone places a winning bid, & if the front-seller wants the sale, then they go acquire the item from the original listing & drop-ship from the actual seller to the buyer. If the winning bid can't turn a profit for the front-seller then bots flood the lot with 'chandelier bids' to drown out the legit buyer. Gives the appearance of every lot selling, & at sky-high prices.

I'd expect that in any given auction that very few lots actually sell to a legit buyer, but if the whole thing is automated listings plus zero actual inventory then there's no real overhead cost.

So now we don't just have to be on lookout for fake watches, now the whole auction can be fake. liveauctioneers.com could do better.

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