Trilogy LE values

DIV · Oct 7, 2019

I realize that this is entirely speculation, but based on other LE releases in the past (and we know Omega makes too many of them) when do you think the values of the Trilogy pieces will return to match their retail prices?
I purchased my Railmaster new from my O.B. for the full retail price and now I’m seeing them being sold NIB for 2/3 that price. Lightly used, closer to 1/2 of the retail price. I know that the Railmaster is probably the least popular of the three, but I see that Trilogy Speedmasters and Seamasters have taken a similar hit.
Not that I’m planning to sell soon, but possibly some day....based on the performance of similar previous offerings, when will prices rebound? 10 years? 20 years?

Evitzee · Oct 7, 2019

The Speedmaster has held up best, not greatly below the list price of $7,250. No guarantee any watch will trade at or above full price in the future, most won't. I was offered the LE Railmaster last Dec at 15% off, nice watch but still too expensive, imo.

eugeneandresson · Oct 7, 2019

The crystal ball is off duty on Mondays.

However, best guess would be, assuming it does at some point climb :

1) look at ever single LE that is now trading above RRP.
2) look at release date.
3) follow price curve over time to the point where it surpassed RRP.
4) work out the time from release to surpass RRP.
5) sum up those times for every LE trading above RRP.
6) divide by number of LEs used in sum to get the average time to surpass RRP.

Even then, it is nothing more than what it is : a best guess.

In the meantime, enjoy your Railmaster 👍

Meme-Dweller · Oct 7, 2019

The problem with the Trilogy LE is that they simply made too many of them. The only time that variable didn't apply was with the Spectre SM300 MC LE.

alam · Oct 7, 2019

eugeneandresson
The crystal ball is off duty on Mondays....

Reliability of OF crystal balls is fairly low 😀 One example of a few predictions falling short of the mark... well, perhaps as of yet ☕

Evitzee · Oct 7, 2019

Meme-Dweller
The problem with the Trilogy LE is that they simply made too many of them. The only time that variable didn't apply was with the Spectre SM300 MC LE.

The number produced in a LE is not the main factor as to whether it becomes popular and rises in value. The biggest criteria are it has to be something that looks good, it has to speak to people, it has to have a reason for existing AND the price has to be perceived as 'fair value'. If Omega made 3557 Silver Snoopys it still would have been a massive hit and in short supply as the watch hit all the right notes. Limited production runs in the range of 2000-5000 worldwide for a company the size of Omega is tiny, and if the product is attractive they will sell out quickly and hold their value, or rise in value. The key is producing the right product, and Omega has had too many 'meh' LE's over the years, some at the wrong price point. Unfortunately there is no formula to make sure an item will be popular to the buying public, it's often a hit or miss exercise.

DIV · Oct 7, 2019

eugeneandresson
The crystal ball is off duty on Mondays.

However, best guess would be, assuming it does at some point climb :

1) look at ever single LE that is now trading above RRP.
2) look at release date.
3) follow price curve over time to the point where it surpassed RRP.
4) work out the time from release to surpass RRP.
5) sum up those times for every LE trading above RRP.
6) divide by number of LEs used in sum to get the average time to surpass RRP.

Even then, it is nothing more than what it is : a best guess.

In the meantime, enjoy your Railmaster 👍

Yes! That's sounds like a predictable, yet tedious caluclation. Please let me know when you've got it in an app form so I can plug in the model and date of purchase!, LOL! Thanks for the post.

petay993 · Oct 7, 2019

The Railmaster may never get back, popular with WIS due to it's retro looks and quality but your average buyer just sees a little, boring Omega at the same price as a big fat shiny Planet Ocean etc.

S.H. · Oct 7, 2019

I think part of the problem may be their price. Also, the original Railmaster and the older design SM300 are WIS magnets but unknown to the public: so WIS who wanted a LE got one (not many), WIS who like only vintage or dislike coaxial don't buy (quite a few), the general public is left wondering why an old looking watch cost so much compared to a regular model. And on top of this, so many LEs, so many SKUs... it is hard to follow sometimes.

scapa · Oct 7, 2019

They're stunning pieces. My guess is some ineffable combo of fidelity to originals, price and quantity made, as well as direct competitors in their segments. The Speedy went fast and has stayed up because it ticks so many boxes for collectors and LE lovers alike, from case size to movement.

The SMP has the vintage looks and modern movement combo, while lacking the ceramics that Omega has made their trademark in divers, and faces sideways in-house competition from the 300 MC and Spectre. Still, many seem to prefer it to those models, so it too went quickly for the most part and has generally held its value. I bought mine just before the AD put it up on his website, and got a call a few days later asking if I still wanted it because there had been several inquiries straight after.

The RM seems to have great value to RM enthusiasts, but they probably could have made 1957 of those and sold them all. Still a great watch, and I'd expect all three to regain value as the supplies shrink -- and as long as we don't see another trilogy soon.

Quick coda: in-between hemming and hawing and finalizing my SMP Trilogy purchase the AD sold their last two Longines BigEyes -- hadn't seen one before, but what a great piece and well-priced for what it offers. One of these buyers had wandered over to where I was trying on the SMP 300s and admired it with (to me) worrying enthusiasm. Had the Trilogy pieces been priced closer to their modern brethren I expect they'd have sold very quickly to modern/vintage watch fans who were put off by the high price of admission when cross-shopping them against pieces like the BigEye, Captain Cook, Heritage Chrono, etc.

CoDiffe · Oct 7, 2019

Interesting thread - I've actually been eyeing the 1957 Trilogy Speedy for quite some time now and may pull the trigger. Just out of curiosity what would everyone on here consider a "good" purchase price for it? Anything under $6k?

CoDiffe · Oct 7, 2019

Obviously used 2nd hand with box and papers. They seem to go for anywhere from $6k upwards.

rominvicta · Oct 7, 2019

All three of the Trilogy set were reasonably priced. IMHO these three pieces are perfect and they would have sold and keep value if figures were around 1957 per each rather than almost twice more. All of the three I would define as WIS pieces, with timeless, yet outdated for the mass client of Omega.

rominvicta · Oct 7, 2019

CoDiffe
Obviously used 2nd hand with box and papers. They seem to go for anywhere from $6k upwards.

I bought mine for around EUR 6300. That should be close to USD 7000. As new as it may be.

Evitzee · Oct 7, 2019

CoDiffe
Interesting thread - I've actually been eyeing the 1957 Trilogy Speedy for quite some time now and may pull the trigger. Just out of curiosity what would everyone on here consider a "good" purchase price for it? Anything under $6k?

Doubt if you'll find a complete Trilogy Speedmaster for under $6k. I traded for one two weeks ago....it had been listed at $7,200 on the dealer's site and it is hard to fathom exactly what my net cost was due to the trade but I reckon I paid $6,700 for it. But it's a mint example complete with all boxes, hangtag, still valid warranty card from an AD in California, black leather roll with two extra straps and changing tool, etc. I see a few for sale but with no box, or missing warranty card, and I've seen a few of the 557 Trilogy sets broken up and sold separately. Those would be of no interest to me because you don't get the boxes and separate roll with straps and changing tool. On a LE watch you really need the complete box and accessories.

rominvicta · Oct 7, 2019

I’ve seen one as well. Railmaster. With the Trilogy inscription on the dial. I would never buy a piece of that. Whatever it comes with.

orlis · Oct 7, 2019

I had trilogy speedy In the past and payed full rsp when buying from Omega Boutique. Then decided to buy another watch and when selling it...prices that people were willing to pay (not ask to pay) were nowhere close to RSP. I sold mine (used but in great condition) for around $5.5k.

also what is quite interesting, people seem to hate flippers but when it comes to buying a limited edition from the past, they expect you to sell full set, untouched and basically in NOS condition...but who else then flippers will have a watch untouched? Crazy logic.

Evitzee · Oct 7, 2019

rominvicta
All three of the Trilogy set were reasonably priced. IMHO these three pieces are perfect and they would have sold and keep value if figures were around 1957 per each rather than almost twice more. All of the three I would define as WIS pieces, with timeless, yet outdated for the mass client of Omega.

I think you are exactly right ..... they are WIS pieces and there are probably at least 4000 souls around the world that will eventually absorb all of the pieces, but the general man/woman going into a boutique would look at them as too small and too old fashion looking. They want something that makes a splash, and the 1957 pieces aren't it, for one they are artificially aged and people in general don't go for that look unless they understand what the piece is representing.

Sidnos · Oct 7, 2019

Hi, I’m considering a SM LE trilogy which is very reasonably priced at £3,200, worn for a couple of weeks but with no papers box etc.
Buying mainly as I love the watch but what’s thoughts on price considering the lack of box/paperwork etc?
Thanks

orlis · Oct 7, 2019

Sidnos
Hi, I’m considering a SM LE trilogy which is very reasonably priced at £3,200, worn for a couple of weeks but with no papers box etc.
Buying mainly as I love the watch but what’s thoughts on price considering the lack of box/paperwork etc?
Thanks

You should ask yourself why there are no papers? You risk buying a watch that could be stolen from someone.

Trilogy LE values

DIV

Evitzee

eugeneandresson

Meme-Dweller

alam

Evitzee

DIV

petay993

S.H.

scapa

CoDiffe

CoDiffe

rominvicta

rominvicta

Evitzee

rominvicta

orlis

Evitzee

Sidnos

orlis

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