Are you sure there are no signs of tampering? You can't retape a package perfectly. There would be signs of additional glue or just a badly taped piece(or dust would enter under the glue). I always check for retaping.
Do you know who taped the box itself? Does your watchmaker bring the taped box to UPS or does he bring it untaped?
I've ordered lots of stuff over the internet via both UPS and DHL in Europe and I've seen missing packages but never an empty one.
Also the documentation, if it's UPS taking it, there must be documentation, otherwise how would they know what's inside? I don't think they would randomly open it, if it just says watch.
Is it possible that your watchmaker has an apprentice who takes care of taping and sending the packages?
And more importantly does your watchmaker usually work on such valuable watches?
Assuming you report it as theft, could police check tapes from UPS office?(in most EU countries, I think their offices have 24/7 CCTV)
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