Rolex market predictions?

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Don't Rolex make a million watches per annum ?

Someone has to be buying them.

You read that somewhere years ago that was published by someone that was told by a watch/marketing company that has no books available for anyone to look at.

My spin is they have purposely slowed productivity in Rolex to pump Tudor to the world (basically the US who previously wasn’t sold Tudor watches)
But my theory is as sketchy as “ We make a million watches a year that take a year to make”
 
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Don't Rolex make a million watches per annum ?

Someone has to be buying them.
That "someone" is the grey market dealers.
 
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Don't Rolex make a million watches per annum ?

Someone has to be buying them.

Perhaps in China? Largest watch market in the world IIRC.
And perhaps some of the repeat buyers who were favored by the brand worldwide it seems have concluded they don’t need their next umpteenth Rolex right now?
 
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You read that somewhere years ago that was published by someone that was told by a watch/marketing company that has no books available for anyone to look at.

My spin is they have purposely slowed productivity in Rolex to pump Tudor to the world (basically the US who previously wasn’t sold Tudor watches)
But my theory is as sketchy as “ We make a million watches a year that take a year to make”

I call it the mantra for the aficionados 😁
 
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IMHO close to bottoming out and back to long term trend of slow but steady increase

Yeah, no. Not until the Chinese economy sorts itself out.
 
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I have been noticing better availability at ADs, so perhaps it’s a combination of waning demand (from flippers, crypto bros, people generally spending “free money”) and improving supply from Rolex.

Yep. I ordered and received my Exp 1 36mm in a few weeks, and a Sub 41 (for my brother's wedding) was ordered and arrived in just under 4 months. So does seem like things are picking up a bit, at least with a few of the core sports models. I did think about ordering a Sub for myself also but it didn't grab me like I thought it might. Think I prefer the less shiny older models.
 
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Yep. I ordered and received my Exp 1 36mm in a few weeks, and a Sub 41 (for my brother's wedding) was ordered and arrived in just under 4 months. So does seem like things are picking up a bit, at least with a few of the core sports models. I did think about ordering a Sub for myself also but it didn't grab me like I thought it might. Think I prefer the less shiny older models.

That's amazing. Where are you located? 😉
 
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That's amazing. Where are you located? 😉

Canada and the UK.

Still seems to be a lottery and I very much doubt I’d have an easy time finding one of the more rarified releases but it does seem like wait times re easing for some models like basic Subs, Explorers, DJs and OPs.

For the record, I was only ever interested in the Exp 36 and (now) older no-date Subs. I’m not much of a Rolex person but the Exp 1 is just a terrific everyday wear IMO.
 
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I've been seeing 5-digit Explorer 2's sliding below $7K. It's starting to get tempting...
 
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COSC used to publish how many COSC certifications per brand they issued but they stopped that on request from the manufacturers a few years ago. In 2015 795,716 certificates were earned by Rolex, Omega 511,861, so that gives a relative indication of production. Rolex is in the million per year range, maybe a bit more. There are at least 1-2 billion (probably more) people around the world who can afford a Rolex, it's a status symbol, well recognized, portable and holds its value. A good storehouse of value. A million Rolex's a year is a drop in the bucket in relation to demand. The supply might get a little better for awhile but it's never going to be like the old days.
 
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Speculators were buying anything Rolex, particularly Daytona. Any kindof PM or S&G included, then flipping them in a week for close to double. No longer.

The speculators are gone, just like the Vegas Casino workers who stopped buying 3, 4, 5 homes are gone, these speculators aren't ever going to buy Rolexes like they used to. Specs are still holding watches, unwilling to accept their losses, hoping the market will come back so they can get out.

The market isn't coming back. At some point, (6 months?), people will start dumping their watches, and the only way to sell them will be to drop the price. Lower prices will follow lower prices.

People will be able to buy Rolexes at MSRP in stores within 2 years. People who want to wear the watch will be the buyers.

A prediction.
 
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Speculators were buying anything Rolex, particularly Daytona. Any kindof PM or S&G included, then flipping them in a week for close to double. No longer.

The speculators are gone, just like the Vegas Casino workers who stopped buying 3, 4, 5 homes are gone, these speculators aren't ever going to buy Rolexes like they used to. Specs are still holding watches, unwilling to accept their losses, hoping the market will come back so they can get out.

The market isn't coming back. At some point, (6 months?), people will start dumping their watches, and the only way to sell them will be to drop the price. Lower prices will follow lower prices.

People will be able to buy Rolexes at MSRP in stores within 2 years. People who want to wear the watch will be the buyers.

A prediction.
Dream on, son. Will never happen.
 
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Dream on, son. Will never happen.

Son? I'm 67. How old are you?
 
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Older than that, son. 😎

Glad we straightened that out, gramps. 😁

You may or may not be correct about my prediction. That's the great thing about predictions, mate.
 
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Dream on, son. Will never happen.
I personally think it will. I’m now seeing formerly hot models struggling to make list price in second hand sales. At a rough educated guess I think many steel sports models have lost 20-25% of value in the past 6 months. The precious metal stuff has lost more, maybe 30% in some cases. As an example I’ve been offered a recent Cameron DSSD at over 20% under list. I’m not going there as regardless of price, I don’t buy what I don’t like. The bubble is bursting fast.
 
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Dream on, son. Will never happen.
Sure. Tulips, dot.com companies, commercial real estate, residential real estate, bonds, precious metals, the stock market generally every 5 to 10 years or so, etc., etc., etc. Shall I go on?
 
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Sure. Tulips, dot.com companies, commercial real estate, residential real estate, bonds, precious metals, the stock market generally every 5 to 10 years or so, etc., etc., etc. Shall I go on?
Well people getting poorer and they will consider alot before wiring hard earn money. Retail prices will be fine, grey market bleeds. But Rolex krets increasing their retail prices every year, in 10 years who know.