Rolex market predictions?

[NYCwatchgal]

In past 8 months. Rolex prices have leveled off especially in precious metals. By $20k drop in a year (at least in the Daytona rose gold market).

Do you foresee it decreasing much more? Or increase when holiday season rolls around/2024?

 

[Evitzee]

The market sets the price, right now prices are down a bit from the post Covid hysteria when prices went up for cars, houses, watches. No one knows what will happen going forward.

Edited: Aug 28, 2023

 

[Dan S]

The gold Daytona market is not in my wheelhouse, but I do watch Rolex auctions fairly carefully for vintage and 1990s stainless sport models. I saw significant softening last year (starting Spring 2022), maybe as much as 20% on average that extended into the first quarter of 2023. In the last few months, I feel that I am starting to see the vintage market turn around and the screaming bargains are not available any more.

The pre-owned (non-vintage) market for stainless sport models is still in a downward trend, IMO.

I don't know how these trends extend to PM examples.

 

[TexOmega]

Up then down then up then down then up

 

[DoctorEvil]

Rolex prices will probably continue to decrease on the secondary market because of decreased demand, due to rising interest rates and the end of cheap credit. However, I doubt that they'll get to anywhere near retail for the hot models like Daytonas and GMTs. There's a good video on YouTube by an economist who explains this. His manner is a little dry, but it's worth a look.

 

[watchyouwant]

Not the last "up" .... " down down " with Bling Gold Rolexes, where they squeeze mini Rolex signs in every square Millimeter in astonishing abundance....

 

[NYCwatchgal]

DoctorEvil

Rolex prices will probably continue to decrease on the secondary market because of decreased demand, due to rising interest rates and the end of cheap credit. However, I doubt that they'll get to anywhere near retail for the hot models like Daytonas and GMTs. There's a good video on YouTube by an economist who explains this. His manner is a little dry, but it's worth a look.

Thanks for sharing that video!

I saw this video too. Very interesting.

 

[watch3s]

it would be interesting to see things drop a bit. Im more curious how this plays out on tudor as well especially with Rolex buying Bucherer. Ive gotten the waitlist spiel at both watches of switzerland and Tourneau. So Im curious to see how it develops.

 

[Watch my Whisky]

This is an important discussion.

 

[NGO1]

Some PMs are now touching msrp + tax, in MODA. It’s possible to see new PMs dip below, by end of year. Lots of guys and gals in my watch groups are getting calls from ADs to offer them random PMs. My colleague received a call last week asking if he wanted a $40k gold sub. He bought a $2500 Tudor from them 6 years ago. Ha.

It seems PMs are harder for AD to move. The Crypto bros are gone, the tech bros are down and global financial markets are tightening. $40k+ for wrist bling is hard to swallow for anyone.

If @NYCwatchgal is eyeing a specific PM Rolex, I think your money will go further by December. Of course I could be horribly wrong. Rolex will stop producing PMs soon as I publish this post and prices will go thru the roof.

My 116519LN is right at or a tad above msrp in Japan and MODA.

 

[NYCwatchgal]

NGO1

Some PMs are now touching msrp + tax, in MODA. It’s possible to see new PMs dip below, by end of year. Lots of guys and gals in my watch groups are getting calls from ADs to offer them random PMs. My colleague received a call last week asking if he wanted a $40k gold sub. He bought a $2500 Tudor from them 6 years ago. Ha.

It seems PMs are harder for AD to move. The Crypto bros are gone, the tech bros are down and global financial markets are tightening. $40k+ for wrist bling is hard to swallow for anyone.

If @NYCwatchgal is eyeing a specific PM Rolex, I think your money will go further by December. Of course I could be horribly wrong. Rolex will stop producing PMs soon as I publish this post and prices will go thru the roof.

My 116519LN is right at or a tad above msrp in Japan and MODA.

Thanks for this encouraging note! I will wait and see what December/January brings for a PM Rolex

Beautiful Daytona ghost

 

[Perrier]

Here's my take, from a cracked and cloudy crystal ball.

Wealthy people will always have money, but tend to be conservative. They will put their name down at an AD. They won't want a diamond encrusted watch, but rather something a bit understated, like an Explorer II or steel Datejust.

So, Rolex will have no problem shifting watches at ADs.

The grey market, especially when it comes to flashy Rolexes, will suffer. The people buying these will be hit by the recession, and are more likely to be selling their watches then buying anything new.

Therefore my take is as follows:

The ADs will do fine, especially the more conservative models.

The grey market will suffer, for all models, but especially for the flashy models.

If you're going grey, I would continue waiting as the prices will continue to drop for another year or two.

 

[spacemission]

The watches are not an investmen.

 

[gbesq]

Forget Rolex. What about tulips? Bulbs or actual flowers? If neither, futures? My guy at Schwab needs to know.

 

[STANDY]

UK, US, Can and Aus interest rates have all risen and haven’t capped out yet..slowed a touch but not capped out.

Rolex prices will continue to drop.

At least we can see this correlation.
Unlike the empty Rolex boutiques shenanigans

 

[Evitzee]

gbesq

Forget Rolex. What about tulips? Bulbs or actual flowers? If neither, futures? My guy at Schwab needs to know.

You missed the obvious, CRYPTO !

 

[RevZMan123]

gbesq

Forget Rolex. What about tulips? Bulbs or actual flowers? If neither, futures? My guy at Schwab needs to know.

Oranges!

 

[Orinoco111]

IMHO close to bottoming out and back to long term trend of slow but steady increase

 

[ctang]

I have been noticing better availability at ADs, so perhaps it’s a combination of waning demand (from flippers, crypto bros, people generally spending “free money”) and improving supply from Rolex.

 

[BusyBuilder]

Don't Rolex make a million watches per annum ?

Someone has to be buying them.