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Ramblings about the future of vintage watch collecting
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WatchVaultNYC
·Random thoughts:
- There will always be price corrections, the issue will be was your entry price for a watch higher than what the correction will be?
- during the housing bubble, when prime areas are overpriced, nearby areas jump in price as well, and were the hardest to fall when the bubble burst. I would suspect the same will happen to the surging interest in "same movement as.." watches.
- there will always be a supplier of quality aftermarket spare parts. And the collector community will embrace it. One of my college classmates bought the old factory sheetmetal tooling for a vintage jeep model or 3 and has supposedly cornered the market on it (if I am to believe my friends) . Do you call this "genuine aftermarket parts"? I don't know,
- There will always be price corrections, the issue will be was your entry price for a watch higher than what the correction will be?
- during the housing bubble, when prime areas are overpriced, nearby areas jump in price as well, and were the hardest to fall when the bubble burst. I would suspect the same will happen to the surging interest in "same movement as.." watches.
- there will always be a supplier of quality aftermarket spare parts. And the collector community will embrace it. One of my college classmates bought the old factory sheetmetal tooling for a vintage jeep model or 3 and has supposedly cornered the market on it (if I am to believe my friends) . Do you call this "genuine aftermarket parts"? I don't know,
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MPWATCH
·Perhaps, Thomas, however value based on status symbols are terribly fickle. This year's hot fashion item could be completely out of style in 5 years... like a 1974 Impala was considered good looking, giving a desirable floaty ride, and American when new, but by 1979 was considered old style, inefficient, boring to drive, domestic, and unmaneuverable. The car didn't change, but fashion did. The mechanical watch market won't disappear, but I wouldn't bet more than I was prepared to lose that today's collector's grail watches will continue to be the grail watch when I (or my heir) is ready to sell them.
What if future Apple watches and their imitators get even better, allowing full customization and programming of the screen with millions of graphic elements plus loading any animations you wanted? What if they could be smooth and tasteful, or garish and loud, depending what you were in the mood for? What if it wasn't a pain in the butt to program it? I do a little amateur astronomy; wouldn't it be nice to specify a watch with nighttime mode that was completely dark, with UTC in faint red when a button is pushed? What if it showed RA, Dec of the zenith of the sky at all times, taking your location from the built-in GPS?
I would still want mechanical watches... but I bet fewer people would be getting into them.
You mentioned fashion. Great example! Yes, you are correct in saying that fashion is an every developing/changing market. Having said that, are people going to stop buying $800 belts from designer brands? No. Why? Because even if the belt changes, and the design, and how you where it, and where you acquire it, and who's wearing it....Human beings will continue to put something of value on their body to represent their status/ego through material goods. I guess my real point is that we will always have a natural desire to impress without working hard for it, and that my friend supports the luxury market.
I actually had another thought to add to this as well. The guys who grew up around the Moon watch, and the James Bond watch and all these iconic figures who wore watches will also provide a demand for nostalgic items that remind them of their childhood. I think between all the presidents, super stars, and historical figures that wore watches that we remember and think are relevant today, also add additional value in our minds because we relate those items to people in power!
Best,
Thomas
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Davidt
·I actually had another thought to add to this as well. The guys who grew up around the Moon watch, and the James Bond watch and all these iconic figures who wore watches will also provide a demand for nostalgic items that remind them of their childhood. I think between all the presidents, super stars, and historical figures that wore watches that we remember and think are relevant today, also add additional value in our minds because we relate those items to people in power!
Best,
Thomas
Not necessarily. Is there a collector market for the type/style of hats worn by famous people in the 30's-70's? No, even though people that grew up during this period now have significant levels of disposable income. The reason being hats are no longer in fashion. The same may well occur with watches. It's not that the style of a watch may go out of fashion. Wristwatches in general may go the way of pocket watches.
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Edward53
·Not necessarily. Is there a collector market for the type/style of hats worn by famous people in the 30's-70's? No, even though people that grew up during this period now have significant levels of disposable income. The reason being hats are no longer in fashion. The same may well occur with watches. It's not that the style of a watch may go out of fashion. Wristwatches in general may go the way of pocket watches.
Not sure that's a fair analogy as hats were never really that expensive and anyway who cared about them? Cars, motorcycles and for a minority, expensive watches are what my contemporaries dreamed of as kids in the 70s but couldn't afford. I was at school with a kid with wealthy parents and I remember him showing me his Speedmaster with the Moon Watch writing on the back and saying "it's an Omega" in a kind of casual assured tone. I think that stayed with me for years and only surfaced much, much later when I realised I could actually have not one, but several Omegas. Ironically, I don't own a Speedmaster and am not that fussed.
I lost touch with that kid years ago but Google tells me he is now a top cardiac surgeon. I wonder if he still has that Speedmaster?
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Syrte
·I'm curious if there has been a market correction previously?? I would love to see a chart over the last 10-20 years. Was there a dip in 2008 during the financial crisis? I wasn't collecting then. I know markets can't continually rise, but seems to me there's going to be a lot of people buying if there is a correction 👍
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Edward53
·The 2008 crisis if anything spurred demand for watches because it made financial products so difficult to trust, interest rates so low, and corporate returns so iffy. But if interest rates rise, people might prefer to do something else with their cash, and that is when you'll see a "market correction" for watches.
Not just for watches but also for almost any expensive collectable that isn't a top-quality example of its type. Expect the biggest hit in the modern art market, which has left the realms of sanity far behind.
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grizzlycanuck
·Absolutely, there has been a rise/fall of Rolex Subs (Red in particular) as well is 1655's. It's well documented in other forums.
Great, glad to know.....I will pay closer attention
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MPWATCH
·Not necessarily. Is there a collector market for the type/style of hats worn by famous people in the 30's-70's? No, even though people that grew up during this period now have significant levels of disposable income. The reason being hats are no longer in fashion. The same may well occur with watches. It's not that the style of a watch may go out of fashion. Wristwatches in general may go the way of pocket watches.
You cannot compare fashion to watchmaking. It's not in the same playing field as far as where the value is placed in the item. There are too many variables for anyone to have the answer pegged, but my point still remains the same. Wrist watches have no reason to ride off in the sunset.
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cvrle1
·You mentioned fashion. Great example! Yes, you are correct in saying that fashion is an every developing/changing market. Having said that, are people going to stop buying $800 belts from designer brands? No. Why? Because even if the belt changes, and the design, and how you where it, and where you acquire it, and who's wearing it....Human beings will continue to put something of value on their body to represent their status/ego through material goods. I guess my real point is that we will always have a natural desire to impress without working hard for it, and that my friend supports the luxury market.
While there is a large segment of people that do buy these expensive items just to prove their "worth", there is a large segment of people that buy these items for different reasons. I for one try to not buy items made is Asia, not because I am racist, but because more often than not they are not made as well as they would be in other countries. I would rather buy $600 hand made in Italy shoes, than some $100 made in China ones. Not because I want to show off (no one will know the difference) but because they will be made from much better materials, finished product will be better, they will last 10x longer than MIC ones, and they will be a lot more comfortable. Same goes for suits, jeans and other clothing items. I have few lacoste shirts that were made in France that are 5 years old, and look just as new as they did when I bought them. MI Asia Lacoste ones I threw away in less than a year cause they deformed and looked like ass.
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Davidt
·You cannot compare fashion to watchmaking. It's not in the same playing field as far as where the value is placed in the item. There are too many variables for anyone to have the answer pegged, but my point still remains the same. Wrist watches have no reason to ride off in the sunset.
Of course you can. Very few people buy chronographs to time their laps or monitor production efficiency, and very few buy SM300's or Subs to go diving. Vintage Watches are many things to different people, but with the recent surge in interest in vintage watches, like it or not, they are clearly fashion items to a large number of people, and like anything, they can and probably will fall out of fashion. Yes, there'll always be a core of collectors, but they won't support prices for some of the poorer examples that we see at the minute.
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MPWATCH
·Of course you can. Very few people buy chronographs to time their laps or monitor production efficiency, and very few buy SM300's or Subs to go diving. Vintage Watches are many things to different people, but with the recent surge in interest in vintage watches, like it or not, they are clearly fashion items to a large number of people.
I just feel like clothing is so much more temporary. Not sure that the markets are the same because clothing can't increase in value as much as a watch. Watches last far longer so the cycling of the pre-owned market far out weighs the non existent secondary clothing market. As a young collector I really can't help but defend the vintage market like it's my own.....
I apologize for my hard headed attitude 😟
Best,
Thomas
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Davidt
·No need to apologise at all.
I do disagree though.
It's not in the same league but there is a vintage clothing market, t shirts and old Levi's that would have been thrown out years ago now sell for good money at vintage boutiques because they're currently in fashion. Once this trend passes, they'll go back to being thrown out as there won't be a large enough market to support it.
Similarly with watches, there used to be a core of wierdos who for some reason bought battered old watches rather than new ones. Presumably because they are significantly cheaper on the whole and they couldn't afford the a new Omega/Rolex. Then all of a sudden, vintage watches become very popular. There's an explosion of online vintage dealers/blogs etc, it snowballs, and now vintage exceeds the cost of new.
I just can't help but think it's a passing phase and although collectors will keep the prices of the rare and/or quality pieces elevated, once interest wanes, prices will too.
I do disagree though.
It's not in the same league but there is a vintage clothing market, t shirts and old Levi's that would have been thrown out years ago now sell for good money at vintage boutiques because they're currently in fashion. Once this trend passes, they'll go back to being thrown out as there won't be a large enough market to support it.
Similarly with watches, there used to be a core of wierdos who for some reason bought battered old watches rather than new ones. Presumably because they are significantly cheaper on the whole and they couldn't afford the a new Omega/Rolex. Then all of a sudden, vintage watches become very popular. There's an explosion of online vintage dealers/blogs etc, it snowballs, and now vintage exceeds the cost of new.
I just can't help but think it's a passing phase and although collectors will keep the prices of the rare and/or quality pieces elevated, once interest wanes, prices will too.
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cvrle1
·I think this is sort of same conversation as "Speedmaster Bubble" that was going on a bit ago. No one can say for certain what may happen. I guess we will just have to wait and see. 😀
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Archer
··Omega Qualified WatchmakerExactly what happened in the vintage car market, when genuine Mopar parts evaporated from junk yards, the secondary suppliers filled in the vacuum to keep the cars on the road.
Describing aftermarket parts made by others as "genuine" as you did in the initial post I quoted is what raises some issues for me.
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nonuffinkbloke
·Very informative reading.
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MPWATCH
·No need to apologise at all.
I do disagree though.
It's not in the same league but there is a vintage clothing market, t shirts and old Levi's that would have been thrown out years ago now sell for good money at vintage boutiques because they're currently in fashion. Once this trend passes, they'll go back to being thrown out as there won't be a large enough market to support it.
Similarly with watches, there used to be a core of wierdos who for some reason bought battered old watches rather than new ones. Presumably because they are significantly cheaper on the whole and they couldn't afford the a new Omega/Rolex. Then all of a sudden, vintage watches become very popular. There's an explosion of online vintage dealers/blogs etc, it snowballs, and now vintage exceeds the cost of new.
I just can't help but think it's a passing phase and although collectors will keep the prices of the rare and/or quality pieces elevated, once interest wanes, prices will too.
Very true, I guess my argument stems from the fact that the waning of interest will not kill the market in our lifetime.
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