“Private Watch Sales” recent trends and observations

airansun · Mar 29, 2021

Without cataloguing instances, I’ve observed two distinct trends in our Private Watch Sales Forum in the past twelve months or so. 📖

1 - It may be that Rolexes continue to push skyward, but vintage Speedmasters have come to a near dead stop, and it seems to get worse month by month. It’s not just buyers being pickier or prices are falling. There have been some notable pieces, fairly priced or better, that have sat for weeks and months on the page. (I know, there have been an exception or two). Some of them have killed me not to buy, so I know how long a couple have kicked around, without a buyer in sight. As the owner of more than one Speedmaster, my heart goes out to the owners of those notable pieces. 😬

So that we are clear, I’m not talking about value nearly as much as I am speaking to liquidity. I’m a hobbyist, so I’m not doing this to make money. But, in times of crisis, some of us have to look to liquidity. This apparent Speedmaster trend is sobering.

(By the way, and I’m sorry that Dennis is longer here to read this, I admit that I’m more than a little bored of vintage Speedmasters, and have been for over a year. Looking at them, following the market or wearing them. 😲 Over-saturation, I guess. Serves me right. Oh, and Dennis would not be persuaded by this confession, I think, because all I’ve done is I’ve switched to 60’s Rolex Oyster Perpetuals. See below. Oh well.)

2 - There have been some remarkably well priced, rare and pristine pieces that have appeared in the forum and typically sold within hours. Some broke my heart to have missed. Good going you sellers (you know the ones I’m talking about)! 👍

I know it’s not about me and I have nothing to do with it, but these sellers and those watches make me proud of OF.

Fascinating to watch how the distinct sectors of the market are moving during this pandemic. 🍿

Tell me I’m wrong or tell us what you’ve noticed?

Gratuitous photos of what I’m talking about follow (none from our fine Private Watch Forum :whipped:

)

JwRosenthal · Mar 29, 2021

I’ve noticed the same kinds of changes, particularly with newer (90’s-00’s) Speedy’s- there was a week or two where there were 3 newish Speedy’s all around or under $4k- I was surprised- I thought the boat had sailed on $4k speedys.
I have also noticed a surge of some fine Longines examples lately at reasonable prices- but the market seems soft on them here despite brisk sales at comparable prices on eBay.
I haven’t seen as much Rolex here in the last 6 months as I used to, but the market is on fire everywhere else for anything wearing the coronet so it I assume higher dollars can be gained on WUS for mediocre examples (just because it has the name) or TRF for better examples (because those guys have deep pockets for primo Rolex and don’t suffer as much other brand distraction like here).
What I have noticed sadly on the open market, is the drying up of what was once a huge pool of “bargain” watches. If you follow the bargain thread, 6 months to a year ago it was ripe pickings from dress watches to divers and chronos- but the pickings have become slim recently and harder to find quality pieces at good values- everything has inflated.
About a year ago I posted in the diver thread about different “tiers” of divers and their rough price points. Since then, there has been insane movement in that market and prices that has been steady for years have been thrown out of whack. Chrome plated divers with basic Swiss movements that were easily had for $50 all day long are now fetching $200, stainless no-name or sub-brand divers once $200 are now pushing the $500 mark or more!
I think watching the flow of the market as a mild collector and spectator can be fascinating, but as an avid collector or dealer- it’s nail biting.

Dan S · Mar 29, 2021

It's not just Speedmasters. There are a lot of really nice pieces that are just sitting. Based on some recent threads (e.g. about the right number of watches to own), I am coming to realize that a relatively small fraction of OF members are active collectors, and for whatever reason, many of the collectors are apparently not currently in acquisition mode. Maybe people are happy with what they have. 😁

Kiltie · Mar 29, 2021

Possible reasons:

- Tax season

- Potentially emerging from Covid ( time to put money back into the real world )

- Relative to above, those who bought during lockdown because they had nowhere else to spend are temporarily sated.

- A collective realization that there's almost no gosh dang reason to spend that much on a watch ( just have to accept there's no accounting for Rolex buyers or their largely dubious reasoning* )

* I said 'largely', not all...

dsio · Mar 30, 2021

There are some weird fluctuations in supply too, a couple of weeks ago I was trawling ebay and blown away by how many good buys and solid watches there were around, now the last few days its pretty bleak, 20,000 results for Omega and 19,998 of them are pretty meh.

At times Private Watch Sales is full of watches from prominent collectors who are downsizing and you get great stuff at great prices one after another. Then at other times its Billy the flipper trying to squeeze $1500 from a steel C-Case Connie with visible glue on the dial.

Shabbaz · Mar 30, 2021

First of all, the speedmaster market was to much money driven IMHO. Almost a bubble. A lot of threads about a speedy soon were about value, investment, marketdevelopment, etc. So many mediocre examples were praised while many non speedy collectors were thinking: why? I dont know if the speedy market is soft but I do think it's a good thing to take a step back and try to figure out what was the most important thing when you started with this hobby: money or the enjoyment of owning a historic piece.

Regarding the vintage market in general, the good days are over. Just a couple of years ago I bought seamasters and connies everywhere in the 300-800 range. Now a dogleg pie pan connie are 2k+. The volume of these lower priced watches is much lower and it's more difficult to find good examples for reasonable money. Because of this I've focussed the last year on other brands.

dsio · Mar 30, 2021

I think good pie pan connies, especially deluxe and grand luxe models are still well undervalued, the flotsam is priced too high but a nice clean unpolished CK14900 is a watch that deserves a $3k+ price tag easily and Deluxe pie pans should at least be on par with junk grade Rolex 1803s of not more valuable.

Speedys are going through a bit of necessary correction but there is always a buyer still for the nicest example in the market, its the good to poor examples that needed correcting badly and that’s what has really happened.

LesXL · Mar 30, 2021

Dan S
It's not just Speedmasters. There are a lot of really nice pieces that are just sitting. Based on some recent threads (e.g. about the right number of watches to own), I am coming to realize that a relatively small fraction of OF members are active collectors, and for whatever reason, many of the collectors are apparently not currently in acquisition mode. Maybe people are happy with what they have. 😁

I can't comment on the Speedy market, not owning one, and not yet at the interest level to look for one...if so, due to my small wrist, it would be a reduced version or rather a Date one (I seem to like those quite a bit!)

I tend to agree with you on the active collector note. Though, in my case and maybe similar for other collectors, the current economic situation due to Covid makes it difficult to spend certain amount of money without self-cautions. I work in the hospitality sector, and basically without "normal/regular" incomes for a year, now. So, my good savings have been thinning down and I need to "rationalise" (if such thing is applicable) my watch buying.

I mean by that, that I have seen many really nice and fairly-priced watches that would have been a buy for me pre-Covid time.

As I am still missing some watches to my collection that I'd really like to acquire (Panpie and Polerouter for example), I'm more reluctant to buy other watches that do also deserve a place in a collection.

Basically, established collectors with grails already in the collection, could either spend more freely funds on other brands, while collectors still building their collections can be more reluctant to spend right now due to economical uncertainty in the short/medium terms, and rather save for a grail, rather than diversify the collection.

MikeMan2727 · Mar 30, 2021

Very good observations, I agree with you. I wonder how much of the Speedmaster market might also be affected by the modern Speedmaster releases, especially the new Moonwatch that has many appealing vintage features. A casual collector may choose to purchase the modern version for a similar price as a vintage model.

Just waiting now for @ndgal to tell us how strong the Speedmaster market remains.

#AskHimHowHeKnows

Dan S · Mar 30, 2021

Well, all of these comments about vintage Speedmaster prices are the same arguments that have been made about vintage Rolex sport models for the past 5 years. They sound totally reasonable to me, but ... we'll see.

STANDY · Mar 30, 2021

The vintage Speedmaster is suffering due to so many new Speedmaster models that have been released in the last 3-4 years.
50th
321
Snoopy 3
New Speedmaster

Omega is smart as anyone that has bought any one of the four watches or in some cases 2 of the above has not bought a vintage Speedmaster

Think about it as they have also created new enthusiasm for vintage in the future.

Larry S · Mar 30, 2021

Dan S
........, and for whatever reason, many of the collectors are apparently not currently in acquisition mode. Maybe people are happy with what they have. 😁

That would describe me. I can amuse myself with what is in the fleet without needing to add. Although the new SM 300 merits a visit to my local AD. That may trigger some selling.

Syrte · Mar 30, 2021

Is it conceivable that dealers were perhaps buying off the forum and now they’re more cautious?
My impression from the watches I follow (and those are not at all Speedmasters about which I know nothing) was that dealers and/ or flippers were in large part responsible for market price increases, because they knew they had willing buyers at the ready.
And once dealers succeeded in establishing a price some collectors tried to emulate their pricing while cutting out the intermediary.

Spacefruit · Mar 30, 2021

The speedmaster market has been suffering for some while from naive investor buyers.

Or to put it another way, an inexperienced buyer over paying for a watch that appears to tick the boxes in the belief he can easily and quickly sell it on for a profit. For a while this was true.

What many fail to grasp is that the difference between a $8,000 Ed white and a $22,000 Ed white is often hidden from these less experienced buyers, and as long as these miss-appraised low quality watches circulate between other less experienced buyers then these $8,000 watches start to creep up and up, but look who buys them, not experienced collectors.

I am sure this is true for all watches, and collectibles.

I am pleased to see a lot of low quality speedmasters return to realistic levels - these watches still make great pieces to own at the right level.

We also have to remember that 10 years ago, eBay had five or six privately owned speedmasters per week. As in not from collectors.

this has all changed, and for a while everyone wanted to make $1,000 off every crappy speedmaster they bought, and thought every straight lug was worth 20k even with crappy lume and dinged bezel.

then the lovely dealers weighed in and offered prepared watches, often to Rolex Refugees priced away from their county, and everyone looks at these less attractive speedmasters and then began to ask what’s the fuss about speedmasters? They don’t look very nice.

the right 145.012-67 can get $18,000 - an admittedly astronomical price - all day long with no waiting. And it will be a spectacular, mesmerising thing, even to a non speedmaster geek. That’s the point, and why it is so valuable - any one can see the quality when presented with it. Another one, with issues in the dial bezel and appearance, may not get a bid at $7,000. It may not even get a bid at 5,000.

As ever, quality holds its value.

There are more buyers for a fine watch than the basket cases offered all around at the moment.

krogerfoot · Mar 30, 2021

STANDY
The vintage Speedmaster is suffering due to so many new Speedmaster models that have been released in the last 3-4 years.
50th
321
Snoopy 3
New Speedmaster

Omega is smart as anyone that has bought any one of the four watches or in some cases 2 of the above has not bought a vintage Speedmaster

Think about it as they have also created new enthusiasm for vintage in the future.

How popular are late-model Speedmasters with vintage collectors? I had assumed apropos of nothing that the new models attracted no interest from vintage fans, but I've since come to realize that @STANDY is definitely not alone in having feet in both pools.

dsio · Mar 30, 2021

Spacefruit
The speedmaster market has been suffering for some while from naive investor buyers.

Or to put it another way, an inexperienced buyer over paying for a watch that appears to tick the boxes in the belief he can easily and quickly sell it on for a profit. For a while this was true.

What many fail to grasp is that the difference between a $8,000 Ed white and a $22,000 Ed white is often hidden from these less experienced buyers, and as long as these miss-appraised low quality watches circulate between other less experienced buyers then these $8,000 watches start to creep up and up, but look who buys them, not experienced collectors.

I am sure this is true for all watches, and collectibles.

I am pleased to see a lot of low quality speedmasters return to realistic levels - these watches still make great pieces to own at the right level.

We also have to remember that 10 years ago, eBay had five or six privately owned speedmasters per week. As in not from collectors.

this has all changed, and for a while everyone wanted to make $1,000 off every crappy speedmaster they bought, and thought every straight lug was worth 20k even with crappy lume and dinged bezel.

then the lovely dealers weighed in and offered prepared watches, often to Rolex Refugees priced away from their county, and everyone looks at these less attractive speedmasters and then began to ask what’s the fuss about speedmasters? They don’t look very nice.

the right 145.012-67 can get $18,000 - an admittedly astronomical price - all day long with no waiting. Another one, with issues in the dial bezel and appearance, may not get a bid at $7,000. It may not even get a bid at 5,000.

As ever, quality holds its value.

There are more buyers for a fine watch than the basket cases offered all around at the moment.

I totally agree with this assessment, and it really is both necessary and overdue although there are likely a lot of people that will end up with watches they shouldn’t have bought now that the music is stopping.

The moral is if given the choice between buying an Ed White with a few asterisks, swapped parts and heavy polishing if you spent that same money buying the nicest -68 transitional on the market, the lack of straight lugs and 321 movement will be overcome in the long term or at least that’s what I would recommend. Some watches really need to just be spare parts and its a bit like buying a Ferrari 308 with a pile of rust and chassis damage instead of buying a mint E46 M3 for the same money, just because its rarer doesn’t mean its better or even a decent investment at all.

kov · Mar 30, 2021

Imho we simply are facing a logical cleanup. The market is gaining in maturity.

Information is available everywhere. A (regular) Speedmaster is easy to assess and to find.

People who don't get why a specific example sells within minutes for an astronomical price, simply lack references and understanding of the reasoning behind. For now, the information available has been technical bits and bytes. B1 dial C2 bezel blah blah. That's cool but that not enough to assess the value and that's why we see "outliers" that aren't 😀

I must say I really appreciate having the chance to observe how this market evolves and yes, OF is great 👍

High Hope · Mar 30, 2021

Back in the late 80s - early 90s the market for vintage collector cars exploded out of all proportion, with the finest doubling or more over the course of a year or two. Then the correction came, and meant flippers found themselves badly upside down. The gloomy 90s and Oughts saw the market, already depressed, stagnate at best.

You know what happened? It came roaring back with a vengeance. Those that wanted their classic (enthusiasts) or had the means to watch an investment tank over the course of 20 years (investors) are doing fine, tho there has been another small correction. Top cars are still getting top dollar (just this week a B-J Shelby 350 R Mustang sold for $950,000...not shabby!)

My point is I think that these are cycles, it’s just that the duration can seem to last forever to recover. But I think the best watches and vintage cars will always be in limited demand to some degree, but also experience wild speculation to another degree.

wristpirate · Mar 30, 2021

As has been touched on already the finest examples are still gaining in value and selling for top coin really fast. Everything else is now lingering longer than before.

The vast majority of the market only wants mint condition. It's getting to a point where scrappy watches are becoming great value if you're after a particular reference imo.

I'm a contrarian and chase things that others may shy away from. Where's the fun in chasing the hottest thing right now?

A leveling off of prices is a good thing. A stable market makes buying decisions easier without the fear of the next one you come along will be 10% more.

dsio · Mar 30, 2021

High Hope
Back in the late 80s - early 90s the market for vintage collector cars exploded out of all proportion, with the finest doubling or more over the course of a year or two. Then the correction came, and meant flippers found themselves badly upside down. The gloomy 90s and Oughts saw the market, already depressed, stagnate at best.

You know what happened? It came roaring back with a vengeance. Those that wanted their classic (enthusiasts) or had the means to watch an investment tank over the course of 20 years (investors) are doing fine, tho there has been another small correction. Top cars are still getting top dollar (just this week a B-J Shelby 350 R Mustang sold for $950,000...not shabby!)

My point is I think that these are cycles, it’s just that the duration can seem to last forever to recover. But I think the best watches and vintage cars will always be in limited demand to some degree, but also experience wild speculation to another degree.

I’m still hoping air cooled 911s collapse down to reasonable money, seeing a ‘78 SC with as many crashes as engine rebuilds and a sportomatic box for six figures is pretty shocking.

“Private Watch Sales” recent trends and observations

airansun

JwRosenthal

Dan S

Kiltie

dsio

Shabbaz

dsio

LesXL

MikeMan2727

Dan S

STANDY

Larry S

Syrte

Spacefruit

krogerfoot

dsio

kov

High Hope

wristpirate

dsio

Similar threads

Incoming and Observations of my new 3861 Speedmaster Pro Hesalite

GQ article - Why True Watch Heads Never Set the Time on Their Watches

Thoughts for newer watch collector and white dial watches

New Omega Speedmaster CoAxial - quality issues and observations

Two eBay Ed Whites: Part Three - Conclusions and Observations

The Channel crosser: a Speedmaster’s tale