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BlackTalon
··This Space for RentI’m still hoping air cooled 911s collapse down to reasonable money, seeing a ‘78 SC with as many crashes as engine rebuilds and a sportomatic box for six figures is pretty shocking.
“Private Watch Sales” recent trends and observations
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M'Bob
·The watches themselves are getting a lot of dissection, but this underestimates the effect the Covid crises has had on spending, even amongst the traditionally well-heeled.
I’m in healthcare, and most physicians I know in private practice have suffered a 20-25% hit in revenue due to less patient visits. Yes, there are some fields that are completely remote, and income has not been hit as hard. But many folks just have less disposable income to toss around. And, from some collectors I’ve spoken to, there has been a priority shift: thinking about staying safe, how family and friends are coping, just getting through the day unscathed. There is an unprecedented amount of anxiety and depression about according to my friends in mental health. Watches just may have been bumped down on the importance list.
Now, one could argue: wait a minute, don’t hobbies provide the kind of diversion people look for from life’s unpleasantries? Yes, there may be a number of people still thinking about that fantasy piece, participating in fora, etc. But that big purchase? For many, it will have to wait until life settles down. But...it eventually will, and nice Speedmasters will be just a desirable, if not more so, than before.
I’m in healthcare, and most physicians I know in private practice have suffered a 20-25% hit in revenue due to less patient visits. Yes, there are some fields that are completely remote, and income has not been hit as hard. But many folks just have less disposable income to toss around. And, from some collectors I’ve spoken to, there has been a priority shift: thinking about staying safe, how family and friends are coping, just getting through the day unscathed. There is an unprecedented amount of anxiety and depression about according to my friends in mental health. Watches just may have been bumped down on the importance list.
Now, one could argue: wait a minute, don’t hobbies provide the kind of diversion people look for from life’s unpleasantries? Yes, there may be a number of people still thinking about that fantasy piece, participating in fora, etc. But that big purchase? For many, it will have to wait until life settles down. But...it eventually will, and nice Speedmasters will be just a desirable, if not more so, than before.
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Syrte
·The watches themselves are getting a lot of dissection, but this underestimates the effect the Covid crises has had on spending, even amongst the traditionally well-heeled.
From some collectors I’ve spoken to, there has been a priority shift: thinking about staying safe, how family and friends are coping, just getting through the day unscathed...Watches just may have been bumped down on the importance list.
That would make a lot of sense, and frankly— one might call it “getting your priorities straight”.
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ATWG
·I find these threads interesting, heck, I even started one 4-5 yrs ago outlining all the nice Speedy's in the FS section. Back then, this was emblematic of an immature market with few guardrails, information concentrated to a handful of experts and pre-social media hype evolution. A lot has changed since then, more knowledge is readily available making buyers extremely value focused, IG has been fuel for proliferation of information and the hobby in general.
As stated by other esteemed members, I think there is still strong appetite for high quality watches, regardless of brand. I follow the Rolex market very closely, the perception that all tides lift all boats certainly held true there, BUT, I have noticed measurable slowdown in pieces that are avg or below average both on private and dealer sales.
Buyers can now discern between a relume vs. original dial, or MK3 vs. MK5 GMT dial variants, refinished vs. original case, etc, you get the drift. A nice Radial GMT at $25K-$27K will have a lot more interest and will likely sell much faster than an avg. MK5 GMT priced at $15K. The same analogy can be made of EW's. The nice and rare examples will always command a premium and sell a heck of a lot faster than sub collector grade.
I think this is just the reality of a market maturing. References to air cooled P-cars works the same exact way. I do remember the days of buying nice G50's for sub $25K, last week one sold on Bat for nearly $80K plus 5% buyers premium. Collectors / enthusiasts have come to recognize and appreciate high quality and they're willing to pay for it.
As stated by other esteemed members, I think there is still strong appetite for high quality watches, regardless of brand. I follow the Rolex market very closely, the perception that all tides lift all boats certainly held true there, BUT, I have noticed measurable slowdown in pieces that are avg or below average both on private and dealer sales.
Buyers can now discern between a relume vs. original dial, or MK3 vs. MK5 GMT dial variants, refinished vs. original case, etc, you get the drift. A nice Radial GMT at $25K-$27K will have a lot more interest and will likely sell much faster than an avg. MK5 GMT priced at $15K. The same analogy can be made of EW's. The nice and rare examples will always command a premium and sell a heck of a lot faster than sub collector grade.
I think this is just the reality of a market maturing. References to air cooled P-cars works the same exact way. I do remember the days of buying nice G50's for sub $25K, last week one sold on Bat for nearly $80K plus 5% buyers premium. Collectors / enthusiasts have come to recognize and appreciate high quality and they're willing to pay for it.
Edited:
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bigsom
·On my local watch chat they’re buying up modern watches and Rolex like hotcakes. People buying many watches to get their grail submariner and what have you.
I think what you’re seeing is not related to a larger issue with watches. It’s an issue with the value of vintage speedmasters. I’ve not seen VR take this hit, in fact quite the opposite. Not to mention vintage Seiko values which are at insane levels now (new insane levels to be set?).
It’s been a buyers market for vintage Speedmasters for a long time now. A few standout sales but the great majority have sold for less than what they used to, or just sat stagnant. The market for these watches is tiny compared to VR which is tiny compared to modern watches.
I also think OF is a very small community of collectors. And speedy collectors are a tiny sliver of it. Doesn’t take much for the inflated prices of yesterday to become unpalatable today.
I think what you’re seeing is not related to a larger issue with watches. It’s an issue with the value of vintage speedmasters. I’ve not seen VR take this hit, in fact quite the opposite. Not to mention vintage Seiko values which are at insane levels now (new insane levels to be set?).
It’s been a buyers market for vintage Speedmasters for a long time now. A few standout sales but the great majority have sold for less than what they used to, or just sat stagnant. The market for these watches is tiny compared to VR which is tiny compared to modern watches.
I also think OF is a very small community of collectors. And speedy collectors are a tiny sliver of it. Doesn’t take much for the inflated prices of yesterday to become unpalatable today.
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Spacefruit
··Prolific Speedmaster HoarderWell after all this talk I bought an Ed white.
It’s a one owner bought originally in Mexico and has a genuine original feel all through.
the trick will be keeping that one owner feel so that means cleaning the crystal and servicing. Probably find a salvage strap for it.
just saying, the right watch at the right price still sells.
It’s a one owner bought originally in Mexico and has a genuine original feel all through.
the trick will be keeping that one owner feel so that means cleaning the crystal and servicing. Probably find a salvage strap for it.
just saying, the right watch at the right price still sells.
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JwRosenthal
·Well after all this talk I bought an Ed white.
... the right watch at the right price still sells.
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Walrus
·For a lot of us who worked during the shutdowns we were getting a “hazard duty” stipend. I did use a few of mine to purchase a couple watches, nothing real big ticket but I was able to get 2 or three things I probably wouldn’t have had I not been getting that extra money. Now that’s ending in April. I put some towards some home improvement projects as well. Of course I did save some. As people lose that bonus pay and concerns arise about unemployment and the end of evictions moratoriums I’m a bit concerned how things will play out. I hope things work out well but we do have a bill coming due and I imagine it is a concern for many.
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Medinatalzahra
·I would also add that we are just now heading into the real auction season for 2021. Often, you will find the market pick up after prime examples post some big numbers. So, while some may feel we are in a lull right now, let's revisit by summer. I am going to venture a guess that we will see things pick up... M
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pdxleaf
·Interesting read. Thanks to all who contributed.
Perhaps there are fewer people in the economic level that can afford a collection of watches that are in the tens of thousands. As much as i love a beautiful condition 321 speedy, i have been able to find unusual models in fantastic condition for 1 to 5k. While a really nice condition speedmaster is hard to find, there are still a lot of these references around.
I still get butterflys when I see an Ed White, but there's a similar feeling when i find a beautiful condition Gallet or a Seamaster 321 or a nice Zodiac or a like new Oceanographer Snorkel, all which can be had for the price of a poor Ed White and which are more difficult to find than a speedmaster.
Part of this hobby(?) Is the hunt. When the quality goes down and there are a lot available and the prices are higher, I suspect people look at other watches.
But speedys will never not have a following.
Btw, 911s aren't going to get cheaper. This one will soon have a place in my garage if it checks out. Fingers crossed.
Perhaps there are fewer people in the economic level that can afford a collection of watches that are in the tens of thousands. As much as i love a beautiful condition 321 speedy, i have been able to find unusual models in fantastic condition for 1 to 5k. While a really nice condition speedmaster is hard to find, there are still a lot of these references around.
I still get butterflys when I see an Ed White, but there's a similar feeling when i find a beautiful condition Gallet or a Seamaster 321 or a nice Zodiac or a like new Oceanographer Snorkel, all which can be had for the price of a poor Ed White and which are more difficult to find than a speedmaster.
Part of this hobby(?) Is the hunt. When the quality goes down and there are a lot available and the prices are higher, I suspect people look at other watches.
But speedys will never not have a following.
Btw, 911s aren't going to get cheaper. This one will soon have a place in my garage if it checks out. Fingers crossed.
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JwRosenthal
·Interesting read. Thanks to all who contributed.
Perhaps there are fewer people in the economic level that can afford a collection of watches that are in the tens of thousands. As much as i love a beautiful condition 321 speedy, i have been able to find unusual models in fantastic condition for 1 to 5k. While a really nice condition speedmaster is hard to find, there are still a lot of these references around.
I still get butterflys when I see an Ed White, but there's a similar feeling when i find a beautiful condition Gallet or a Seamaster 321 or a nice Zodiac or a like new Oceanographer Snorkel, all which can be had for the price of a poor Ed White and which are more difficult to find than a speedmaster.
Part of this hobby(?) Is the hunt. When the quality goes down and there are a lot available and the prices are higher, I suspect people look at other watches.
But speedys will never not have a following.
Btw, 911s aren't going to get cheaper. This one will soon have a place in my garage if it checks out. Fingers crossed.
Edited:
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Wryfox
·I propose that the 50th Apollo 11 Anniversary excitement and massive media blitz for 2 years has produced Omega Speedmaster Fatigue in the market('OSF', yeah I just made that up). Everyone that wanted a vintage speedy got one. Everyone else that was interested but didn't pull the trigger are now over it and moving on.
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cvalue13
·Sorry if I missed the previous mention, but:
Even if vintage Speedy’s are softening of late, modern Speedy’s seem in high demand.
If so, theories noted above would need to account for this distinction. Including that the latter may be taking market from the former.
Even if vintage Speedy’s are softening of late, modern Speedy’s seem in high demand.
If so, theories noted above would need to account for this distinction. Including that the latter may be taking market from the former.
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Redwes25
·I find these threads interesting, heck, I even started one 4-5 yrs ago outlining all the nice Speedy's in the FS section. Back then, this was emblematic of an immature market with few guardrails, information concentrated to a handful of experts and pre-social media hype evolution. A lot has changed since then, more knowledge is readily available making buyers extremely value focused, IG has been fuel for proliferation of information and the hobby in general.
As stated by other esteemed members, I think there is still strong appetite for high quality watches, regardless of brand. I follow the Rolex market very closely, the perception that all tides lift all boats certainly held true there, BUT, I have noticed measurable slowdown in pieces that are avg or below average both on private and dealer sales.
Buyers can now discern between a relume vs. original dial, or MK3 vs. MK5 GMT dial variants, refinished vs. original case, etc, you get the drift. A nice Radial GMT at $25K-$27K will have a lot more interest and will likely sell much faster than an avg. MK5 GMT priced at $15K. The same analogy can be made of EW's. The nice and rare examples will always command a premium and sell a heck of a lot faster than sub collector grade.
I think this is just the reality of a market maturing. References to air cooled P-cars works the same exact way. I do remember the days of buying nice G50's for sub $25K, last week one sold on Bat for nearly $80K plus 5% buyers premium. Collectors / enthusiasts have come to recognize and appreciate high quality and they're willing to pay for it.
Has IG really helped spread information? I agree it has brought a lot of people to the hobby but I don't think it has created any real additional information or scholarship about watches. There are a ton of great watches to look at but no really good informatoin about watches and what is a correct high quality example. Though it would have you believe that every dealer is selling out like crazy and in many cases they are showing examples that have issues.
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eugeneandresson
·Has IG really helped spread information?
I would say rather ‘subliminal programming’. Some guys post ‘info’ but mostly it’s seeing the same regurgitation of watches that help program people to buy them more (speaking from experience 🤦 )
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kov
·Has IG really helped spread information?
Maybe not spread information as such. Because most people check the pictures, like and scroll without reading the captions. But it has certainly helped to train the eyes by making a massive database of pictures handy. I still believe that the most difficult skill to gain in this hobby is to know what to look at/for.
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Redwes25
·I would say rather ‘subliminal programming’. Some guys post ‘info’ but mostly it’s seeing the same regurgitation of watches that help program people to buy them more (speaking from experience 🤦 )
You said it better then me. It is almost like those handful of Rolex sport models just keep getting repeated over and over as the thing everyone needs to own.
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ATWG
·There is just a glut of information now available, one medium being IG. If you watch some of the IG live events, a lot can be learned if you're a novice. Same can be said about YouTube channels.
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scapa
·DBM
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