October 5th 2020 - Snoopy Celebration

chadeaux · Nov 29, 2021

cvalue13
Well, an OB manager just told me that they are only making ~5,000 Snoopy, and that all U.S. allocations (if not deliveries) have already been completed.

This of course runs contrary to other rumors, etc., but I thought worth sharing as a datum that in the coming months will either prove OB managers have no clue, or instead that prior rumors were off.

This was my usual OB, a rather large one in Texas, but not my usual manager contact (who has since left the company). I called to order a Bond NATO.

Most of the pieces in US have not been delivered, although it’s true that they are officially allocated to the specific customer.
Regarding the number of pieces that will be produced, they will never disclose that number, it could be 5000 it could be 10000… nobody knows.
Nobody will never know.

Twocats · Nov 29, 2021

chadeaux
Most of the pieces in US have not been delivered, although it’s true that they are officially allocated to the specific customer.
Regarding the number of pieces that will be produced, they will never disclose that number, it could be 5000 it could be 10000… nobody knows.
Nobody will never know.

My OB told me that the majority of Snoopy's first deliveries have ended up in Asia.

On the FOIS thread there is a member who received serial number 16XXX of a production run of 15000 watches so I would tend to agree with your production number statement.

cvalue13 · Nov 29, 2021

chadeaux
Most of the pieces in US have not been delivered, although it’s true that they are officially allocated to the specific customer.
Regarding the number of pieces that will be produced, they will never disclose that number, it could be 5000 it could be 10000… nobody knows.
Nobody will never know.

I mean, that’s your opinion based in information you’ve heard; I’m just reporting the opinion of a manager at an OB - just adding hers to the discussion.

From where I sit, I’m equally open to either of your opinions being equally wrong.

By no means to I think an OB manager’s opinion is infallible - far from it. But she seemed very sure that Omega was not making more than 5000 Snoopy, they’ve been produced already, and are allocated already to all OBs/ADs.

cvalue13 · Nov 29, 2021

chadeaux
r, it could be 5000 it could be 10000…

Interestingly on this point, she said that numbered editions were a “nightmare” for OBs and Omega because, for example, some people are superstitious regarding numbers, while other customers that believe themselves VIP will demand certain numbers.

While I can’t believe this alone would motivate the sole reason for an unnumbered “limited production” approach, I can certainly see there being some at least tangential truth to *a* reason for avoiding numbered editions.

texasmade · Nov 29, 2021

cvalue13
Interestingly on this point, she said that numbered editions were a “nightmare” for OBs and Omega because, for example, some people are superstitious regarding numbers, while other customers that believe themselves VIP will demand certain numbers.

While I can’t believe this alone would motivate the sole reason for an unnumbered “limited production” approach, I can certainly see there being some at least tangential truth to *a* reason for avoiding numbered editions.

I can only imagine 8, 88, 888, or 8888( if enough were produced) being in really high demand for the Chinese market with 8888 being the most in-demand for a super VIP Chinese customer.

chadeaux · Nov 29, 2021

cvalue13
I mean, that’s your opinion based in information you’ve heard; I’m just reporting the opinion of a manager at an OB - just adding hers to the discussion.

From where I sit, I’m equally open to either of your opinions being equally wrong.

By no means to I think an OB manager’s opinion is infallible - far from it. But she seemed very sure that Omega was not making more than 5000 Snoopy, they’ve been produced already, and are allocated already to all OBs/ADs.

Absolutely, opinion based on what the OB people told me.
Still they will not commit saying a definite number, for obvious reasons. So, I'm not sure where the estimate of 5000 is coming from.
Since the mantra is that we will never know, they might be 4000 or 20000, the point doesn't change.

The element of confusion is that the allocation based on a deposit is valid mostly for the US market. How they are establishing official allocation for the reference in Europe is extremely confusing. So those estimate of timing, pieces, allocation are even more variable than what you can get from the OB in US.
I believe will will have a better sense of the distribution in January, when the OBs in US should receive the update regarding the 2022 deliveries.

140dave · Nov 29, 2021

texasmade
I can only imagine 8, 88, 888, or 8888( if enough were produced) being in really high demand for the Chinese market with 8888 being the most in-demand for a super VIP Chinese customer.

The opposite is also true if they ship any 4's to China, no one would want to buy #44, 444 or 4444 or anything in the culturally unlucky 400 series, 4000 series etc.

YY77 · Nov 29, 2021

140dave
The opposite is also true if they ship any 4's to China, no one would want to buy #44, 444 or 4444 or anything in the culturally unlucky 400 series, 4000 series etc.

In the Netherlands the car registration authority allows for a license plate number on a new car to be reapplied when it has a 4 in it, provided the customer is Asian. I have had to reapply on several occasions but now I (working at a car distributor) just make sure to apply for a few other cars to know what the following number will be and make sure I'm in the clear.

Evitzee · Nov 29, 2021

It's ALL speculation, no one knows, and will never know, how many were made. I'll throw out another estimate based on history. For the Apollo 50th there were <1,000 sent to the US out of 6,969, so less than 15%. There have been rumors of about 1,900 deposits in the US so if past is prologue that might indicate a worldwide total of around 13,000 pieces. I have to believe they will make a lot more Snoopy's compared to the Apollo 11 based on the hysteria over the last year. A run of 15,000 or so over four years sounds about right in my view. Again, we will never know.

Hotshot14 · Nov 29, 2021

texasmade
I’ve heard the exact opposite that Omega doesn’t plan to make much more than 5k units. Majority will be made the first 2 years and then production will be throttled down.

My guess is they’ll make around 7000-7500 over 5 years. That kind of puts it in line with the Apollo 11 50th at 6969 and Spectre at 7007.

This is very similar to what I heard from Large OB that aligns with this, back when I got my watch.
-Watch will be produced for 2 years or so at full capacity, going to specific clients directed by Swatch Group (not Omega). After 2 years, they will effectively “end” production but keep making a small amount for VIP clients who missed out on Snoopy (either new or existing). This is a major lesson that they learned from 45th drop.
-Store reps also stated the ~2500 per year number. So around 5k give or take.
-As it’s been stated before, paid deposit technically means you lock in a watch, but if the watch gets discontinued, you will get your money back and no watch.

cvalue13 · Nov 29, 2021

H Hotshot14
Watch will be produced for 2 years or so at full capacity, going to specific clients directed by Swatch Group (not Omega). After 2 years, they will effectively “end” production but keep making a small amount for VIP clients who missed out on Snoopy (either new or existing). This is a major lesson that they learned from 45th drop.

which of course also aligns with what this OB manager just told me this morning

Evitzee
A run of 15,000 or so over four years sounds about right in my view. Again, we will never know.

I mean, we won’t know-know down to the number, but if next year there are essentially no further deliveries if Snoopys we’ll “know” that it wasn’t 15k over 4 years

And while it’s true that it’s all speculation, there’s an intrigue and valence to information coming from an OB manager and being shared with a client. again, not an because it’s infallible information, but instead because at some point they’re going to have better info than we do.

This one said they’re only making “about” 5000, they’ve already made them, and they’ve already been allocated to the remaining buyers who will receive one (even if not delivered yet).

If instead 6 months into next year we’re still seeing a Snoopy a month delivered here, we’ll know this OB info was hogwash.

chadeaux · Nov 30, 2021

cvalue13
which of course also aligns with what this OB manager just told me this morning

I mean, we won’t know-know down to the number, but if next year there are essentially no further deliveries if Snoopys we’ll “know” that it wasn’t 15k over 4 years

And while it’s true that it’s all speculation, there’s an intrigue and valence to information coming from an OB manager and being shared with a client. again, not an because it’s infallible information, but instead because at some point they’re going to have better info than we do.

This one said they’re only making “about” 5000, they’ve already made them, and they’ve already been allocated to the remaining buyers who will receive one (even if not delivered yet).

If instead 6 months into next year we’re still seeing a Snoopy a month delivered here, we’ll know this OB info was hogwash.

I’m not sure the estimate based on the time of delivery would work.
A couple of weeks ago I was at the OB, they will update the list in January with the deliveries happening in 2022, but they told me that their estimate was to have some of the deliveries going into 2023 and potentially 2024. This is for customers with the deposit in full.
They were basing this estimate on the number of Snoopies that they are receiving monthly.
Although they told me there is some variability and they expect that 2022 will be a bit better in terms of number of watches received.

STANDY · Nov 30, 2021

They had close to 20k just after release and the CEO at this point said they will try to get everyone who wanted one a watch.
Has been mentioned before they will make more than the 50th which was 10k

Speaking with someone 😗 😉 I was offered to go on the list in August if I didn’t mind waiting to 2024-2025. Also I wouldn’t be any chance if I said NO at this time.

My prediction is at 200-400 a month that is about what is going out.. for 5 years (so ending in 2025) you end up with 24000 watches.
Non limited production for several years has always been quoted by Omega.

nicolamilton · Nov 30, 2021

STANDY
They had close to 20k just after release and the CEO at this point said they will try to get everyone who wanted one a watch.
Has been mentioned before they will make more than the 50th which was 10k

Speaking with someone 😗 😉 I was offered to go on the list in August if I didn’t mind waiting to 2024-2025. Also I wouldn’t be any chance if I said NO at this time.

My prediction is at 200 a month that is about what is going out.. for 5 years (so ending in 2025) you end up with 24000 watches.
Non limited production for several years has always been quoted by Omega.

According to your calculations: 200x12x5= 12000, no 24000.
My bet would be 5/6000.

chadeaux · Nov 30, 2021

STANDY
They had close to 20k just after release and the CEO at this point said they will try to get everyone who wanted one a watch.
Has been mentioned before they will make more than the 50th which was 10k

Speaking with someone 😗 😉 I was offered to go on the list in August if I didn’t mind waiting to 2024-2025. Also I wouldn’t be any chance if I said NO at this time.

My prediction is at 200 a month that is about what is going out.. for 5 years (so ending in 2025) you end up with 24000 watches.
Non limited production for several years has always been quoted by Omega.

nice, thanks for sharing!
I really like the Omega strategy. I honestly don’t care about the number, it could even be 50.000…
The important thing is that the flipping rate is controlled and offer/demand balance is in good shape.
If they manage to keep doing that, this will prove to be a great reference!

TolBooth · Nov 30, 2021

Supposedly only 10 delivered in all of Canada so far, all to the only OB we have in Vancouver. I'm on a list with a local AD, so can't wait to see it in 2045... or is that wishful thinking for us Canadians? 😗

texasmade · Nov 30, 2021

STANDY
They had close to 20k just after release and the CEO at this point said they will try to get everyone who wanted one a watch.
Has been mentioned before they will make more than the 50th which was 10k

Speaking with someone 😗 😉 I was offered to go on the list in August if I didn’t mind waiting to 2024-2025. Also I wouldn’t be any chance if I said NO at this time.

My prediction is at 200-400 a month that is about what is going out.. for 5 years (so ending in 2025) you end up with 24000 watches.
Non limited production for several years has always been quoted by Omega.

Of that 20k, how many will still be interested in 2 years, 3 years, or 5 years? I'm guessing that initial list will be whittled down quite a bit.

Non limited production for several years doesn't mean unlimited production.

STANDY · Nov 30, 2021

nicolamilton
According to your calculations: 200x12x5= 12000, no 24000.
My bet would be 5/6000.

Meant to put 200-400 a month. (fixed my post)

TolBooth
Supposedly only 10 delivered in all of Canada so far, all to the only OB we have in Vancouver. I'm on a list with a local AD, so can't wait to see it in 2045... or is that wishful thinking for us Canadians? 😗

Wow Sydney had 4 or 5 the first drop….and I know 3 Australians myself that have theirs already since that.

STANDY · Nov 30, 2021

texasmade
Of that 20k, how many will still be interested in 2 years, 3 years, or 5 years? I'm guessing that initial list will be whittled down quite a bit.

Non limited production for several years doesn't mean unlimited production.

20k isn’t unlimited. Like everything this is world wide. So many times do people bang on about certain things like full deposits that isn’t a world wide condition.
They sold 2012 Speedy Tuesdays in 4 hours online.

Do you want me to believe they are only making 5000 of these like quoted below

H Hotshot14
This is very similar to what I heard from Large OB that aligns with this, back when I got my watch.
-Watch will be produced for 2 years or so at full capacity, going to specific clients directed by Swatch Group (not Omega). After 2 years, they will effectively “end” production but keep making a small amount for VIP clients who missed out on Snoopy (either new or existing). This is a major lesson that they learned from 45th drop.
-Store reps also stated the ~2500 per year number. So around 5k give or take.
-As it’s been stated before, paid deposit technically means you lock in a watch, but if the watch gets discontinued, you will get your money back and no watch.

My guess is 20k and yes it’s a guess. These were blow Omega out of the water thinking 10k was enough and then the CEO mentioned he would produce for several years to try and get the 20k ordered people a watch.
This is good enough for me to guess 20k

chadeaux · Nov 30, 2021

It could be 1 Million watches.
It doesn't change the business model, that shifted from Limited Edition to Limited Rate of Production.
Omega created a "white face Daytona/ Sub LV hybrid": it's a steel Chrono, it's a 50 years commemoration, it is not readily available, it has a lot of requests, it has a premium, it has a reasonable listing price if you can buy it at retail.
How many they are making and for how long?
It's not really important!