October 5th 2020 - Snoopy Celebration

Archer · Aug 4, 2021

I don't think that it was a limited production model is a secret, and that Omega wasn't going to deliver them all at once - that's why they said not to worry and everyone would get one that wanted one.

So we are basing this "strategy" idea one the comment made by some Omega retailer, that they expected people to drop off the waiting list.

notchrishansen · Aug 4, 2021

My guess is some people at Omega is probably getting off to this thread… scrolling through and pleasuring themselves to deposit complaints and people arguing about their strategy. I have no proof they're doing this, but I have no proof they're not.

chadeaux · Aug 4, 2021

Archer
I don't think that it was a limited production model is a secret, and that Omega wasn't going to deliver them all at once - that's why they said not to worry and everyone would get one that wanted one.

So we are basing this "strategy" idea one the comment made by some Omega retailer, that they expected people to drop off the waiting list.

I've asked specifics about delivery rate at that time, and they told me that their expectation was more or less like the 321. So extremely low, considering that they had allocated only 2 pieces at that time.
They expected long waiting from the get go, that's why they prepped the associates and they delivered info to the clients.

Of course this was not printed on promotional material with the Omega logo saying:
"Snoopy 50th put your money and you will have to wait a lot!"

Strategy or not, this is exactly what is happening. I don't doubt Covid/production issues have some role, but this allocation rate is for the most part planned. And good for Omega, I don't see it as a bad thing!

Archer · Aug 4, 2021

chadeaux
I've asked specifics about delivery rate at that time, and they told me that their expectation was more or less like the 321. So extremely low, considering that they had allocated only 2 pieces at that time.
They expected long waiting from the get go, that's why they prepped the associates and they delivered info to the clients.

Of course this was not printed on promotional material with the Omega logo saying:
"Snoopy 50th put your money and you will have to wait a lot!"

Strategy or not, this is exactly what is happening. I don't doubt Covid/production issues have some role, but this allocation rate is for the most part planned. And good for Omega, I don't see it as a bad thing!

Yes, all of this was known up front. This is why I don't understand the comments that Omega is playing some sort of game...not much of a game if we all knew it was happening from the start.

DT1066 · Aug 4, 2021

Archer
I don't think that it was a limited production model is a secret, and that Omega wasn't going to deliver them all at once - that's why they said not to worry and everyone would get one that wanted one.

So we are basing this "strategy" idea one the comment made by some Omega retailer, that they expected people to drop off the waiting list.

What is it with you? You always think your better than everyone here just because your profile says 'Omega Qualified Watchmaker' all bow down

Archer · Aug 4, 2021

taz101
What is it with you? You always think your better than everyone here just because your profile says 'Omega Qualified Watchmaker' all bow down

Lack of facts. That's what it's about.

chadeaux · Aug 4, 2021

Archer
Yes, all of this was known up front. This is why I don't understand the comments that Omega is playing some sort of game...not much of a game if we all knew it was happening from the start.

Then we are on the same page!
It's a long wait, but this was not unexpected.

I believe that the slow rate of production/delivery coupled with the preferential allocation to historical customers/big spenders is what is perceived as "the game".
This is not exactly the same as saying whoever wants one will get one.
Whoever wants one will get one if: it's on the list, has a deposit (in US), and better if there is some history with the brand to backup the position.
I mean, these are objective points. Nobody can deny them.

Archer · Aug 4, 2021

chadeaux
Then we are on the same page!
It's a long wait, but this was not unexpected.

I'm not quite sure what you mean really. The narrative that I have been refuting (or at least questioning that there is any evidence of) is this sort of thing:

Bp1000
I can only assume, they are playing the hype game by trickle feeding the market in year 1.

stevec14
I suspect it’s omega playing the hard to get game. As soon as it gets easy and the market value goes down a bit, quite a lot of the demand subsides.I suspect omega know that and are acting accordingly.

We all knew up front this was going to be a slow rollout, so on that point I don't believe I have disagreed.

chadeaux · Aug 4, 2021

Archer
I'm not quite sure what you mean really. The narrative that I have been refuting (or at least questioning that there is any evidence of) is this sort of thing:

We all knew up front this was going to be a slow rollout, so on that point I don't believe I have disagreed.

Well, there are some indications that they have changed the way they approached the market with this reference.

They didn't limit the number of pieces (change in the model from prior milestone references)
They made essentially a "sport steel piece", keeping the price high but low enough to be considered accessible.
They created the official list and the list to get on the official list.
They don't give much information about the expected delivery, even with watches payed in full.
They designed a very slow allocation system and planned a limited rate of production.
They introduced the history with the brand to give priority for allocation.

These are all the ingredients that you need to shake to make the "hype cocktail".
I guess this is the main point we need to agree on.

Archer · Aug 4, 2021

chadeaux
I guess this is the main point we need to agree on.

We can agree to disagree certainly. I don't believe there's any actual evidence that Omega is intentionally rolling these out slowly, in order to build hype.

Previous rollouts caused a lot of hard feelings (for reference, see very angry reactions on ST1, ST2, and the previous Snoopy, in particular in certain time zones), and so Omega is trying to do this in a more planned manner than the previous free for all method. People have taken this to mean there is some devious plan at play to build hype, in order to not...wait for it....crash secondary market values. 😕

Errr, okay, that's not really Omega's playbook. And since the demand is obviously very high as you and others have pointed out, it doesn't make a lot of sense to me why they would need to do that - they will sell every one of these they make, and they knew that before they even released it. None of this hype building conspiracy really makes any sense. They did all this to appease the people they pissed off preciously,. so rolling it out so slowly that is pisses off more people seems counterproductive to me.

I've attempted to point out reasons why there could be issues with the watches being made (didn't even mention the issues with the 3861 movement that might be contributing), but no one seems to want to take any of that in, so people will believe what fits their own personal narratives on this I suppose.

Cheers, Al

DT1066 · Aug 4, 2021

chadeaux
Well, there are some indications that they have changed the way they approached the market with this reference.

They didn't limit the number of pieces (change in the model from prior milestone references)
They made essentially a "sport steel piece", keeping the price high but low enough to be considered accessible.
They created the official list and the list to get on the official list.
They don't give much information about the expected delivery, even with watches payed in full.
They designed a very slow allocation system and planned a limited rate of production.
They introduced the history with the brand to give priority for allocation.

These are all the ingredients that you need to shake to make the "hype cocktail".
I guess this is the main point we need to agree on.

agreed

YY77 · Aug 4, 2021

taz101
agreed

Is this the one you flipped or a second one you're keeping?

chadeaux · Aug 4, 2021

Archer
We can agree to disagree certainly. I don't believe there's any actual evidence that Omega is intentionally rolling these out slowly, in order to build hype.
Cheers, Al

Hey I'm all for it, Ron Burgundy style!
Agree to disagree.

I say this was designed to be extremely slow and not limited in order to maintain high desirability and help pushing the entire brand up.
They tested this idea with the 321.
They applied in full force with the Snoopy 50th.

I can see there might be a combination of reasons that is making Omega going this way. But It's very difficult not to see that there is also an obvious commercial reason to do that. Unless they do moves that have impact on their core business without evaluating the repercussions they are gonna have.
I believe that with this reference they are in the position they wanted to be, more or less.
Furthermore, they are not displeased at all about the discussions, the hype, the maintaining of the value etc... because this is exactly how this release has been designed from the very beginning.

YY77 · Aug 4, 2021

chadeaux
Hey I'm all for it, Ron Burgundy style!
Agree to disagree.

I say this was designed to be extremely slow and not limited in order to maintain high desirability and help pushing the entire brand up.
They tested this idea with the 321.
They applied in full force with the Snoopy 50th.

I can see there might be a combination of reasons that is making Omega going this way. But It's very difficult not to see that there is also an obvious commercial reason to do that. Unless they do moves that have impact on their core business without evaluating the repercussions they are gonna have.
I believe that with this reference they are in the position they wanted to be, more or less.
Furthermore, they are not displeased at all about the discussions, the hype, the maintaining of the value etc... because this is exactly how this release has been designed from the very beginning.

Unless there is something in writing from Omega HQ stating this, this is speculaties in my book.

rhr321 · Aug 4, 2021

I believe the watch is hard to make and they are capacity constrained. We are in a pandemic, the watch has some extra details that take time, and they have to manufacture all of their other watches. I also believe they do not want to make a zillion of these so that they are everywhere, they do want it to be limited production so that it is exclusive.

I do not believe there is a conspiracy to up hype and leak them out even slower.

I also believe they are doing everything they can to make it as fair as possible. An oversubscribed release is not new, previous Snoopy, ST1, ST2 etc… as Al pointed out. I actually think they are handling this better. Because of what happened to Snoopy 2 prices, this release was always going to have speculators vs. people that just love the watch and love Speedmasters.

chadeaux · Aug 4, 2021

R rhr321
I believe the watch is hard to make and they are capacity constrained. We are in a pandemic, the watch has some extra details that take time, and they have to manufacture all of their other watches. I also believe they do not want to make a zillion of these so that they are everywhere, they do want it to be limited production so that it is exclusive.

I do not believe there is a conspiracy to up hype and leak them out even slower.

I also believe they are doing everything they can to make it as fair as possible. An oversubscribed release is not new, previous Snoopy, ST1, ST2 etc… as Al pointed out. I actually think they are handling this better. Because of what happened to Snoopy 2 prices, this release was always going to have speculators vs. people that just love the watch and love Speeemasters.

I believe there is only one misconception here: I don't think there is any "conspiracy theory"!
The fact that they wanted this limited production and "hard to get" was stated from the beginning and confirmed by the CEO.

They wanted to create a reference that is exclusive, I agree!
It's a luxury item, that it will never be available on display for purchase and that if you ask an AD or OB about getting on the list the laugh at you.
How to we call this?
Can we be a little bit objective?

ps: and I'm not critical. I just call things with their name!

Archer · Aug 4, 2021

chadeaux
I believe there is only one misconception here: I don't think there is any "conspiracy theory"!
The fact that they wanted this limited production and "hard to get" was stated from the beginning and confirmed by the CEO.

They wanted to create a reference that is exclusive, I agree!
It's a luxury item, that it will never be available on display for purchase and that if you ask an AD or OB about getting on the list the laugh at you.
How to we call this?
Can we be a little bit objective?

ps: and I'm not critical. I just call things with their name!

You joined here in January, so I'm not sure if you had the benefit of being here when the previous releases were done, and how poorly that went over. With that perspective, I can't really agree that Omega is rolling this out slowly in order to build hype. The hype was at it's peak when the watch was released, just like the 321. What follows after that with a slow rollout is moaning and complaining, as this thread illustrates quite well.

Of course a few will capitalize on this, and certainly want it to be hyped, so they can sell the watches they apparently "bought for a relative" who didn't want it (cough cough) for a profit. There is a lot more going on in this thread than I think you realize.

chadeaux · Aug 4, 2021

Archer
You joined here in January, so I'm not sure if you had the benefit of being here when the previous releases were done, and how poorly that went over. With that perspective, I can't really agree that Omega is rolling this out slowly in order to build hype. The hype was at it's peak when the watch was released, just like the 321. What follows after that with a slow rollout is moaning and complaining, as this thread illustrates quite well.

Of course a few will capitalize on this, and certainly want it to be hyped, so they can sell the watches they apparently "bought for a relative" who didn't want it (cough cough) for a profit. There is a lot more going on in this thread than I think you realize.

I realize that flippers have to push a certain narrative...
I joined in January but not I was not born yesterday 😉

I genuinely think Omega is approaching this reference applying a quite different model, otherwise they would have done the usual LE that the market was expecting at earlier stages.
So far it seems we are heading for the "hot steel model". Anyway, time will tell and frankly I like the watch... so hyped or not, just hope to get it one day.

Archer · Aug 4, 2021

chadeaux
I genuinely think Omega is approaching this reference applying a quite different model, otherwise they would have done the usual LE that the market was expecting at earlier stages.

I agree, but not for the reasons you believe.

Anyway, it was fun.

Cheers, Al

Evitzee · Aug 4, 2021

Back in the early 90's there was a huge Swatch watch bubble where $40 plastic watches were being sold for hundreds and, sometimes, thousands of dollars. The problem was insiders and wholesalers were shuffling stock to the secondary market so the public couldn't get the Swatch they wanted even though they were made in the tens of thousands in an automated assembly process. Nicholas Hayek was really getting flak from dealers and the public, his view was everyone should be able to get the Swatch of their choice although it might take a little hunting and patience. Swatch developed all kinds of systems to try to democratize the system through lotteries (Sam Francis model), come in one day to pick up a coupon and then return on release day to pick it up (Chandelier), joining the Swatch Collector Club to get the limited editions, limiting releases to Swatch Boutiques, and other ideas were tried. No one was happy in having millions of Swatch buyers frustrated by not being able to get new releases. Although they were selling tons of watches Swatch was getting a lot of negative publicity.

So Swatch Group has good knowledge of how marketing works, they aren't dummies. The ST1 and ST2 were internet efforts that didn't work out all that well due to time zone differences and overloaded website crashes leaving many people watchless and unhappy, but the Apollo 11 50th editions were marketed pretty smoothly and if you wanted one you could get one. The Apollo 8 for all intents and purposes is a limited release and is generally available with a little patience although no one knows how many are being made. The first two Snoopy's were just watches that went crazy in the secondary market for reasons not foreseen by Omega, so the latest release was tightened up but it is still way over wanted. It really doesn't suit Omega's interest to string this gimmick out for years and years by dribbling out watches in onesies and twosies. There is ALWAYS another future release in the pipeline and having to make Snoopy's for years to come just isn't something Omega would want to do. Fish starts smelling after three days and we are probably in the second day now.

Covid has had some impact I'm sure, and who knows about these teething issues with the 3861, and possible third party supplier problems. One or two missing pieces means you can't complete the watch, just look at the chip shortage and what effect it has had on the world vehicle markets, trying to buy a new car is an exercise in futility these days.

I just can't see Omega HQ planning this to restrict supply to an absurdly low level as a way to make the brand more valuable in the long run, or to compete with Rolex. Publicity is good until it turns negative and would be buyers turn on the company. It can, and does, happen. Any brand can be damaged through missteps made by the company. Conspiracies are naturally intriguing, but usually hollow.

Meanwhile we are at 199 pages and counting.