Musings on the strength of the vintage watch market, e.g., Speedmasters…

fibonacci · Oct 31, 2021

There are several different arguments being put forward in this thread:

1. Interest in vintage watches has declined.

2. Prices of vintage watches have declined.

3. Interest in vintage watches has declined relative to modern watches.

4. Fewer high quality vintage watches are making it to market.

I don't have total confidence in any of these, but from my perspective, that of just another collector, #3 and #4 seem true while #1 and #2 do not. If anyone has data or anecdotes suggesting otherwise they would be interesting to see.

dsio · Oct 31, 2021

fibonacci
There are several different arguments being put forward in this thread:

1. Interest in vintage watches has declined.

2. Prices of vintage watches have declined.

3. Interest in vintage watches has declined relative to modern watches.

4. Fewer high quality vintage watches are making it to market.

I don't have total confidence in any of these, but from my perspective, that of just another collector, #3 and #4 seem true while #1 and #2 do not. If anyone has data or anecdotes suggesting otherwise they would be interesting to see.

I’d agree with that assessment, I genuinely believe the main reason for a decrease in vintage is due to being priced out of the market rather than there being a genuine lack of interest.

I’d say some of the modern watch interest has now gone from a bubble to tulip mania and hopefully when it pops a whole lot of speculators will get burned badly, while in the interim I’d like to hope we can push genuine consumers away from that by highlighting better models and means of spending money in the omega world both vintage and modern.

I’d like some sanity to return to those ultra hot models and for some long overlooked ones to be noticed and hopefully open discussion helps bring that about over time.

M'Bob · Oct 31, 2021

felsby
@M'Bob Why is there a muted response to a nice Speedy?
For my own part: they have been ridiculously expensive since I started collecting 5 years ago. I can have so many nice original fifties Ω's for the price of one Speedy that looks like all the other speedies, unless you happen to know what a DON bezel is and what it means for the price. The Speedy discussion and prices reminds me of stamp collecting, where a printing difference means 10 times value. I am not interested in that.

You may be confusing price increase with interest and discussion. I believe I noted that fine examples continue to bring strong prices. But the middle market has slumped, and in general, there is just less excitement and back-and-forth regarding the nuances of even really nice examples that get posted. It’s like life fatigue has spilled over into vintage watch collecting.

As JW has pointed out, modern Rolex is an outlier, so can’t really be figured in to the discussion.

Here’s another question: does the drop in the middle of the market reflect the growing world-wide income disparity? Put another way: those with very deep pockets, with incomes that are mostly immune to the occasional economic swings, tend to make purchases reflecting their personal perceived status. For example: if you fancy yourself as a “heavy-hitter,” how much esteem are you going to garner from your peer group with this fine watch:

Super high quality, larger wearable size for its day than typical, a solid gold dial, and fabulous, understated elegance. I haven’t followed prices on these Centenary’s for a while, but I bet you can find a really clean example for under $5,000.

Now, I know it’s not a sport watch, and that the fashion lately has been towards those rather than dress, so let’s put that aside for the moment.

But would Mr./Ms. Deep Pockets accrue a lot of bragging rights showing this rather than a PP ref. 3919 to the gang at the country club?

There is no way I could now afford some of the watches I bought 30 years ago. So if I were jumping into the game now, and was lusting after that near-pristine cal. 321 Speedmaster that is still being sought after, what would I do? Buy a crap example for cheap that wouldn’t scratch the itch? Buy a great example of something like the Centenary above, that is getting shrinking interest and few seem to care about? In a perfect world, we would be motivated mostly be intrinsic interest, but let’s face it, we live in an ever-connected and expanding community, and the wants, needs, and interests of those around us do exert an influence.

paddymoran · Oct 31, 2021

Archer
Now anything that doesn't gain value quickly is not worth buying to many people, so I think given the "work" required to be knowledgeable at vintage, the "work" sometimes required to get proper servicing and find correct parts, it's not a surprise that this market has softened when there's relatively easy money to be made in the modern watches.

I think you have it there. I’ve about 40 vintage watches - mainly Omega and a few Longines and Tissot. I’m keen to move on most of them but to me it’s hardly worth the effort relative to selling on newer models. The vintage watches need a service which would cost a good proportion of their value. And without a service the watches wouldn’t achieve much so instead I’ve been selling off more recent Speedmasters (mainly automatics) that I’ve collected some time ago.

dsio · Oct 31, 2021

M'Bob
You may be confusing price increase with interest and discussion. I believe I noted that fine examples continue to bring strong prices. But the middle market has slumped, and in general, there is just less excitement and back-and-forth regarding the nuances of even really nice examples that get posted. It’s like life fatigue has spilled over into vintage watch collecting.

As JW has pointed out, modern Rolex is an outlier, so can’t really be figured in to the discussion.

Here’s another question: does the drop in the middle of the market reflect the growing world-wide income disparity? Put another way: those with very deep pockets, with incomes that are mostly immune to the occasional economic swings, tend to make purchases reflecting their personal perceived status. For example: if you fancy yourself as a “heavy-hitter,” how much esteem are you going to garner from your peer group with this fine watch:

Super high quality, larger wearable size for its day than typical, a solid gold dial, and fabulous, understated elegance. I haven’t followed prices on these Centenary’s for a while, but I bet you can find a really clean example for under $5,000.

Now, I know it’s not a sport watch, and that the fashion lately has been towards those rather than dress, so let’s put that aside for the moment.

But would Mr./Ms. Deep Pockets accrue a lot of bragging rights showing this rather than a PP ref. 3919 to the gang at the country club?

There is no way I could now afford some of the watches I bought 30 years ago. So if I were jumping into the game now, and was lusting after that near-pristine cal. 321 Speedmaster that is still being sought after, what would I do? Buy a crap example for cheap that wouldn’t scratch the itch? Buy a great example of something like the Centenary above, that is getting shrinking interest and few seem to care about? In a perfect world, we would be motivated mostly be intrinsic interest, but let’s face it, we live in an ever-connected and expanding community, and the wants, needs, and interests of those around us do exert an influence.

There are so many undervalued pieces like that when you consider the fact that a complete junk grade Rolex 1803 Day-Date with an Alabama pawn shop set aftermarket diamond bezel and a polished blunt case will sell for more than that head only, it’s a very broad church in the Omega world and everyone is scrambling for the same two pews at the front.

M'Bob · Oct 31, 2021

Archer
the "work" sometimes required to get proper servicing and find correct parts,

This is a very important point you raise: shrinking parts and qualified independent watchmakers that aren’t backlogged for six-months have definitely bumped people from vintage to modern. If your watchmaker has your watch for more time than you do, where’s the fun in that?

felsby · Oct 31, 2021

M'Bob
....Super high quality, larger wearable size for its day than typical, a solid gold dial, and fabulous, understated elegance. I haven’t followed prices on these Centenary’s for a while, but I bet you can find a really clean example for under $5,000....

I found a centenary on a swiss auction site that did not allow foreign account holders. It went for < 2 k$ 😵‍💫

Archer · Oct 31, 2021

M'Bob
This is a very important point you raise: shrinking parts and qualified independent watchmakers that aren’t backlogged for six-months have definitely bumped people from vintage to modern. If your watchmaker has your watch for more time than you do, where’s the fun in that?

As I've said before, this aspect is only going to get worse as prices for parts go up and watchmakers are more scarce. It will eventually make cheaper vintage watches very painful to get serviced, and many will not consider servicing worth doing unless the watch has significant value.

JwRosenthal · Oct 31, 2021

M'Bob
This is a very important point you raise: shrinking parts and qualified independent watchmakers that aren’t backlogged for six-months have definitely bumped people from vintage to modern. If your watchmaker has your watch for more time than you do, where’s the fun in that?

I can see this being a big part of the issue. At the beginning of Covid, we saw a huge surge in interest for vintage watches on eBay and the prices sky rocketed. This was coupled with a near dead stop of supply as pickers became trapped at home and not able to frequent their usual haunts. Flash forward a year + and the people stuck at home with a paycheck still rolling in and nothing to do with their time have 1/2 dozen vintage pieces for which they overpaid and 4 of them stopped running- and they can’t find anyone to service them…fυck this vintage shit!

JwRosenthal · Oct 31, 2021

Archer
As I've said before, this aspect is only going to get worse as prices for parts go up and watchmakers are more scarce. It will eventually make cheaper vintage watches very painful to get serviced, and many will not consider servicing worth doing unless the watch has significant value.

This is our future unfortunately. I have a sizable collection of watches that aren’t worth the cost of a service- but I love them. My watchmaker is in his early 70’s, spends more time working on his boat than on watches (he’s earned it), and he is pretty much the last man standing in the area who will service a $35 Gruen bumper for $150 if I source the parts.
Unless we get a new crop of mechanically inclined yungins who said f-you to their corporate jobs during lockdown and want to live the life of a journeyman, we are screwed.

M'Bob · Oct 31, 2021

JwRosenthal
Unless we get a new crop of mechanically inclined yungins who said f-you to their corporate jobs during lockdown and want to live the life of a journeyman, we are screwed

Stop posting what I’m thinking!

cvalue13 · Oct 31, 2021

I’ve got a $3K watch from the 1950’s that needs a $1000 of work and might take 6-8 months with the guy purportedly best positioned to work this specific watch.

That ain’t for everybody.

Larry S · Oct 31, 2021

fibonacci
There are several different arguments being put forward in this thread:

1. Interest in vintage watches has declined.

2. Prices of vintage watches have declined.

3. Interest in vintage watches has declined relative to modern watches.

4. Fewer high quality vintage watches are making it to market.

I don't have total confidence in any of these, but from my perspective, that of just another collector, #3 and #4 seem true while #1 and #2 do not. If anyone has data or anecdotes suggesting otherwise they would be interesting to see.

I’m in the same camp.
Regarding #3 …Quite a few brands, large and small are producing watches with vintage design elements.
Regarding #4 …The good stuff is sitting in collections and not coming to market. Really apparent with UG.

140dave · Oct 31, 2021

Part of it in my opinion, and has been mentioned, is a lack of inventory and people holding pieces currently. This eBay listing from last week to me really highlights this; very poor pictures, no details, but good price at auction. People want to bid and buy, but are really picky when it is a Buy It Now listing.

And yes, good chance the below is a pretty nice piece but a gamble with those pics. I asked the seller for more pictures during the auction and all sent were equally poor quality.

cristos71 · Oct 31, 2021

Back when I started buying in 2003 Ebay was a fantastic source of affordable vintage watches from all brands and here's why....

They were all auctioned, most auctions started at €0 and many had no reserve, photography was generally average and more often than not atrocious, at least half of sellers were ignorant about what exactly they were selling, sniping tools didn't yet exist and on-line shill bidding was pretty much in it's infancy....and let's not forget there were way, way, way many more good watches being sold on Ebay back then.

So for a new collector who was prepared to put the hours in doing some research, get up in the middle of the night to bid in the final seconds, gamble on shitty pictures, and generally take a few risks there was plenty to fish out of the pond for very, very good prices when compared to the vintage watch shops and few international on-line dealers active at that time. The price differential was remarkable, most watches I bought would have probably cost me 200%-300% more had they come from a vintage shop.

Today is a whole other world on Ebay with virtually no auctions, very high reserves/starting prices, great photo's, clued-up sellers/part-time dealers/rip-off merchants, sniping tools, rampant shilling and other dark arts common and way, way less good watches to be found.

I was probably buying 10-20 watches per year on Ebay by 2005-2006, now it's maybe 1 every 18 months. Back then it was easy to take a punt on a watch for a few hundred € and maybe end up with a cracker. I think there are a lot who started out like me and built up a broad (brand wise) collection and relatively wide appreciation and knowledge of the vintage market by reading, researching, buying and selling for a few hundred €'s a time. A Speedmaster 321 -67 was a €2250-2750 watch, so even I found it possible to win one on Ebay to try it out without having to take out a mortgage.

Today's new vintage buyer has to either start out with crap or spend a pretty seriously sizable chunk of change just to enter the market never mind about swim around a bit and try some tasty stuff out.

I'd say the market has spoiled itself in the last 6 or 7 years, since the hype really stared actually, with very rapid price inflation, too many entering the market and wanting to start top tier instead of just enjoying the ride up building knowledge and experience, too much reliance on social media to tell them what's hot and then dictate the prices that should be paid....and the biggest problem for me in 2020/2021 is serious lack of supply. Two weeks ago I was at my first watch fair in 18 months expecting to find a piece or two but the quality on offer was really poor. The same for Ebay and my other trawling grounds.

Shabbaz · Oct 31, 2021

cristos71
Two weeks ago I was at my first watch fair in 18 months expecting to find a piece or two but the quality on offer was really poor.

Ah. Good to know. I wanted to go as well but at the end I was busy with other things.

fibonacci · Oct 31, 2021

Shabbaz
Ah. Good to know. I wanted to go as well but at the end I was busy with other things.

Is this the Munich watch fair?

Shabbaz · Oct 31, 2021

fibonacci
Is this the Munich watch fair?

No. I think the rikketik fair in the Netherlands. Unless @cristos71 went to Germany

Mark020 · Oct 31, 2021

No. Local Dutch fair

Shabbaz · Oct 31, 2021

Mark020
No. Local Dutch fair

Were you there? Did you see any interesting watches?

Musings on the strength of the vintage watch market, e.g., Speedmasters…

fibonacci

dsio

M'Bob

paddymoran

dsio

M'Bob

felsby

Archer

JwRosenthal

JwRosenthal

M'Bob

cvalue13

Larry S

140dave

cristos71

Shabbaz

fibonacci

Shabbaz

Mark020

Shabbaz

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