Musings on the strength of the vintage watch market, e.g., Speedmasters…

STANDY · Oct 31, 2021

My advice for anyone is to still overpay for the best example of anything vintage if you want to start a collection.

Condition Condition Condition is and will always be key.

Syrte · Oct 31, 2021

stonestone
In a recent Hodinkee podcast Ben Clymer talked very matter of factly about weakness in the vintage watch market.

did he say why? That’s the interesting part IMHO.

stonestone · Oct 31, 2021

Syrte
did he say why? That’s the interesting part IMHO.

Not directly. He just said that four years ago everyone was talking about vintage. Nowadays however you almost never hear about vintage watches, or something to that effect. I think the implication of all his comments however was that the market has gone heavily in the direction of the newer grail watches, i.e. Rolex sport watches, Royal Oaks, Nautilus etc. And they feel they are providing a service by now being able to provide a means of acquiring these watches, albeit at hefty premiums to retail.

STANDY · Oct 31, 2021

stonestone
Not directly. He just said that four years ago everyone was talking about vintage. Nowadays however you almost never hear about vintage watches, or something to that effect. I think the implication of all his comments however was that the market has gone heavily in the direction of the newer grail watches, i.e. Rolex sport watches, Royal Oaks, Nautilus etc. And they feel they are providing a service by now being able to provide a means of acquiring these watches, albeit at hefty premiums to retail.

Odd that the last 3 years they have catered to the higher priced bigger margin used watches and concentrated on new watches with all their hodinkee collaborations with modern makers.

Vintage collectors are still around as @Syrte mentioned earlier on. Just slot more noise from modern collectors

stonestone · Oct 31, 2021

STANDY
Odd that the last 3 years they have catered to the higher priced bigger margin used watches and concentrated on new watches with all their hodinkee collaborations with modern makers.

Vintage collectors are still around as @Syrte mentioned earlier on. Just slot more noise from modern collectors

I agree the vintage collectors are there and H surely knows that, but Clymer and his investors probably figure the bigger money is elsewhere. It's a commercial decision for them. They still provide some vintage-related content to keep those folks clicking into the site and do vintage watch drops once a week. But the collaborations and the "pre-owned" biz are more reflective of their direction.

In Hong Kong a new shop recently opened up near to where I work focusing on super high-end "pre-owned:" Richard Mille, AP ROO in carbon fibre, all-gold Nautilii. Maybe a vintage Rolex or two for show, but mostly just bling. Still early days but I'm suprised at how much traffic they seem to be getting and the buyers appear to have the means to pay for their toys.

tyrantlizardrex · Oct 31, 2021

Speaking to a couple of very senior/respected folks in the business of selling used watches last week, the tone has 100% shifted from “this is an interesting watch, wouldn’t it be cool to own and wear”, into “this is an asset to sit in a safe and appreciate”.

This mentality affects certain specific parts of the vintage world, but mostly seems to be hitting high end independents, FPJ, PP, Lange and Rolex sports watches across the board.

I think the “buy all the cool vintage stuff” a few publications and prominent figures were pushing over the last few years has subsided now that people are learning their “investment” hasn’t always appreciated.

Possibly becuase cool and mass produced does not equal rare…

STANDY · Oct 31, 2021

Have seen many watches over time disappearing from interest once a price point is jumped.... They may be talked about a lot but once they reach unobtainium prices for 90% they are only bought up every now and then.

A solid condition vintage Seamaster is still a good buy and a enjoyable watch that hasn't lost money but has gained slowly.
A $800 watch bought 2 years ago and worn that's still worth $800 has actually made money by the enjoyment alone.

Investment v enjoyment was something that didn't exist when I started. I was quite happy to spend $1000 for the enjoyment alone and probably still am....

Syrte · Oct 31, 2021

It’s an interesting phenomenon. First of all this is a subject matter which is highly volatile and easy to manipulate because it is so dependent on fashion and on the consensus of those who have enough funds to create demand.
Hodinkee was able to create a craze for vintage almost overnight, but we are now seeing that the supply is finite.

For years people on forums and Hodinkee were discovering new models— it was an era of pioneers.
Then came the settlers and the merchants, we’re still in it— they buy up the territory for as much money as they can invest, they farm it, and the ones who call the shots are the highest bidders. As @LouS once observed, the discussion turns to minutiae of whether everything is correct.
And now we are hitting the point where many of the nice vintage watches have come out of the drawers; they sit in bank safe or private collections,’there’s not much left to discuss or discover— and people have to move on.

—Those who have the means and are bored by a wild goose chase turn to the independent watchmakers because there’s technology and life. I’ve seen at least one long time collector of vintage who obtained every possible grail, who openly said on his instagram account that he was getting bored, sold a lot of his vintage watches, and over time only started posting independent creations and modern or preowned.

—market players like Hodinkee have an interest in changing the subject of conversation because it’s the only way for them to survive. So what do they whisper to their wealthy clients? « Vintage is over, preowned is where it’s at »

- and then there are pure investors whose interest is simply to follow trends because it’s all smokes and mirrors and the trends are what maintain the value of their investments, and also they need to keep investing, and so they too follow suit.

I don’t believe people stopped liking vintage watches. But there’s a natural limit to the continued growth of prices and transactions, and many market players in the watch world are addicted to growth and rising prices, with others being priced out.
The land is exhausted for those whose way of life is intensive farming.

Mind you however, if this has changed over 3 years - can it not change again in the next three years?

Syrte · Oct 31, 2021

tyrantlizardrex
I think the “buy all the cool vintage stuff” has subsided now that people are learning their “investment” hasn’t always appreciated.

Possibly becuase cool and mass produced does not equal rare…

What types of watches are you referring to? Prices have increased so much for so many. By the way, as we say this thread is missing pictures, so FYI I am shamelessly pushing (not for sale) the last watch I found at the bottom of my drawer.

It’s cool, mass produced and rare!

handwound and marked « made in the British Colony of Hong Kong ». I’m not sure I shd count on it to appreciate though 😁

felsby · Oct 31, 2021

@M'Bob Why is there a muted response to a nice Speedy?
For my own part: they have been ridiculously expensive since I started collecting 5 years ago. I can have so many nice original fifties Ω's for the price of one Speedy that looks like all the other speedies, unless you happen to know what a DON bezel is and what it means for the price. The Speedy discussion and prices reminds me of stamp collecting, where a printing difference means 10 times value. I am not interested in that.

tyrantlizardrex · Oct 31, 2021

Syrte
What types of watches are you referring to? Prices have increased so much for so many.

This is not my view, but rather that shared with me by the guys I was talking to, who talk to/sell to/advise the "investment" buyers - they (and their clients) seem to feel that anything that's not offering the same kind of return that people are seeing from buying a Rolex, holding it for a couple of years, and selling it for 2-3 times what they paid, isn't "doing well".

I guess your attitude and viewpoint changes when your business model is that these things will always go up, or you are so heavily financially tied up personally that you can't accept anything else.

harrymai86 · Oct 31, 2021

The shift to modern grails such as Rolex sport, PP, AP, VC... somewhat was caused by the booming of social media and those grey market dealers/youtubers. In any watch shows now, you can see a herds of cameramen making episodes of their youtube videos.

New collectors, especially young men with big pocket from crypto, stocks, streaming, or even gamers are heavily affected by those videos and seeking modern grails. They may not want to spend on vintage pieces without the knowledge or just dont want the hassles, while their peers are showing off their GMT or Royal Oak.

Syrte · Oct 31, 2021

This too may all come crashing if and when interest rates start to rise and investors find other ways to park their cash. Of course with more revelations like the Panama Papers and the Pandora papers there will always be people prefering to hide several 100Ks in a 40mm piece of property which can move swiftly and invisibly across borders.

Dgercp · Oct 31, 2021

I think saturation is a big cooling factor. We are constantly bombarded by Ig, facebook, Hodinkee, OF, etc. After a while you get numb to all the Speedies, Subs, Daytona’s etc. What was once a hobby has become a competition. We buy the trends, those watches we are told we love.

But, I think we still live in the golden age of vintage watch collecting. There are still many people interested in vintage and there is more knowledge about vintage than ever before. Value remains decent, especially for the best examples. Maybe the media hype and attention shifting to newer big brand watches will be a good thing for the vintage world?

Taddyangle · Oct 31, 2021

I have been collecting 10 years. And a member here for close to 10 years. I don't recall many posts back in my early days here asking if x watch was a good investment. But it seem like I started reading/seeing many more posts like that in last 5 or so years. No data to back this up, just what I recall in my fading memory as I get old.

I do recall wondering if I should buy a Gemini IV off ebay many years back. Really crappie photos, so I had to think really hard if it was worth what I thought was a premium at that time. Turns out the watch was very close to mint condition.

cvalue13 · Oct 31, 2021

I live in Austin, Texas; for the past few years but especially with the pandemic the talk here is of Californians and New Yorkers moving en masse and distorting housing prices wildly, of big tech moving to town and distorting general affordability, of our roadway infrastructure being far small to support the growing population, and of all “the good old places” that have gone out of business due to increases in cost of business.

A friend recently forwarded me a New York Times article about Austin that was explaining all these same concerns - but the article was written in 1983

This is not to suggest there haven’t been some huge changes in watch collecting the past several years (just as the pandemic has changed the degree of “issues” in my town), but instead that I try and stay deeply skeptical of “the good ole’ days” platitudes.

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As a separate matter, one market dynamic not yet touched upon are all the modern reissues that have been brought about by recent trends. Decisive topic, but I for one welcome the home runs (eg NEW321).

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Related to the topic of modern re-issues, it’s interesting to note that the brands and models of watches with the most astronomical increase in interest are all fairly unchanged “heritage” models that never required reissuing: Nautilus, Royal Oak, Rolex SS sports, Speedmaster, etc.

dsio · Oct 31, 2021

cvalue13
I live in Austin, Texas; for the past few years but especially with the pandemic the talk here is of Californians and New Yorkers moving en masse and distorting housing prices wildly, of big tech moving to town and distorting general affordability, of our roadway infrastructure being far small to support the growing population, and of all “the good old places” that have gone out of business due to increases in cost of business.

A friend recently forwarded me a New York Times article about Austin that was explaining all these same concerns - but the article was written in 1983

This is not to suggest there haven’t been some huge changes in watch collecting the past several years (just as the pandemic has changed the degree of “issues” in my town), but instead that I try and stay deeply skeptical of “the good ole’ days” platitudes.

--------

As a separate matter, one market dynamic not yet touched upon are all the modern reissues that have been brought about by recent trends. Decisive topic, but I for one welcome the home runs (eg NEW321).

--------

Related to the topic of modern re-issues, it’s interesting to note that the brands and models of watches with the most astronomical increase in interest are all fairly unchanged “heritage” models that never required reissuing: Nautilus, Royal Oak, Rolex SS sports, Speedmaster, etc.

The Austin thing I was even aware of from Australia, half of the big streamers on twitch either have moved to Austin or are moving there for the tax savings and the Google fibre in the ground there and a number of tech companies are there for the same reason. I was pressured very firmly to move to Dallas by the large company I used to work for that recently relocated from LA to Dallas, again mainly for tax reasons but after spending some time there I wasn’t really a fan and passed. Austin I’ve been told is a lot better and that Google cable pushes it to top position but then the housing was already getting hot pre-covid so I can only imagine how it is now.

cvalue13 · Oct 31, 2021

dsio
Austin I’ve been told is a lot better and that Google cable pushes it to top position but then the housing was already getting hot pre-covid so I can only imagine how it is now.

The house we bought 5 years ago has doubled in price. And we’re not in the “coolest” parts of town.

dsio · Oct 31, 2021

cvalue13
The house we bought 5 years ago has doubled in price. And we’re not in the “coolest” parts of town.

Some of the stuff I’ve seen is rather hilarious too like single blokes buying a 5 bedroom McMansion there and having a bedroom full of Lego on cheap shelves, a room for cheap gym gear, a room for junk, a bedroom with a mattress on the floor and then an office that’s relatively kitted out. Like the area they want to be in for safety and conveniences and to be near their friends and coworkers only had large houses in gated communities and these dudes don’t even have the option of buying a unit or apartment there so they can’t afford to buy furniture after the mortgage.

Archer · Oct 31, 2021

cvalue13
The house we bought 5 years ago has doubled in price. And we’re not in the “coolest” parts of town.

Some new houses here built 18 months ago have more than doubled in price already when resold. I get the impression that housing prices are up almost everywhere. We are not in a big city, but mostly out in the country, although the development in my own small area here will more than quadruple the population of my small community when it's all done. From about 130 homes to around 550.

For us here, it's people from Toronto who can no longer afford the price of homes there, moving out across the rest of the province. They have slowly made it 2 hours down the highway to where we are, and the pandemic and people working from home, have accelerated this spread that started maybe 4-5 years ago.

Back to watches - the number of people involved who are simply following the money has increased a huge amount in the time I've been involved in watches, both as a collector and watchmaker. It used to be rare that a modern watch would actually gain value when you owned it, and everyone who sold expected that they would lose some money. Now anything that doesn't gain value quickly is not worth buying to many people, so I think given the "work" required to be knowledgeable at vintage, the "work" sometimes required to get proper servicing and find correct parts, it's not a surprise that this market has softened when there's relatively easy money to be made in the modern watches.

Syrte
Mind you however, if this has changed over 3 years - can it not change again in the next three years?

Exactly - trends come and go. Will vintage continue to decline? Will it bonce back and go even higher? Who knows, but I don't believe the situation with modern watches is sustainable.

Musings on the strength of the vintage watch market, e.g., Speedmasters…

STANDY

Syrte

stonestone

STANDY

stonestone

tyrantlizardrex

STANDY

Syrte

Syrte

felsby

tyrantlizardrex

harrymai86

Syrte

Dgercp

Taddyangle

cvalue13

dsio

cvalue13

dsio

Archer

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