Since no one has a crystal ball, and there are all sorts of geopolitical and economic "what ifs" and uncertainty in the world today, I think it would be interesting to get forum members' thoughts on where they see the marketing trending in the near future.

I'll start.

I think that the vintage market is strong and will continue to perform well for next year. Your big names such as Rolex will hold value and will have moderate increases, but no major jumps with some models possibly decreasing in value slightly. In this market excellent original examples will continue to command premiums, and secondary brands such as Omega, Heuer, Zenith are very good plays and will continue to increase in the near future.

A shift has occurred in the market, and collectors are changing direction. Instead of focusing on brand, they are now focusing on movements, case style/size, dial designs, intended purpose (i.e. military), exceptional attributes (i.e. patina and tropical).

This shift in the collector's buying focus stems from major brands having dramatic increases in the previous 6mo to 1 year.

In short, any watch that has a tie to known major brand or style (i.e. Type XX, Yachting timer, panda, straight lugs, etc.) will be a strong and desirable piece in the foreseeable future.

This shift from brand to aesthetic means real trouble for the modern market that has been taking a beating the recent past. The modern market, while influencing the vintage market, seems to have developed a completely separate type of consumer/collector. No offense meant to anyone, but these types of collectors buy only for brand (think Panera bread watches, Hublot, etc.). These collectors are fickel creatures, and buy for image and prestige in the short term. When the economy is good or a watch is hot, they buy, buy, buy, but the moment that things head south, or they simply lose interest, no more purchases on new high end pieces.

The vintage collector, for the most part, has a strong connection to their watches. While many had passion get them in the game, it is now bolstered by the investment aspect.

My outlook is that the vintage market will remain strong, and as certain obscure models start to hit big numbers, more examples will pop up, thus causing competition in the market, and possibly decreasing inflated prices. Great examples will command top dollar and collectors will not pay a premium for a desirable reference in crappy condition. Lower end watches, while we are seeing some gains, will decrease, as collectors realize that "close but no cigar" applies to the watch world as well. If shit goes down economically, people will hold their collections tight and wait it out. Higher end pieces will not move as quickly, but watches in the sub $10k range will still have fluidity--people will still buy, but will not spend as much.

The modern market is screwed. I just have a gut feeling about it. No real science behind it, but PP and Zenith dropping prices is a real sign of the times. The market is flooded, and everyone that wanted 1 or 10 high end watches has them, and the fad is nearing an end.

Would be interested to see others thoughts as the market is as crazy as ever.

 

"The modern market is screwed."

Tell that to the guys on the Daytona wait list ...

 

As a whole the modern market, and mainly the secondary is what I am referring. The new Daytona will be fine, too much demand for too little supply.

 

Hear ya - but there are a lot of new watches actually doing well - I just bought a Tudor BBB for example, as have many others... Just one more example ...

 

Sure, there are few exceptions. Most of the modern LE Speedys for example, but generally speaking I would agree based on my observations. As far as a few of the modern Omegas, I have seen a steady decline in the used market. The Seamaster Coax for example, I recently saw one on eBay from a US based seller with a fair number of sales not get a single bid with an asking price of $3650. I was shocked. I have seen them sell recently in the $3800-3900 range when a year ago they were in the $4250 range. Observed the same steady decline with other modern Omegas, including the Ploprof.

 

You are talking micro, and I am talking macro. Of course certain brands and product lines are somewhat immune to market shifts, but the market as a whole will see a lot more pain in the future.

My main point is that the falling tide of the modern market will not have major implications to the vintage market, and may strengthen it.

 

I am looking forward to the day when vintage rolex prices are falling...

 

I think I disagree... most of the"newer" vintage market of Rolex benefited from 15+ years of steep price increases for new ones.

When seeking a 15 year old GMT people would compare the price to the current one at the AD and not to the price in 2001 (half of 2016ies price). And paying the used price makes perfect sense due to the premium of the new and hiked prices.

If (big if) we see 5 flat years in terms of new prices , that uplift for the secondary market will be lost.

 

I think the turmoil of some modern brands are not due to the growing vintage market. Most modern brands can't do marketing like Rolex and simply do not produce anything aesthetically attractive to the general crowd. Daniel Wellington's sales revenue is $70million and I'm sure Shinola's is even higher.

On the other hand, I think the vintage watch market helps boost modern brands. Zodiac is able to use its heritage to do re-issues. Tag Heuer as well with many more. Essentially, its marketing for them in a way. Just look at Rolex Daytona -- owning a vintage doesn't mean modern is a never (vice-versa).

If I wasn't into watches, I would probably buy a few nice modern watches over my life (possibly iWatch) and thats it. Being a watch collector, you buy 50++ watches including some modern ones even if you're mostly a vintage collector.

Just my 2cents.

 

I am bit confused. What is "newer" vintage? I am operating under the premise that a vintage Rolex has a matte dial and most likely an acrylic crystal. While there are exceptions to any rule, if a Rolex has a sapphire crystal and white gold surrounds on the indices, it is for the most considered a modern Rolex.

 

I think this thread is interesting in the sense that it shows that people view watch collecting in different ways. The only premise I have for buying watches are:1 I love the watch 2 I have the money to buy the watch. Future rises or loses in value are not part of the equation. They might be if I was going to drop 20 grand on a watch but I don't have that kind of money so it is not relevant to me.

 

While I'm not a fan of most of their recent articles, Hodinkee posted an interesting one recently which mirrors OPs sentiments for current modern watch market trends. Most major markets are seeing continued drop in sales volume according to published numbers from the Federation of the Swiss Watch Industry. These couple pasted graphs are quite poignant and apropos to this discussion:

 

@watchknut +1 on what you said so far. And to add my 2 Cents to the discussion:

I think Part of the strong increase in vintage watch prices and the strong market we are in now Is the general economic situation we are in at the moment. Interest rates are on an all Time low, People fear negative interest rates for the Money they stored in their Bank accounts. This was already annouced, in Germany, by some Major Bankhouses. So we have a flight to tangible assets and real estate. Just look at Vintage Cars, Art, Furniture, watches etc. Concours grade Ferraris are more or less flipped like blue chip stock nowadays. Auctioned by coys two years ago for 2 mil. $, auctioned again by Bonhams this year for 3,2 mil. $. Try to get those profit rates with stock or similar assets in todays market.

So where does this lead us in the watch Market? I think we will see a slow correction, as already mentioned by other members in this forum, meaning that c to b grade examples of watches will Level off while a and a+ will still comand a premium. Same can be reviewed for the recent vintage car auctions around the globe. While all in all and as long as the interest rates won't increase, prices will, albeit more slowly, still increase.

And what If the "bubble" bursts? Certain examples will always be in demand by collectors, i.e: early 321 Speedmasters, daytonas, 911 Porsches etc. and will Continue to command top end prices. On the other Hand I see sub-references like, lets say the Mark II-4.5 speedmasters ( which increased sognificantly over the last 1-2 years) or 928 Porsches falling down to "normal" Price Levels again.


Can't say much about the modern warch market thou.

Cheers,

Max

 

If the bubble bursts, yippee-get to reload on more vintage sm300s, vintage datejusts, finally find a Speedie that's right for me, explore a few others I've been getting curious about, etc
And, if it keeps going up, I'm rich as is anyway (and others on this forum fabulously wealthy beyond measure).

 

Agreed. I also think there is too much money being spent on medium grade stuff. I'm not against watches that have dents and dings but a watch that's in 70% of the condition of a mint example shouldn't sell for 90% of the mint one's value. If and when those people go to sell the watches and try to do so at a profit all those people that liked the watch on instagram won't be there to open their wallets. That's gonna have a ripple effect on the whole market. It also seem people are quick accept the sudden and dramatic price increase of certain models and brands. They couldn't all have been undervalued as is the standard explanation. Too many people out there are ignoring the basic rules of collecting.

 

I agree, we have heard it here many a time.

A nice example at going rate is passed because they are 3-400 cheaper on eBay
or
I only want to spend $600

Then there is the punter that wants to sell a 70% of condition watch and gets his pricing from mint examples

 

I bought my watch to wear and enjoy every day, and it was a lifestyle and luxury decision. I would never have bought it as an investment.

Plus, who knows how long I'd live anyways. Pffft to savings