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Foo2rama
··Nowhere near as grumpy as he used to be...Where exactly has Rolex a non public company ever stated earnings, sales, or production numbers?
Is Rolex honest about their production volume?
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jud
·
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jud
·Definitely. I have never paid over MSRP on a new Rolex watch. Vintage is another story.
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cvalue13
·That sort of adds to my argument doesn't it? Since China, HK, and other affected areas are more than 25% of Rolex's sales, those new inventory would have been diverted elsewhere. But where? All of us can see that they didn't end up at our local ADs. The only rational explanation is that Rolex never produced the numbers most people cite.
Your reasoning appears to be: China/HK used to get 25% of inventory, now non-Asian ADs aren’t getting that 25%, so China/HK’s 25% never really existed?
Whatever Rolex’s production is, I believe it didn’t both exist and not exist at the same time.
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Screwbacks
·there are thousands of rolexes available on ebay, sports or nonsports. whether rolex sa is over producing or not, it is not material as long as those who crave for a rolex watch will just have to do a little bit of searching.
.
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jud
·Your electronic cord spaghetti situation makes me distrust everything about your claims on all topics.
Have some cord dignity, man! ☕
Sorry. I actually took that picture and sent it to my SA so that he knew I wasn't flipping any of the watches he has sold me. I wasn't worried about the background.
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Hduck
·I was able to order and receive a SS Sub in 3 weeks from an AD at MSRP.
I asked my SA (whom I have done many transactions with and whom seems to be completely open an honest with me always) about rumors that particular customers are vetted by the owner. She told me they are not.
I asked if production is increasing. To her knowledge it’s still the same.
As previously mentioned, perhaps the virus is causing a redistribution of stock. But like anything serially produced, a change is gradual at the end of the chain. It’s not a sudden floodgate
I asked my SA (whom I have done many transactions with and whom seems to be completely open an honest with me always) about rumors that particular customers are vetted by the owner. She told me they are not.
I asked if production is increasing. To her knowledge it’s still the same.
As previously mentioned, perhaps the virus is causing a redistribution of stock. But like anything serially produced, a change is gradual at the end of the chain. It’s not a sudden floodgate
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Impgreene
·Your reasoning appears to be: China/HK used to get 25% of inventory, now non-Asian ADs aren’t getting that 25%, so China/HK’s 25% never really existed?
Whatever Rolex’s production is, I believe it didn’t both exist and not exist at the same time.
Maybe it did both exist and not exist at the same time - Schrödinger production.
They'd only be able to produce spherical Rolex in a vacuum though.
And the mechanisms would have to be super cooled and run at absolute zero.
Maybe thay explains everything, the production both exists and doesnt exist, until the ADs receive (or not receive) the watch and it collapses to a single (eigen)state of either being inventory or not being inventory.
They're very clever those Swissies, very cunning way to make sure nobody can ever count their true production, seems obvious when you think about it ...........
Awaiting the new Rolex Hadron, built in collaboration with CERN ...........
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dennisthemenace
·demand.
It really is as simple as that.
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TechFounder
·If Rolex makes a million watches a year and there are two million people on waiting lists, then you won't see them on AD's shelves.
It really is as simple as that.
It's not that simple. I know it's difficult for you to comprehend but there's an old saying that when you're a hammer, everything looks like a nail. Watch fanatics on this forum see everyone as expensive Swiss watch customers. That's just not the case. The number of customers for expensive mechanical watches is miniscule. It's not even growing except for Asians buying. With China and HK shut down, we should have seen supply increase here and elsewhere. And I'm not just talking about the most sought after tool watches, I'm talking across the board.
Hodinkee posted an article today about how bad things are. The U.S. will likely see a spike in infection rates over the coming months which means no one here will be interested in buying watches either. We'll see if this so called Rolex shortage continues.
https://www.hodinkee.com/articles/baselworld-is-canceled-now-what
Edited:
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Evitzee
·It's not that simple. I know it's difficult for you to comprehend but there's an old saying that when you're a hammer, everything looks like a nail. Watch fanatics on this forum see everyone as expensive Swiss watch customers. That's is just not the case. The number of customers for expensive mechanical watches are miniscule. It's not even growing except for Asians buying. With China and HK shut down, we should have seen supply increase here and elsewhere. And I'm not just talking about the most sought after tool watches, I'm talking across the board.
Hodinkee posted an article today about how bad things are. The U.S. will likely see a spike in infection rates over the coming months which means no one here will be interested in buying watches either. We'll see if this so called Rolex shortage continues.
https://www.hodinkee.com/articles/baselworld-is-canceled-now-what
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TechFounder
·Sorry, I don't take medical assessments and predictions from Hodinkee, especially that references MSNBC's Rachel Maddow as a source.
¯\_(ツ)_/¯
Easy tiger, they only cited the source as where news of the Baselworld cancellation. Nothing else.
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cvalue13
·Watch fanatics on this forum see everyone as expensive Swiss watch customers. That's just not the case.
People on this forum understand the (obvious) fact that not everyone is into mechanical Swiss watches, much less expensive ones. But a market does exist. That’s what caused you to post here in the first place.
The number of customers for expensive mechanical watches is miniscule.
Are you here suggesting that luxury goods are luxury goods?
Again, another (obvious) fact not lost on anyone here.
It's not even growing except for Asians buying.
Here is where you veer away from obvious and into the incorrect. For the past 10+ years Swiss mechanical watch exports have increased, not only by unit, but also value per unit. And, those increases have come from across all major markets. China and HK have increased more than others, but they’ve all increased.
With China and HK shut down, we should have seen supply increase here and elsewhere.
Now you’ve journeyed past both obvious and incorrect, into what I can only assume is pure armchair: based on what insider industry information do you know (A) export schedules since December, (B) supply adjustments by manufacturers (up or down) since January, (C) the status of stranded inventory in or arriving to China/HK since January, and (D) supply chain dynamics and resulting timing required for both (1) manufacturers to divert Swiss Swiss inventory to new markets, and (2) that inventory to arrive to market in those locations? I’m suspicious that you have any such insider industry insights, given that in your immediately prior point you didn’t know even the public information regarding Swiss mechanical export unit/value trends.
You can catch up to the gang starting here, here, here, here, here, and last but not least here.
To paraphrase a great poet:
I know it's difficult for you to comprehend
But there's an old saying that
When you're a @TechFounder
Everything looks like Watchuseek forum.
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Impgreene
·Dont know if anyone else has noticed, but I have seen quite a few discounted second had Rolex (albeit online) in the last week or so ..................
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cvalue13
·Dont know if anyone else has noticed, but I have seen quite a few discounted second had Rolex (albeit online) in the last week or so ..................
If things stay as they are now or worse, it will be not altogether surprising if second hand/grey prices soften somewhat in the coming months. Not only is there stranded inventory in Asia (and to a lesser extent Italy, etc.) that is most likely to find its way out via e-commerce (and so grey dealers), but one has to wonder if also the general global market condition isn’t going to at least somewhat impact sales and so pricing.
I do not, however, think there is any way the past two months of (incremental) slowdown in Asia will anytime soon cause SS Sports Rolex to materialize idle in the cases of ADs here in the major non-Asian markets. That inventory probably doesn’t shift so quickly, and also many dealers likely have long waiting lists to absorb any near term uptick in inventory.
But if Asia stays on lockdown, and manufactures can’t or choose to not ramp down production or simply idol inventory, then math suggests that supply will begin catching up to demand. If so, the SS Sports Rolex on the grey market will come down.
Not surprising if some grey market dealers are also beginning to essentially reduce their own inventories, preemptively. Many do not, I suspect, have the ability to risk getting stuck with that type of high capital inventory.
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Impgreene
·If things stay as they are now or worse, it will be not altogether surprising if second hand/grey prices soften somewhat in the coming months. Not only is there stranded inventory in Asia (and to a lesser extent Italy, etc.) that is most likely to find its way out via e-commerce (and so grey dealers), but one has to wonder if also the general global market condition isn’t going to at least somewhat impact sales and so pricing.
I do not, however, think there is any way the past two months of (incremental) slowdown in Asia will anytime soon cause SS Sports Rolex to materialize idle in the cases of ADs here in the major non-Asian markets. That inventory probably doesn’t shift so quickly, and also many dealers likely have long waiting lists to absorb any near term uptick in inventory.
But if Asia stays on lockdown, and manufactures can’t or choose to not ramp down production or simply idol inventory, then math suggests that supply will begin catching up to demand. If so, the SS Sports Rolex on the grey market will come down.
Not surprising if some grey market dealers are also beginning to essentially reduce their own inventories, preemptively. Many do not, I suspect, have the ability to risk getting stuck with that type of high capital inventory.
I agree, but I think it may be more precipitous, as demand dried up really quickly, so it wouldn't surprise me if there is a lot of stock in the hands of 'flippers' that they start to worry about being able to shift ...........
