I don't understand the recent Rolex SS craze/shortage. What am I missing?

cvalue13 · May 9, 2022

Archer
and the only unhappy party here is the average Rolex buyer.

Agree with everything you said (as you know), though on this one little bit it’s not that I disagree so much as I’d like to expand it to:

“the only unhappy party here is the average Rolex buyer, who can be said to be “unhappy” only in the same way as a boy pining after the most popular girl in school that he’s *almost* certainly never get to date … but since there’s some minuscule chance, he’ll only become more fixated, as humans are strange animals, drawn toward what is attractively aloof and fashionably unavailable.”

😁

johnireland · May 9, 2022

Nobel Prize
what I describe is what happens. say 20, say 10, say 5. The volume of purchasing is huge. Does it sound like a Ponzi game where someone is very soon getting stuck with a watch not worth the prize? Hell, you have just described buying a Rolex these days. Unless you think an Oyster perpetual 41 is worth 30 grand, or a Daytona 50

Deep in my heart I don't think there is a watch on the planet worth 30 grand. No matter who makes it. The only acception would be the fictional legend, the Patek Philippe Six Nines, from the book "Horace Pope Loves to Steal."

johnireland · May 9, 2022

Tekashi_145.022
Reminds me of an interview I saw with a recently retired Navy SEAL. He was reviewing his EDC for global travel - 3 things he wouldn’t be caught without - and his all-black Rolex GMT-Master II was one of his essentials. It wasn’t so much he loved the watch — it was that anyone in the world knew what a Rolex was, and in a pinch, he could use it to barter with someone to trade for a beater car to cross the border, a gun, a place to stay for a night, etc.

The global appeal of Rolex could be fueling its meteoric gray market price rises as people fear currency devaluation (or defaults in some countries’ cases), inflation, etc. If I was a resident of certain countries and considering emigrating, I’d rather have a globally-recognized asset - like a sports Rolex - than invest in local land or currency.

To your point, there are interesting value propositions in other brands. Agreed vintage 18k Connies appear undervalued (especially in comparison).

I used to joke about my 18k Day Date that if the SHIF, and I was walking across the desert, and along came a man on a camel with an AK47 and a beautiful wife, I could trade him the Rolex for his camel, his gun and his wife, and be happily on my way.

marcn · May 9, 2022

johnireland
I used to joke about my 18k Day Date that if the SHIF, and I was walking across the desert, and along came a man on a camel with an AK47 and a beautiful wife, I could trade him the Rolex for his camel, his gun and his wife, and be happily on my way.

The joke being, it would all end very differently than that.

gbesq · May 9, 2022

johnireland
Deep in my heart I don't think there is a watch on the planet worth 30 grand. No matter who makes it. The only acception would be the fictional legend, the Patek Philippe Six Nines, from the book "Horace Pope Loves to Steal."

And Aldrin's missing Speedmaster which would be worth more to a vintage Omega collector than anything that Patek and Rolex could muster, combined.

blufinz52 · May 9, 2022

cvalue13
who can be said to be “unhappy” only in the same way as a boy pining after the most popular girl in school that he’s *almost* certainly never get to date

For me there were a lot more girls than just the most popular that I certainly was never going to date 😀

gbesq · May 9, 2022

Foo2rama
It’s a non profit trust. Your both right.

The words charitable, trust and nonprofit all have interpretations under Swiss law that are quite different than their American counterparts. You won't see Rolex filing an IRS form 990 or being rated on Charity Navigator anytime soon.

cvalue13 · May 9, 2022

blufinz52
For me there were a lot more girls than just the most popular that I certainly was never going to date 😀

Yeah, to be fair Rolex is more like the girl next door that won’t date us, while the Nautilus and Royal Oak are maybe on the cheerleading squad?

The metaphor definitely breaks down at some interrogation, but suffices to say I’m not so sure humans are always as “unhappy” as the feel when it comes to things being difficult to obtain.

As with large cats and bears, if something runs away their instincts are to chase.

bmpennington · May 9, 2022

I disagree with buying an Omega over a Rolex. They are one of only few brands that actually sell above retail. If you are looking at it from a price standpoint only and nothing else, then go ahead and spend less.

gbesq · May 9, 2022

bmpennington
I disagree with buying an Omega over a Rolex. They are one of only few brands that actually sell above retail. If you are looking at it from a price standpoint only and nothing else, then go ahead and spend less.

Just like tulips and stocks that go up forever. 🙄

pumpernikiel · May 9, 2022

Archer
Rolex has already stated in writing that they do not control distribution once it gets to the AD, and have no influence on who the AD sells to. So they have basically announced that the regular Rolex buyer is on their own, and that they have no plans to do anything at all about this.

Basically they washed their hands of this issue - but any corporation would probably do the same and blame it on the distributor. If they do not own the distribution channel then technically they are not responsible for it.

YY77 · May 9, 2022

bmpennington
I disagree with buying an Omega over a Rolex. They are one of only few brands that actually sell above retail. If you are looking at it from a price standpoint only and nothing else, then go ahead and spend less.

If you're buying because you like it and won't ever sell it, it doesn't matter whether it gains or drops below retail.

Lurk41 · May 9, 2022

pumpernikiel
If they do not own the distribution channel then technically they are not responsible for it.

They do not own it but they control it. If they are unhappy with a behavior of an AD, they can stop the contract. It won't be the 1st company to do that, and it is not even specific to the watch industry. Technically, they are at least partially responsible for it, even if they claim the opposite.

Jockywilson1 · May 9, 2022

Humans by and large like being in an exclusive club. The more expensive and harder to get a Rolex gets the more people are drawn to it and the circle continues. People bash Rolex for not letting them buy a watch at retail, the counter to this is surely to commend them for not increasing the retail by 100% and taking all the profit for themselves. But like it or not they are smart and know that would garner more a distaste in the brand. Better to sell all the inventory and let grey dealers be the evil ones. Going back to the hot girl scenario, she smiled at you once and if you play it right, you might get a date with her in 2-3 years.

Archer · May 9, 2022

pumpernikiel
Basically they washed their hands of this issue - but any corporation would probably do the same and blame it on the distributor.

Yes, never said differently. I'm just refuting the notion that Rolex wants to do something about this situation - they clearly do not.

YY77 · May 9, 2022

Jockywilson1
People bash Rolex for not letting them buy a watch at retail, the counter to this is surely to commend them for not increasing the retail by 100% and taking all the profit for themselves.

Sales would surely go down if a GMT master would be 24k RRP, how much premium would that leave people speculating on the resell value, plus how many "normal" people would be willing/able to shell out that kind of money to wear a SS watch. And what happens if the market changes, they can't easily go back to 12k.

MTROIS · May 9, 2022

Ok, I hadn’t had a chance to post in a little while, but I am going to chime in a bit on this topic since I have some tidbits of info based on recent first-hand experience:

- Common models, including professional SS models like Subs, Exp II, Exp I (even GMT Master… to an extent) are becoming more available… and, as anticipated, many of the ADs have them in their safe in the back, only for them to decide to whom they will sell. In fact, it took me exactly two days to recently acquire my Sub as I ran into a salesperson whom I had met previously when he was working for another brand and whom knew that I am an enthusiast/collector and not a flipper. He even stated clearly that they exclusively sell to local customers (however local they are, not sure, but clearly within state or neighboring states) and try to limit their sales to one piece per person for now. (Ironically, this is a new boutique that just opened close to an OB, and the day I ran into my buddy, I was actually on my way to the OB to introduce a colleague of mine to the Omega staff as he wanted to acquire a Speedy 3861… but since he is on a waiting list for a Milgauss at this new Rolex AD, he dragged me in on the way… and the rest is history!).
- Hot/hype models like Daytona, anything with meteorite dial, gem-set watches, or even SS sky dwellers to an extent, are still very tough to come by, borderline impossible (certainly for all Daytonas!).
- All Rolex ADs I recently visited had similar procedures: take your contact info and you can create a wishlist with about two watches. I think I scored brownie points with my wishlist of exactly one for a model that typically mostly appeals to enthusiasts… except for @Archer whose opinion about Rolex are “crystal clear”! 😗😁
- Also, I had the definite experience that sales people are more hopeful about getting watches going forward, but also making it clear that they are trying to sell to local customers and/or enthusiasts in order to fend off the grey market.

Not sure how successful they are, but with all that is going on in the world and with the economy, I would also expect prices to soften on secondary market because the watches will be somewhat more available again in the midterm.

Just my $0.02… and here is the mandatory wrist shot:

Archer · May 9, 2022

MTROIS
Ok, I hadn’t had a chance to post in a little while, but I am going to chime in a bit on this topic since I have some tidbits of info based recent first hand experience:

In fact, it took me exactly two days to recently acquire my Sub as I ran into a salesperson whom I had met previously when he was working for another brand and whom knew that I am an enthusiast/collector and not a flipper.

Not surprised - there's already a softening in secondary market prices, and I think the grey dealers have likely curtailed their buying from AD's, in anticipation of the whole thing falling apart in the near future.

Jockywilson1 · May 9, 2022

YY77
Sales would surely go down if a GMT master would be 24k RRP, how much premium would that leave people speculating on the resell value, plus how many "normal" people would be willing/able to shell out that kind of money to wear a SS watch. And what happens if the market changes, they can't easily go back to 12k.

RRP for Rolex is nonsense if you can’t actually buy one in a shop. Not going into too much research (so take these figures as hypothetical) a brand new Gmt from a grey is £15k. rrp is £8.5k. If Rolex increased that to £12k, there’s a chance that the market price would stay at £15k, suddenly the profit for grey market flippers is cut to a level that possibly means it’s no longer worth the hassle. Thus giving people an opportunity to now purchase at retail once again and in fact saving money. But there would be uproar stating that Rolex are in a cash grab, so damaging the brand etc. and possibly leading to drop in sales. Like it or not, Rolex has orchestrated a lovely market position that means everything is sold whilst still appearing to have some integrity.

pumpernikiel · May 9, 2022

Lurk41
They do not own it but they control it. If they are unhappy with a behavior of an AD, they can stop the contract. It won't be the 1st company to do that, and it is not even specific to the watch industry. Technically, they are at least partially responsible for it, even if they claim the opposite.

True - but any interruption of current operations (i.e. closing cooperation with a distributor and appointing another one) is always a painful exercise. They need to find legal ground for ceasing the contract, probably they have no solid proof of wrongdoing, and of course there is no guarantee that the new distributor will do it differently. Going direct could be a way out but it is always more expensive so with brick and mortar setup. From e-commerce they probably want to stay away... So, it is easier to stick to what they know and what they've done for years. Don't get me wrong - i am not defending them, just trying to share that probably from their financial stand point it is just not worth it to dig into this so deep. And of course you are right that who suffers the most is the end-customer, which is a real shame.

I don't understand the recent Rolex SS craze/shortage. What am I missing?

cvalue13

johnireland

johnireland

marcn

gbesq

blufinz52

gbesq

cvalue13

bmpennington

gbesq

pumpernikiel

YY77

Lurk41

Jockywilson1

Archer

YY77

MTROIS

Archer

Jockywilson1

pumpernikiel

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