I don't understand the recent Rolex SS craze/shortage. What am I missing?

Archer · May 3, 2021

H hiroshikato1
I do not have any “numbers” but common sense would tell most people that in addition to the Rolex factory shutting down, having the COSC not certifying watches during a two or three month period would cause a production bottleneck in addition to the usual supply chain issues.
But Al, really, does it even matter?
People just love to argue when they have too much time on their hands.
What is it that you are trying to prove? Or disprove?

Does it matter? You were the one that brought this up. It's the first time I've seen anyone suggest that part of the Rolex issue is because of COSC, so I'm just trying to understand where this idea comes from.

You said it "may be" a potential bottleneck but maybe not because Omega doesn't use COSC, and when I clarified that they still do, you then seemed very sure it's a bottleneck. I'm just asking why you believe this is any sort of bottleneck when it hasn't been in the past.

Do you know that COSC was actually shut down?

Do you know that they could not process all the movements they were asked to?

Why would the COSC shutdown, if it happened, affect Rolex (their biggest customer) more than other brands?

How does this explain the last years of Rolex shelves being mostly empty, since Covid was only 2020 onwards?

I know you say this is "common sense" but I don't see a lot of sense it in personally. But if you have something in the way of facts to shed light on this claim, I'm quite willing to revise my position on it. Otherwise this is just another theory someone pulled out of their arse when they had too much time on their hands...

rfcs · May 3, 2021

H hiroshikato1
Oh no. I read your reply correctly. I don’t want to assume anything but your response means that you do not understand the current situation.
Even with your small suitcase full of cash (usually $5K is the deposit for Porsche), I honestly do not see any dealer taking your deposit because without a car buying history, you will never get on the list.
A GT3 is not the most expensive Porsche, as are SS Subs, GMTs, SDs or Daytonas in the Rolex line.
These are luxury items and are valued because of many factors. Desirability is only one factor.
The other factors being value retention and reliability in these examples of Porsche and Rolex. These two factors are very unique because most luxury cars and watches lose value over time, as well as having horrible reliability issues.
I am only one owner but I have been fortunate to actually owned each GT3 version since 2007. Those being the 997.1, 997.2, 991.1 and now the 991.2.
I am also lucky enough to own every SS version of the Daytona from the A series Zenith to the current 116500 in black and white, as well as the SS subs from 1680 to the current 216610. Plus several versions Exp II’s, Exp I’s and SD’s.
Both the cars and the watches have retained their values better than almost all other watches and cars I have owned. Yes, there are a few outliers like my Patek 5711-1A or AP 15302ST but most watches and cars depreciate, Rolex SS models seem to buck this trend.
Do not be naive to think that this fact alone doesn’t make people want them even more.

Out of thread, but which GT3 is your favorite if you wanted to buy it pre owned?

S.H. · May 3, 2021

Archer
Does it matter? You were the one that brought this up. It's the first time I've seen anyone suggest that part of the Rolex issue is because of COSC, so I'm just trying to understand where this idea comes from.

Indeed I'd like to know too, because I reaaally doubt that Rolex would let the COSC be a bottleneck to their cash machine*. After all they have done over decades to streamline, the engineering, the gobbling up of suppliers, etc, that would be strange to be caught pants down with a dry pipeline because of some rubber stamping. The very idea makes me chuckle. It is only my uninformed opinion, of course.

*(I also doubt the COSC would let it happen either: I don't see the Swiss collectively shooting themselves in the foot over such a triviality. They learned a thing or two about producing watches over the years, we must give that to them)

Maganator · May 3, 2021

So I have an appointment at my local Rolex AD tomorrow. I have been on the waitlist for the new Submariner since September 2020.

I have bought two Omegas from them in the past (both Speedy Tuesdays) but never a Rolex.

Are my chances of walking out tomorrow with the new Submariner non-existent?

p.s. it was me who set up the appointment after receiving a mail shot inviting me to.

hiroshikato1 · May 3, 2021

rfcs
Out of thread, but which GT3 is your favorite if you wanted to buy it pre owned?

Great question. It depends on what you are looking for. The 997.1 was raw and really close to what the GT3 is meant to be. The 997.2 was more plush and added FAL (front axle lift) which is a game changer if you drive the car anywhere else besides the track. The 991.1 has had the engine issue but it was fast and the PDK is brilliant. My 991.2 Touring is, for me, the best of breed and my wife doesn’t complain as much in it. I think the 991.1 GT3 has taken a hit due to the engine issues but Porsche extended the engine warranty to ten years, it may be a great opportunity to buy a lightly used one and budget for possible issues.
Back on track with watches. McLarens are brilliant as are Ferraris but the issue is maintenance and reliability. Ferrari has come a long way and the seven year maintenance helps but they are nowhere near the reliability of the Porsches. It is like my experiences with AP and Patek, wonderful watches when they work but lord help you when you need service. Don’t even get me started with Journe...
Again, if you desire something that many people want and the supply is not there, regardless of why, the price will go up. In the case of Rolex, the price increases substantially in the secondary. You can hate on the brand all you want but as an owner of Rolex, I get it and do not agree with the idea that it is all hype and not quality.
I have owned 5 Omegas and none have held their value like my Rolex, they have also worked flawlessly but in the course of fifteen years my discount on my Speedys, Seamaster 300M and PloProf have been 35-45% new at US AD’s. I did purchase the new Speedy from the NYC Boutique upon release for list but did not like the bracelet taper, sold it without taking any financial hit but that was because no one had it.

hiroshikato1 · May 3, 2021

S.H.
Indeed I'd like to know too, because I reaaally doubt that Rolex would let the COSC be a bottleneck to their cash machine*. After all they have done over decades to streamline, the engineering, the gobbling up of suppliers, etc, that would be strange to be caught pants down with a dry pipeline because of some rubber stamping. The very idea makes me chuckle. It is only my uninformed opinion, of course.

*(I also doubt the COSC would let it happen either: I don't see the Swiss collectively shooting themselves in the foot over such a triviality. They learned a thing or two about producing watches over the years, we must give that to them)

Not sure it is a matter of being caught with your pants down. No one could have ever foreseen the issues that Covid ultimately caused last year. Governments shutting down countries has nothing to do with corporate planning or anyone shooting themselves in the foot. Most other countries in the world can order a lockdown of their country, for better or for worse, the US can not.
I have asked some questions to some folks who may or may not have any more insight to the COSC and Rolex shut downs.
Regardless, the scarcity of certain Rolex models probably does factor into secondary market prices.
If I were someone buying a watch with resale in mind, Rolex would be high on my list. But even as a collector of many manufacturers of watches, I still believe that Rolex makes a fantastic product.
Would I pay $35K for a new SS Daytona? No. At that price point the door opens to many other manufacturers and watches. Unfortunately, they will not retain their value like the 116500.
Remember SS models are not a cash cow for Rolex or the AD’s, it is the two tone and precious metal watches with and without gems.

Lurk41 · May 3, 2021

H hiroshikato1
5) Seeing less Rolex SS Subs in airport boutiques makes complete sense if you step back and look at what Rolex wants to achieve, which is not a customer buying a highly desirable watch and flying back home, but rather "relationships" between their AD's and customers
6) AD numbers have been cut over the past ten years

Isn't it counterintuitive to seek relationships by shutting down areas where relationships are built? Airport boutiques are not the only ones closing...

H hiroshikato1
Ferrari has come a long way and the seven year maintenance helps but they are nowhere near the reliability of the Porsches

And from my brother's experience, don't even put your Ferrari on a track. It will fall apart and it is not under warranty. I do not know if Porsche's warranty includes track usage, but at least a Porsche can take it. Now, do not expect Stuttgart to take care well of you as a professional driver running a Porsche. They do not really care about delivering parts on time for the next event, or even the correct part. And in the case of my brother, they were maintaining a car of one of their official WEC driver (the car was not the one for WEC). If this guy could not get a satisfactory level of support, I do not know who can...

I guess your analogy with Ferrari-Patek and Porsche-Rolex is quite adequate. 1st is really nice, does not work often and service is a nightmare. 2nd is reliable, meaning you do not have to experience their horrible customer relationship 😁

Jockywilson1 · May 3, 2021

Except Porsche has increased production year on year by double digits. If Rolex had followed suit I doubt this discussion would be taking place.

hiroshikato1 · May 3, 2021

Jockywilson1
Except Porsche has increased production year on year by double digits. If Rolex had followed suit I doubt this discussion would be taking place.

I would venture to guess that would be the SUV and electric segment, not the highly sought after GT and new 992 TurboS.
Why ramp up production if the company does not necessarily care about profits? Is that not a noble thing to be doing?
Ramp up production to do what? To reduce secondary market prices? It would be nice if it was a true direct correlation but I don’t think it is. Nothing wrong with being a little exclusive, something Omega seems to finally find worthwhile with certain watches.
The numbers don’t matter if the desire to own it is not there. The fact that Omega AD’s aren’t starting at 35% off is a start but there is a long way to go before list price is not seen as too much for most of the product line.

hiroshikato1 · May 3, 2021

Lurk41
Isn't it counterintuitive to seek relationships by shutting down areas where relationships are built? Airport boutiques are not the only ones closing...

And from my brother's experience, don't even put your Ferrari on a track. It will fall apart and it is not under warranty. I do not know if Porsche's warranty includes track usage, but at least a Porsche can take it. Now, do not expect Stuttgart to take care well of you as a professional driver running a Porsche. They do not really care about delivering parts on time for the next event, or even the correct part. And in the case of my brother, they were maintaining a car of one of their official WEC driver (the car was not the one for WEC). If this guy could not get a satisfactory level of support, I do not know who can...

I guess your analogy with Ferrari-Patek and Porsche-Rolex is quite adequate. 1st is really nice, does not work often and service is a nightmare. 2nd is reliable, meaning you do not have to experience their horrible customer relationship 😁

Bringing cars to the track is a tricky thing because some drivers have no right being out there and destroy their cars. Porsche will stand by certain issues but blatant looking issues like melted ceramic brakes will not be covered, as an owner in Dubai found out. Ferrari will never admit any wrong doing and their claim to fame is F1, where the cars really need only to finish one race...
I have no comment on the repairs of a WEC driver’s car except that you know what they say about the shoemaker...
Back to the AD shut downs. Rolex and all of the watch industry are moving to less POS (point of sale) and more direct marketing or boutiques. Richemont offering their extended warranty on new watches is a perfect example. By signing up, you agree to let them track you and sell your information down the line but you get the extended warranty. Soon there will be no or very few AD’s for all brands, which will then take care of any potential discounts. AP did it two years ago and FP Journe literally just shut down their four US AD’s.

Maganator · May 4, 2021

Maganator
So I have an appointment at my local Rolex AD tomorrow. I have been on the waitlist for the new Submariner since September 2020.

I have bought two Omegas from them in the past (both Speedy Tuesdays) but never a Rolex.

Are my chances of walking out tomorrow with the new Submariner non-existent?

p.s. it was me who set up the appointment after receiving a mail shot inviting me to.

I know you will all have been waiting with baited breath for an update...

They couldn't even tell me what year I would be able to buy it in 😁 - only that I was on their list and moving in the 'right direction'. To be fair to them they had no idea how may watches they would actually be getting from Rolex over the next few months so it wasn't a complete brush off.

Davidt · May 4, 2021

Maganator
I know you will all have been waiting with baited breath for an update...

They couldn't even tell me what year I would be able to buy it in 😁 - only that I was on their list and moving in the 'right direction'. To be fair to them they had no idea how may watches they would actually be getting from Rolex over the next few months so it wasn't a complete brush off.

So what was the appointment for? Just to toy with you for a while?

Jockywilson1 · May 4, 2021

Maganator
I know you will all have been waiting with baited breath for an update...

They couldn't even tell me what year I would be able to buy it in 😁 - only that I was on their list and moving in the 'right direction'. To be fair to them they had no idea how may watches they would actually be getting from Rolex over the next few months so it wasn't a complete brush off.

Did they try to sell you a non SS model?

jaguar11 · May 4, 2021

Same old same old..... I remember the same question in the days of Windows 95 and dial up. The answer is outthere!

DoctorEvil · May 4, 2021

Maganator
I know you will all have been waiting with baited breath for an update...

They couldn't even tell me what year I would be able to buy it in 😁 - only that I was on their list and moving in the 'right direction'. To be fair to them they had no idea how may watches they would actually be getting from Rolex over the next few months so it wasn't a complete brush off.

What a waste of time. They could have told you this via e-mail or a phone call. Did they at least give you a decent cup of coffee or a champagne?

southtexas · May 10, 2021

Archer
It's an interesting insight into how Rolex works, more than anything.

Based on this, Rolex in fact does limit supply, and to get a "limited supply" model, you simply can't walk in off the street, or simply put your name on a waiting list. You have to have a verified history of buying certain products. So if an AD has taken your name down on a list, and you don't have that history, you won't be getting the watch...

My buddy walked into an AD in Houston, chatted up the sales manager, put his name on a list for 3 sport models, got 2 out of the 3 in 4 months. Zero prior history. Anecdotal or normal...I have no way of knowing.

DoctorEvil · May 11, 2021

southtexas
My buddy walked into an AD in Houston, chatted up the sales manager, put his name on a list for 3 sport models, got 2 out of the 3 in 4 months. Zero prior history. Anecdotal or normal...I have no way of knowing.

Lucky bastard. I'm guessing that they were willing to bump him to the top of the list if he appeared to be a serious buyer and was going to purchase all three watches.

Archer · May 11, 2021

southtexas
My buddy walked into an AD in Houston, chatted up the sales manager, put his name on a list for 3 sport models, got 2 out of the 3 in 4 months. Zero prior history. Anecdotal or normal...I have no way of knowing.

The question is, are these what Rolex considers "limited supply" models? Of course only Rolex and the AD's knows what those models are, but I suspect these are watches like the SS Daytona, rather than the watches that are now suddenly scarce but have always been readily available.

itsalex · May 11, 2021

southtexas
My buddy walked into an AD in Houston, chatted up the sales manager, put his name on a list for 3 sport models, got 2 out of the 3 in 4 months. Zero prior history. Anecdotal or normal...I have no way of knowing.

I would imagine availability is highly localized too - in an area with high demand it just stretches out the wait list time - anecdotally it doesn't seem that Rolex gives that much more inventory to ADs or boutiques in areas with high demand.

Donn Chambers · May 12, 2021

Just stopped by one of the local ADs in Tampa because my wife wanted to go to the mall for some new clothes - showcases were completely empty except for two smallish gold Datejusts in the window. There was a younger guy (college-aged) placing an order for a new sub. I overheard part of the conversation - 50% down, likely wouldn’t have it for at least 6 months.

Crazy. He could have walked over to the Omega counter and but that 50%-down money for a new Seamaster and walked out of the store with it and enough left over for a nice meal.

when people are willing to shell out thousands of dollars on the promise they will get a watch sometime in the future, this Rolex shortage will not be ending my time soon.

I don't understand the recent Rolex SS craze/shortage. What am I missing?

Archer

rfcs

S.H.

Maganator

hiroshikato1

hiroshikato1

Lurk41

Jockywilson1

hiroshikato1

hiroshikato1

Maganator

Davidt

Jockywilson1

jaguar11

DoctorEvil

southtexas

DoctorEvil

Archer

itsalex

Donn Chambers

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