Meanwhile, as another mentioned just above, while AD cases are empty, Chrono 24 is PACKED FULL of Rolex. And, I assume that for every 1 on Chrono 24, there are at least a handful more in safes “to appreciate,” in other sales platforms (eg IG), etc.
Rolex is no longer selling its most popular models, but still manages to keep outselling its next closest competitor’s entire catalogue by an order of magnitude, and growing the gap each year.
my thinking is coming round to the notion that maybe Rolex’s has shifted its production to a more global offering. If they are indeed making the same number of watches, with the growth in China and India that must have occurred, then it would be sensible to assume that an awful lot more watches are being shipped to these regions. This would lead to a dearth in stock in more traditional markets (uk, us etc). And it’s also very plausible that the most popular models in these newer markets are in fact not SS models (a valid point I think you made before). Maybe a UK based customer who wants to buy a Submariner isn’t necessarily Rolex’s highest priority, or at least not as important as they once were.
or
As I have said years ago before you got here. Several years ago Rolex got caught holding the bag with a lot of Datejusts (not just a lot I mean a couple hundred thousand ) when China banned giving gifts of expensive watches and they are making people buy up all of these before they get what they want being a SS model. ( which aren’t the biggest sellers in China )
Why else would they want people to buy 3 datejusts to get a Sub or GMT...
Genuinely interested in this as I don’t know about it, when did this happen? But also if this did occur wouldn’t you give them some credit for avoiding the mistakes of the past all over again by limiting production so that every watch now sells?
Interesting, but we have to assume that if there was a datejust mountain it’s long been depleted by now. I’m not pretending to know why the average customer can’t buy a sub, I range between Rolex being evil geniuses to a sensible well run company.
Maybe a UK based customer who wants to buy a Submariner isn’t necessarily Rolex’s highest priority, or at least not as important as they once were.
2) The bottleneck in manufacturing may be the COSC process, which may or may not be less of an issue since Omega's large departure from this movement certification process
Hiro
Regardless, whether or not we know what the issues are, the one thing that can not be denied is that the demand for Rolex is huge and people are willing to pay for Rolex. (Also for Porsche, try buying a TurboS or GT3)
Hiro
Thank you for that clarification Al, in which case the bottleneck is even worse...
Although I like your car analogy (using Porsche as an example), I have to say that it doesn't quite stack up. For starters, I'm willing to bet that I wouldn't be forced to buy a Cayman or Cayenne from my local dealer just to get on the wait list for a GT3. If I rocked up there with a suitcase full of cash and wanted a Porsche, they'd happily take a deposit and I'd get my hands on one in a timely fashion. Maybe no more than 6-12 month wait depending on the model (GT3 may be longer?). I also wouldn't have to pay ridiculous prices for a used one on the secondary market.
Like many on this forum, I'd love to add a Rolex to my collection as I've heard what great watches they are and want to see it for myself. For me, being an aviation enthusiast, the GMT2 really speaks to me. However, I just don't have the time or the inclination to play silly games and have a "relationship" with an AD/Boutique just to get one and I'm sure many here feel the same. If it means that I miss out on a watch for now, then so be it. I'll be patient and bide my time.
Not sure why you would think COSC is a bottleneck, in particular with production down in 2020. They don’t publish numbers anymore, so did you get information that this is actually happening, or is this just your theory?
Actually, my analogy is more than stacks up. Do you know what the market is with Porsche GT cars?
Even if you went to one with a briefcase full of cash, which by the way is completely counterproductive as the dealership makes more money if you finance, you will never get a GT3. You can pay $30K over sticker and maybe they will let you buy a dealer spec’ed car.
So, if you would like to buy a GT3 at sticker price then say hello to buying a Cayenne, a Macan Turbo and maybe a Taycan. Then maybe they will offer a build 18 months from now. Yes, buying a Cayman will not get you a place in line.
Now where my analogy falls apart is that a Porsche dealer is allowed to place an ADM (Adjusted Dealer Markup) on the vehicle whereas Rolex forbids AD’s from marking up new watches.
And as far as the secondary market analogy, look at the price of my 2019 GT3 Touring. Even with 5K mikes on the odometer I have been offered $30K more than I paid new two years ago.
Does it stink for people who want to get their first GT3? Yes. Although if you are an owner, you now appreciate the car even more because in reality having an appreciating modern vehicle is a true unicorn.
For starters, I'm willing to bet that I wouldn't be forced to buy a Cayman or Cayenne from my local dealer just to get on the wait list for a GT3.
I don’t know about Porsche, but with Ferrari and similar brands of high end cars, you must absolutely purchase “standard” vehicles to get considered for the “hot” vehicles.
And then you must purchase several of the “hot” vehicles to be considered for the limited edition type vehicles.
This type of structure is longstanding and widespread in the luxury market
Please read my post a bit more closely. I said I'd rock up with a suitcase full of cash to buy a "Porsche", not specifically a GT3.
Yes, I'd agree that the GT3 is something special. But the other Porsches are as you say, "dealer specced" and mass produced. So I shouldn't have to jump through hoops or buy a car I didn't really want just to get a mass produced car that I do want. Similarly the Sub, GMT2, Daytona, Explorers etc are mass produced watches. They are not limited editions or made in small numbers like a GT3. If they're mass produced, then I really can't understand why is there so much hype and are they really that good to justify all the trouble getting one? Then again as another poster mentioned earlier in this thread buying a car or a watch is a highly emotive exercise and when emotions are involved, all logic can go out the window.
